Analysis of Missouri voting trends: What Obama did and what he needs to do in 2012

[usregimechange]

Obama did significantly better in Missouri compared to 2004 though it appears that he will lose Missouri by less than .1% or around 3,000 votes out of 2,883,610. Missouri is the only state left to not be called for either candidate. How did he do it and what does he need to do to carry the state in 2012?


Southwest Missouri

Obama improved in every county in Southwest Missouri (SWMO) relative to the 2004 election. This area is considered Missouri’s most reliable Republican stronghold and the only whole part of the state Bill Clinton lost in 1992 and 1996.

Most notably Obama improved significantly in Greene County, SWMO’s most populous county with 240,391 people or 356 persons per square mile (Census, 2000). Kerry lost Greene County (Springfield metro) by 25% and Obama lost by 16% an improvement of 9%. Obama improved by the same amount in SWMO’s second most populous county, Jasper County (Joplin metro) losing the county by 33% instead of 42%.


Southeast Missouri
In Southeast Missouri Obama fared the worst especially in the Bootheel. However, the majority of SEMO counties still reflected the statewide improvement for the Democratic Party’s nominee.

Pemiscott County along the Mississippi river and in the Missouri Bootheel experienced the greatest percentage in vote shift in favor of the Republicans than any county in Missouri. This is surprising given that this county has a significant African American population for rural Missouri (26%, the second highest concentration in the State). Obama did 13% worse there than Kerry did in 2004. In Shannon County Missouri Obama improved by 10%. Obama also did well in Iron County which Kerry lost by 7% and Obama carried by 3%, which was 1 of the 9 counties carried by the President elect.


Central Missouri

Obama improved in all of central Missouri. In three counties the vote shift in favor of the Democratic nominee was in the double digits relative to 2004.

In 2004 Kerry lost in every county in central Missouri. The most dramatic vote shift occurred in Boone county Missouri, home of Missouri University. This county was split basically 50-50 in 2004 and 2000. Obama won Boone by 12% gaining more than 10,000 votes. Obama even did better in this county than Bill Clinton in both 1992 and 1996. He beat Hillary Clinton there 61%-37%. Boone County has a significant educated and young population compared to state averages. A likely demographic target for the historic Obama campaign ground game.


Northern Missouri

The only county Obama carried in the entire northern part of the state was Buchanan County and he only carried it by 47 votes. The only County Obama won in the Missouri primaries against Hillary Clinton was Nodaway County where he also improved relative to Kerry, likely because of the presence of Northwest Missouri State University.


Kansas City

While Obama limited the damage in rural Missouri he also ran up the numbers in the urban centers. Kerry won Jackson County 58%-41%, Obama carried the county 62%-37%. While an 8% swing may not seem like a lot, in a well populated county it amounts to tens of thousands of votes. He gained approximately 85,000 votes out of Jackson County, while Kerry gained about 50,000 and Gore about 55,000.


St. Louis Metro Area
In St. Louis City, Obama improved about 8% relative to 2004. In fact, he out-performed Bill Clinton in St. Louis City by 16% in 1992 and 11% in 1996. Obama gained 108,000 votes out of St. Louis City compared to the following vote gains from previous Democratic nominees: Kerry +89,000, Gore +72,000, Clinton (1996) +69,000, Clinton (1992) 77,000.

St. Louis County swung massively to the President elect. He improved by 11% from 2004 and 11% in the States most populated county amounted to a staggering gain of more than 110,000 votes. Kerry only gained about 50,000 votes from this County, Gore about 25,000. Obama carried the county by 20% or 60%-40%.

Obama carried three counties directly south of St. Louis County. Obama won in Washington county by 9 votes, carried Jefferson County by about 3,000 votes, and won Ste. Genevieve County by 56%.


How to turn Missouri blue

Obama did what he needed to do to win Missouri. He limited the rural spreads and increased the urban vote impressively. Simply doing what was done but doing it .1% more would turn Missouri blue.

Obama should be able to improve spreads in the Bootheel. This area is not vote rich by any means but there is no reason whatsoever that it should be trending Republican. Who was in charge of GOTV there? I recommend promoting and hiring Cecil Hinds-Riddle who was instrumental in swinging SWMO.

I also believe the key to winning Missouri in 2012 will need to include the addition of a focus on suburban Missouri. For example, if Obama can win Clay and Ray counties just north of KC (counties Al Gore carried in 2000) it might be the Republican nominee with a sudden interest in provisional ballots.


Maps


NYT, 2008



NYT, 2008

[mihalevich]

1. NTL here green county reporting

We did all we could, thank you Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kanas. We lost the battle but won the war. We shifted massive amounts of Mccain resources to a red state, and helped Obama win others. Were still here, and ready to go!

[usregimechange]

2. You guys did great in Greene County! Massive rally, 9% Dem trend, damn good job!

[usregimechange]

3. I sent off an e-mail with a contact in Pemiscott County to try and determine what happened there

I will post it when he responds.

[gratefultobelib]

4. Thank you for this report. We worked so hard for Obama here in Jackson

County! We did carry the county, but only because of KC. In eastern Jackson where I live, it is fairly conservative as we found out in our canvassing and phone banking.

Getting good, dependable volunteers was a problem. We were told "100 volunteers" from out of state would be coming for 1-2 weeks, but this never materialized. We got ONE for a week, and another for 4 days, plus a few from Kansas for GOTV.

I was an NTL and I've never worked for a political campaign like I did this time (and I'm 66 yrs old!), but I'll tell you, it was a great experience, and I met some terrific people. I'm ready to go again if the old body holds up!

Don't you think early voting would have carried the state for Obama, considering the number of provisional ballots cast on Election Day?

[usregimechange]

6. It would have helped a bit and Carnahan is advocating for it, we should write our reps

[Thrill]

5. This is probably why Claire McCaskill would take an administration job

Too much damn hard work to win that state