Myths that were busted by the 2008 election results:

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

I'll start with a few that were primarily directed towards Obama from the Hillary camp during the primaries, that were advanced as a rationale for choosing Hillary Clinton over Obama ("he can't WIN"). I don't know if the Hillary camp actually believed any of these or were just using them to win over superdelegates, but I'm sure they didn't believe all of them. Feel free to add others, including ones that don't relate to Obama:

-Hispanics won't vote for a black dude. Apparently they will, to the tune of a 2:1 ratio.

-Obama will have trouble winning the major Democratic stronghold states (PA, NJ etc.), because he didn't win them in the primaries.

-Obama won't win any of those "Red" states he's been campaigning in, it's a pipe dream, those states will NEVER vote for a Democrat, particularly not a bl.. well, you know what I mean! (Wins in IN, VA, and NC say otherwise.)

-Obama cannot win in Florida, Jewish voters won't vote for him. (Actually, they did.)

-Youth vote won't make a difference, they never do! While it's true that overall youth turnout was less than general turnout (low 50's versus 64 percentish), not only was it higher than in previous elections including '04, because it preferred Obama by a 2 to 1 ratio, it was definitely enough to account for the win in close states like IN and NC, and on the whole, over 70 electoral votes worth, more than enough to swing a difference in a closer race. (I like this "2 to 1 ratio" thing, it's becoming kind of a theme!)

I realize that external events like the financial implosion had substantial impact on the race, but they always do (Reagan/Carter and the Iran hostage crisis, etc.), so you can't really "factor them out" and extrapolate what would have happened otherwise.

Feel free to add your own busted myths. I realize that a number of political stereotypes were confirmed or reinforced in this election too.

[Muttocracy]

1. A Dem must be a Southern governor to win the White House. nt

[Lerkfish]

2. you already covered most of mine, I might add: He's not tough enough to withstand the inevitable

attacks.

[rucky]

3. Bradley Effect

[rucky]

4. Negative campaigning works.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

13. I forgot to add this to the original list. It's probably my favorite one, overall.

[VeraAgnes]

5. That is as powerful

as masterbating to a Hustler Magazine. Thanks for sharing.

[Gman]

6. I don't think the youth vote was any more than it ususally is

I haven't seen empirical data yet, but that's what I've heard and read from several sources.

The same argument about the youth making a difference in IN and NC can also be made of Catholics, Blacks, and even (probably most likely) Republicans voting for Obama.

Youth not voting is not a myth but a verified fact. There's no reason to think anything different this election.

But the one that surprised me was Hispanics voting for Obama. Credit Hillary and the community leaders on this one. The grassroots followed their lead.

[muriel_volestrangler]

12. CNN exit polls say youth (18-29) was 18% this time, v. 17% last time

so no, not a significant difference in size; but the exit polls say 66:32 this time, as opposed to 54:45 for Kerry:Bush.

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

With the overall turnout actually about the same as before, I think, the change in the total numbers of voters in age groups is actually at the top - far fewer 65+ voters (from 24% to 16%) and more 45-59 (from 30% to 37%). So, this time, the oldest age group was about as apathetic as the youngest.

[MsTryska]

7. The most importanta myth and the one I was utterly convinced of

"america is not ready to elect a black president"


I am proud to have been proven wrong.

[Nia Zuri]

8. As goes MIsourri, so goes the election

[chiefofclarinet]

9. John McCain is a good Republican

:yoiks:

[Ino]

10. Obama needs Hillary as VP to win (nt)

[zbdent]

11. Rush Limbaugh represents the "real" majority of America

[mucifer]

14. Jewish vote 78% proObama!

[Undercurrent]

15. Two more:

America is a center right nation.

John McCain is a man of honor.

[avaistheone1]

16. Dean's 50 state strategy won't work.

That myth was blown to smithereens. Obama (and Dean) were victorious contrary to what Rahm Emmanuel thought.