Obama in a Blowout: The Presidential Election Will Not Be Close

[CaliforniaPeggy]

Back in June, 2008, this AlterNet author (Guy T. Saperstein) got it exactly right...

Check it out:

In early December 2007, at a time when Hillary Clinton was tracking 20-plus points ahead of the Democratic field in national polls, I published an article contending that Hillary Clinton was an inherently weak candidate, a beatable candidate, and that Barack Obama would be a stronger match against Republicans.

I argued that she had the highest "unfavorable" rating of anyone who ever had run for the presidency; that she was the only Democratic candidate who could unite and energize the Republican base; that she was running 10 to 15 points behind in generic Democrat vs. Republican presidential polls; that her head-to-head matchups with the Republican candidates were poor; that in Iowa, where she was the only female candidate with seven men, she was polling only 26 percent; that several Democratic U.S. Senate candidates had told me she would pull the ticket down in their states; and that Bill was a potentially large, uncontrollable liability (even I did not know how true that prediction would become!). Hillary never was "inevitable." The evidence of her imminent demise was there for anyone who wanted to look.

OK, that was then, this is now.

The November presidential election is not going to be close. Barack Obama is going to beat John McCain by 8 to 10 points in the national popular vote and win 300 to 350 electoral votes. Obama is going to wipe out McCain mano a mano.

I am far more confident making this prediction than I was in predicting Hillary's demise. There are many reasons why.

More, much more, and all of it very readable, at link:

http://www.alternet.org/module/printversion/87225

[wyldwolf]

1. not to rehash the primaries since we're all united behind Obama... but..

Obama won for a variety of reasons, two big ones being the public's disapproval for the Republican party and the weakness of the Republican ticket. That being said, most any Democrat would have won, IMO. In fact, since we're both discussing hypotheticals, I contend Obama may have done worse than some other candidates would have.

she (Hillary) was the only Democratic candidate who could unite and energize the Republican base;

But Obama DID unite and energize the Republican base. That's where McCain's votes came from. That's where the death threats against Obama are coming from. Those are the ones kicking kids off school buses and forbidding Obama's name to be mentioned in gym classes.

And in the final months of the primary campaign, the unfavorable ratings of Obama and Clinton were not that far apart.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

2. I did not mean to rehash the primaries...

But to point out just how right this author was about the general election ...I mean, he was prescient!

[wyldwolf]

3. he was certainly correct about the outcome...

[Touchdown]

4. Not to mention selectively handing out candy to only McCain kids.

That woman still infuriates me!:grr:

[ROh70]

5. There's a reason why Clinton's and Obama's favorables were not far apart.

at the end of the primary campaign - Obama stopped campaigning against her after Indiana and North Carolina. Hillary basically had free reign to continue to attack Obama without getting hit back for about a month.

Chuck Todd says this often happens when a front-runner in the primary continues to be challenged by someone who is clearly going to lose. So, the front-runner ignores the challenger, and the challengers favorables go up, but, of course, still end up losing.

[wyldwolf]

13. I didn't say "at the end." I said "in the final months."

And the reason was the electorate got to know Obama better.

[liberaltrucker]

6. And it was!

Next week's Powerball numbers would be nice! C'mon, give 'em up!

:loveya:

:hug:

[CaliforniaPeggy]

8. My dear liberaltrucker!

Now, sweetie! Do you think for a minute that if I knew them, I'd tell anyone???:P

I would for you!

Thanks...

:loveya:

:hug:

[liberaltrucker]

12. I know

;)

[Eric J in MN]

7. Obama didn't win "300 to 350 electoral votes."

Obama won at least 365, with Missouri still undecided.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

9. I grant you that!

But he was in the right ballpark!

[MadBadger]

10. His prediction was much like many people here, except we werent as vague (300-350)

[CaliforniaPeggy]

11. Correct...

But this author put it in writing, for all the world to see...

That's a little different than posting on a message board, even this one.

:shrug: