Who's Afraid of a Filibuster?

[DainBramaged]

While the ultimate occupants of three United States Senate seats are yet to be determined in Alaska, Georgia, and Minnesota, chances seem small that Democrats will increase their new majority to 60 seats – the supermajority that insures against a successful filibuster. So the same Republicans who once complained about the use of that legislative weapon by the opposition now brandish it in warning to President-elect Barack Obama.

Nobody can doubt that the Republican remnant in the Senate will obstruct as soon as that seems politically safe. Right-wing pundits, from Rush Limbaugh to the Wall Street Journal editorial page are already egging them on furiously. But is there enough muscle behind that filibuster threat to block Mr. Obama’s mandate?

The short answer is no – and the new president’s own political arsenal should enable him to call the Republican bluff.

Let’s count the actual votes on the Republican side of the aisle, asking which Senators would have both the inclination and the will to join a filibuster. Every issue calls forth different levels of resistance, of course, but in each instance the opposition would need at least 41 total. In the very worst case, should the Republicans pick up all the remaining seats, they will begin with three more than that.

Six Senate Republicans will face reelection two years hence in states that went for Mr. Obama: Judd Gregg (R-NH), Arlen Specter (R- PA), George Voinovich (R-OH), Mel Martinez (R-FL), Chuck Grassley (R- IA), and Richard Burr (R-NC). Having seen their fellow incumbents fall in the last two elections, that half dozen may well consider themselves in varying degrees of political peril. Poor Mr. Gregg watched his New Hampshire colleague John Sununu drop this year as their state turned deep blue. Mr. Martinez won his seat in 2004 by a single point and is widely considered vulnerable. So are Mr. Specter, nearing his 80th birthday, and Mr. Voinovich, now 72.

Several other Republican incumbents may confront difficult reelection races in 2010 too, including Kit Bond (R-MO), whose state went for John McCain by a miniscule margin (many votes fewer than the number who voted for Ralph Nader). Nor should we forget Jim Bunning (R-KY), 77 years old and aging badly, who was nearly taken out in 2004 by an underfunded, little-known Democrat. Recent polls show him sinking.

http://www.observer.com/2008/politics/whos-afraid-filibuster

One of my favorite people, Joe Conason, who doesn't get enough face time in the MSM.

[BrklynLiberal]

1. I agree that Joe Conason is very under appreciated.

Rachel Maddow has had him on a couple of times...

I believe that back when Al Franken had his show on AAR, Conason was a frequent guest.

[tblue]

6. You're right! I miss him and that show.

[tblue]

2. Fascinating. I really appreciate this new perspective.

We have to stop cowering over 'what ifs' and just go ahead and do the right thing. If a handful of right-wingers derail congress and the important changes the Democrats were elected to implement, the fillibusterers obstruct at their own peril. Bring it.

[BrklynLiberal]

3. And this article reinforces my feeling that LIEberman must be tossed to the curb.

[tblue]

4. Did you see Evan Bayh make the case for keeping LIEberman in his Homeland Sec chairmanship?

It was on Rachel Maddow's tv show today.

He made a good argument. And, trust me, I can't stand Joe the Ho.

[azurnoir]

8. If the vote goes to keep him Lieberman that is

is it "forever" or just until after Jan 20? Is Lieberman being kept around pending the outcome of the three undecided Senate races?
Wouldn't it be ironic if the republicans tried to vote him out for just that reason? It is a secret ballot and the "blame" or congratulations would most likely go to the Democrats.

[BrklynLiberal]

13. I missed it. Could you give me a synopsis? I am open to being convinced.

[PFunk]

5. Joe was the only reason why I listened to Franklin.

Many times Joe was spot on. I hope Rachael gives him a regular weekly spot. The guy does need more screen time.

[sampsonblk]

7. I dissent

I really think this is wrong-headed thinking.

The Reagan coalition is disintegrating. Rather than force individual issues which will help it to reconstitute, we should be focusing on key issues to help bring about that disintegration.

I think Obama gets it. He is an outstanding politician. And although he hasn't said it (thank God) the buzz from his team sounds like exactly what we need to be doing.

Harry Reid never asked for my advice. But if he did, I'd tell him to force issues that their base will hate them for, not issues that will rally their base behind them.

[bridgit]

9. I love Fili Buster's hip hop rhymes

:headbang:

[cooolandrew]

10. I think these Republicans should play along or watch the power of the liberal tsunami.>

If they pass legislation like good senators we may spare their seat but if play up, then they need to get the scuba diving suite because the liberal tsunami is coming their way. CHANGE!! IT'S CHANGE!! :woohoo:

[Monk06]

11. I see the dems stroking Leiberman until they get Alaska and Minnissota and then the bets are off

[BumRushDaShow]

12. Specter is no in peril.

He's been in there for almost 30 years, is a pro-choice social liberal and former Democrat (many years ago). He has Philadelphians mesmerized with his deep roots here in the city (former DA) and bringing the bacon home, and unless he decides to step down for health reasons, he ain't going nowhere unfortunately.

[iceman66]

14. One thing Harry Reid should have done two years ago

is insist that the Repugs ACTUALLY FILLIBUSTER if they want to block something, not just threaten to fillibuster.

I suspect that if we only called their bluff, more often than not they would back down!