Enegerized Dems; Demoralized GOP = Victory for the Good Guys

[kennetha]

This interesting article in the NYT -- about how Obama got no more votes than Kerry in Ohio, but McCain way underperformed Bush -- sent me looking for more evidence of Dem vs Repugnant turnout.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/us/politics/10caucus.html?partner=permalink&exprod=permalink">Democrats Have G.O.P. to Thank, at Least in Part


What I found was interesting. It looks like a mixed bag. In some places, the total turnout seems to have been down largely beacuse Republicans sat this one out. In other places, McCain matched Bush's 2004 totals but got swamped nonetheless by huge increases in the democratic totals.


California »
Obama 6,374,619 61%
McCain 3,871,760 37%
100% of precincts reporting

Kerry 6,745,485 54% 100% of precincts reporting
Bush 5,509,826 45%

Obama underperformed Kerry, but Bush WAY overperformed McCain. Looks like Republicans in California simply stayed home in droves, despite prop 8, which should have pulled then out of the woodwork.

Washington
Kerry 1,510,201 53% 100% of precincts reporting
Bush 1,304,894 46%

Obama
1,547,632 58%
McCain 1,097,176 41%
93% of precincts reporting

Still some votes to be counted here, but Washington looks comparable to California. Obama's vote just barely tops Kerry's numbers, while McCain significantly underperforms Bush. Again, it looks like Republicans stayed at home.

Oregon
Kerry 943,163 52% 100% of precincts reporting
Bush 866,831 48%

Obama 978,605 57%
McCain 699,673 41%
97% of precincts reporting

Again, another place where Republicans appear to have stayed home in significant numbers. Obama barely tops Kerry McCain way underperforms Bush.


But it wasn't just a matter of Republicans staying home. There are also places where McCain roughly equalled Bush, but Obama way surpassed Kerry -- Florida, Virginia, North Carolina are just three examples:

Florida:
Obama 4,143,957 51%
McCain 3,939,380 49%
100% of precincts reporting

Bush 3,964,522 52% 100% of precincts reporting
Kerry 3,583,544 47%

McCain got the republicans to turn out here in roughly the same numbers that Bush did. . But Obama got a lot more dems and independents to turn out than Kerry did. Bravo! In Fla democratic energy must have been awesome.


North Carolina:
Bush 1,961,166 56% 100% of precincts reporting
Kerry 1,525,849 44%

Obama 2,123,395 50%
McCain 2,109,402 49%
100% of precincts reporting

NC is one of the few places where McCain actually seems to have energized his base and turned them out in higher numbers than Bush did. But he still got beat by even more energized dems. . Betcha that hurts!

And in Virginia, we have these striking numbers.

Obama 1,905,588 53%
McCain 1,703,478 47%
99% of precincts reporting

Bush 1,716,959 54% 100% of precincts reporting
Kerry 1,454,742 46%

Obama once again have McCain a pretty good shellacking even though McCain matched Bush almost vote for vote. Again, I don't think you can say Republicans stayed home in Virginia. Here it looks like a matter of a lot more dems and probably independents turning out.

What's the bottom line? Obama Won!

But it does seems that in places Republicans did stay home in droves. They exceeded their 2004 numbers in very, very few places. Where they did, they still lost because Dems turned out in significantly higher numbers in many of those places -- but certainly not everywhere. The combination of Republican demoralization and increased Democratic enthusiasm in certain well-targeted states seems to have been the key for Obama.

[kennetha]

1. ...

[nyc 4 Biden]

2. I'm surprised to see...

Kerry drew more voters than Obama in these states.