PPP PA Senate Poll: Specter 40, Matthews 27

[MadBadger]

WHo is this Matthews you ask? Ahh yes, its Chris Matthews, otherwise known as Tweety. Obviously we dont know if Tweety is running, and these numbers are the way they are because Tweety doesnt have the hightest name recognition yet. Bad news is that Specter is so low.

look at a potential 2010 match up for US Senate between MSNBC host Chris Matthews and long time Republican incumbent Arlen Specter brings good news for both candidates

The good news for Specter:

-He's winning. It's always better to be winning than losing.

-30% of Democrats say they would support him in such a contest.

-Matthews lead him only 31-25 among black voters.

The good news for Matthews:

-People are at least open to the possibility of voting for him, hence Specter's standing well below 50%, usually not good news for an incumbent.

-There's an indication that his celebrity could help bring him some crossover support. Specter is carrying only 50% of the Republican vote (that could also be people who would like to see him taken out in the primary sitting on their hands.)

-Matthews has a double digit lead with voters under 30. His candidacy could result in young, Democratic leaning voters being more engaged in a midterm election than they usually are.

The bottom line?

Specter would certainly start out favored, but a Matthews candidacy is by no means a non starter. He would have a fighting chance with a strong campaign.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/11/matthewsspecter-early-look.html

[bluestateguy]

1. There is a law against polling up to 3 months after an election

No, not really.

But there should be.

[MadBadger]

2. Its only two years away.

[DaveinMD]

3. that would be fun

The debates could be legendary.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

5. He would be an entertaining candidate...

[kirby]

6. Not really...

The opponent would never get a chance to speak and Matthews would just look like an idiot...

[AlCzervik]

4. if he does run the rnc will mine through years of his tv shows and use many of his statements

against him. It would be a fun race to watch.

[Occam Bandage]

27. It'll be the Franken race all over again.

Not sure why we'd want to do that, but sure, let's go ahead and put the egos of entertainers above our party's electoral chances.

[CreekDog]

7. Let's play Oddball

[ClarkUSA]

8. Any incumbent polling under 50 is in trouble. 40 is abysmal.

Spector is low-hanging fruit. I'm ready to go to work for Matthews or any Democratic opponent (Matthews would have the best
chance of unseating Spector, however). President Obama, Gov. Rendell and Mayor Nutter will be right there, too.

[MadBadger]

10. I think if Joe Sestak were to run, he would have the best opportunity actually

[MH1]

11. I think Sestak will run.

I hope Matthews doesn't have his heart set on it too much, and recognizes that Sestak will be a much better candidate.

[ClarkUSA]

13. We'll see. Sestak has zero charisma and an awkward public persona which doesn't bode well.

I'm not a big Sestak fan -- he was a shamelessly lying Hillaryland fool/tool during the primaries. He also has a Captain Queeg
reputation in the Capitol for being way too hard/rude to his Congressional staff - there's been a very high turnover rate. I'll
bet we'd be treated to some pretty unflattering stories in the press from ex-staffers and aides about their former boss... no
thanks!

I prefer Matthews. He knows how the Capitol works from top to bottom, having been Tip O'Neill's chief of staff after he was
Pres. Jimmy Carter's speechwriter before and after he was elected. I'm sure Matthews won't run unless he knows he has a
good chance of winning (money + endorsements + grassroots support), so it's too soon to tell but I'm hoping.

[AllentownJake]

18. Patrick Murphy would be a better candidate

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Murphy_(politician)

Look for Charlie Dent to be the GOP nominee. Specter isn't running again

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Dent

[MadBadger]

20. I like Murphy a lot.

[AllentownJake]

22. He's young too

Moderate and a war veteran. Could hold the seat for a long time.

[pgh_dem]

24. Howabout Mike Doyle?

Everytime I've ever sent one of those National Resources Defense Council 'Save the Rainforest/Seals/PolarBears/World from Logging/Clubbing/Warming/ReallyWarming' emails or other similar things, I always got a reply (sometimes a mailed reply) that Doyle had already voted on my side, co-sponsored the bill etc.

I know he was kind of late in picking sides in the Obama/Clinton contest, but he didn't disparage either candidate before PA or after.
He did give a great rousing speech at Obama's last Pgh appearance before the GE, and stumped around his district in support.

He may have no interest in leaving the US House, but he seems like an alright guy for a politician.

Why isn't Ed Rendell interested? (not that I'm a big fan)

[Metta]

9. Spector is a lying, two faced, dyed in the wool Republican traitor.

Says what he thinks you want to hear and then votes against democracy every time.

[BumRushDaShow]

12. Matthews' brother is a repuke County Commissioner in Montgomery county

So would Tweety run as a Democrat or a repuke? The only reason why Specter is in there is because of that 30%, which consists of stupid Democrats from Philadelphia.

IF if, Specter decides to sit it out and IF a former repuke PA governor's son (Bill Scranton III) decides to go for this rather than governor to replace Fast Eddie in 2010 (which is being rumored), he might capture indies because of his unconventionalist lifestyle, and he might give Tweety a run for his money.

[MadBadger]

14. SO what if his brother is a repuke? Do you have the same political affiliation of all of ur family?

[BumRushDaShow]

21. I was just asking what party he would be running under

considering that he admits to having voted for Bush and the articles don't really say whether he would run against Specter as a Democrat in a general or a repuke in a primary. Specter used to be a Democrat back in the day and is a social liberal, and his social record attracts the Philadelphia Democratic vote for some dumb reason. Given the county that his brother is in just recently tipped to Democrat, he could actually run as a repuke, and probably capture alot of votes from both sides.

And yes, ALL of my family are Democrats. Why is this unusual? :shrug:

[Captain Hilts]

15. Matthews is also a sexist jerk. No way. nt

[MadBadger]

16. While I disagree with you, I think that this belief will severely hurt him.

[Captain Hilts]

17. I saw it. It's an observation, not an opinion.

The leering he did at female guests and the derisive name-calling is okay with you?

[MadBadger]

19. No, it is an opinion. I think he just didnt like Hillary

Like with many, it wasnt the gender, it was the specific woman. And I didnt notice this leering at female guests.

[Captain Hilts]

26. So, it's okay for him to engage in sophmoric name-calling?

And, you just didn't notice when he leered at female guests. There were several threads here - with youtube clips - about his staring down one woman guest's shirt.

He's a shit. And his health is lousy.

[MadBadger]

28. Staring down a woman's shirt....HA!

Good one...you're funny.

[mvd]

23. I don't think Rendell will run, will he?

He'd have a good chance. This is just another name to throw out: maybe Lois Murphy? I think we can do better than Matthews (though I'm stumped) - but these numbers are good for this early.

[ClarkUSA]

25. All bets are off if Rendell runs. Problem is, he and Spector are very close friends.

I doubt he would run for that reason. I can't see him eviscerating Spector. Now if Spector resigns, then I can see him considering it.