Steven's Pollster, " Race is Over..Begich will win."

[Stuart G]

Source: Huffington Post.





Alaska-based GOP pollster David Dittman, who worked for Sen. Ted Stevens during this year's primary race, believes Democratic challenger Mark Begich is all but certain to expand his current razor-thin lead and snatch the seat.

"I don't think Stevens can come back," Dittman said, noting that he thinks the remaining trove of uncounted ballots will help Begich "increase his lead."

Even if Begich's advantage grows, however, Dittman believes it's highly unlikely that Stevens will concede the race until every last ballot is counted. "He's probably waiting in Washington," Dittman said. "I haven't talked to him since the evening of the election, when I called and just told him I was sorry for the way it turned out."

Dittman believes early and absentee ballots, which compromise the approximately 40,000 votes left to count, will likely reflect Begichs' overall advantage so far among those who took advantage of either process. Heavy early voting occurred in the period that directly followed Stevens' conviction on seven felony counts of making false statements on his Senate financial disclosure forms

Read more: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/13/stevens-pollster-race-is_n_143660.html

[Me.]

1. Wasn't This Prediction Made Before The Election?

[Stuart G]

3. Yes, but this evidently came out today, and is a very good sign....

I sure hope that Steven's name will be moved to the dung heap, along with Spiro Agnew, Richard Nixon etc...

[snowbear]

19. It was made before the election.. but things changed when the vote count was......

..... MONITORED by members from each party. Now the real numbers are coming out.


Mayor Mark Begich and Big Eddie Schultz
9/13/08 at University of Alaska, Anchorage Campus

~ ~

[amdezurik]

2. I can just see Jailbird Ted

Trying to lock his office door and piling furniture in front of it so they can't drag him away :)

[rvablue]

8. Although, quite a funny image, I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility

[BrklynLiberal]

4. Aside from adding to the Dem majority in the Senate..there is a bonus to this..

Sarah Palin will NOT be running for the Senate any time soon..!!!!:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

[Piewhacket]

12. Palin not in the Senate? Awww... so heartbreaking. NOT!

[Genevieve]

26. This is a big bonus!

:toast: :bounce: :toast:

[Hawkeye-X]

5. Stevens needs to go on the news and CONCEDE.

And end the drama.

And get ready to face time in prison.

[MonteLukast]

6. Yayyyyy!

Because we need more Marks in the Senate. :P

Just kidding...

Keep going Mark! You can do it! :applause:

[FKA MNChimpH8R]

7. Can't wait to see him doin' the perp walk in his stylish

orange jumpsuit.

[underpants]

9. I think we win AK, lose GA, and Minn..... no idea

probably win Minn too (knock on wood)

[Lucky 13]

10. Stevens has a legendary problem with angry outbursts.

What I wouldn't give to see the one resulting from this news. Bye Uncle Ted!

[GreenEyedLefty]

11. I'm puzzled.

So if no one had noticed or made any comment about the abnormally low turnout in AK, those votes wouldn't have counted?

Anyone suspicious of CA's 61% turnout?

[Alexander]

13. Thousands of votes in many states have yet to be counted...

Including California and Alaska.

Nothing suspicious about it.

Provisional ballots are typically never counted at all, unless a race is as close as the Stevens/Begich race.

Depending on the state, early and absentee ballots can be counted first or weeks after Election Day.

[GreenEyedLefty]

14. That's unfortunate. Every vote should count.

[Alexander]

20. I agree, but I can see why they usually don't count provisionals.

Checking a voter's credentials, registration and so on is a lengthy, thankless, time-consuming process that could take weeks.

Looking at it from the side of election workers, why bother going to the trouble if the votes aren't going to change the outcome anyway?

I agree provisionals should be examined in any case, but perhaps in the future a separate "provisional ballot committee" can take care of things like this, so regular election officials don't have to.

[David in Canada]

18. Provisionals ARE Counted

Provisional votes ARE counted, even if they don't affect the race. All votes must be counted as part of the official canvass and are reflected in the official results released by the elections office of each respective state.

Also, a person is only elected once all the ballots are counted. Common sense and common knowledge have no legal standing whatsoever. Similarly, conceding defeat is a social nicety. It has no legal standing whatsoever. Neither does a press conference announcing ones candidacy. A candidate can only be put on a ballot via filing official documents.

Even in races where a candidate has 80% of the vote, they are not yet formally elected. They are de facto elected but are elected de jure after the respective elections official has tallied all the votes and certified the results with her signature and the official seal of office.

As for Alaska, the voter turnout as calculated by the Division of Elections is the amount of votes cast divided by the total number of registered voters. I know the same is true for the Oregon results and Washington results as I have been following them religiously.

On election night, Washington showed a 49% voter turnout due to the massive number of absentee and mail-in ballots. They are now at over 80%. Alaska showed a 45% turnout on election night and is currently at a tad north of 57%. I remember following the governor's race there in 2006 and 2002 as well as the 2004 senatorial race and the modus operandi was the same as the current count.

As for California, there are an estimated 1,600,000 ballots left to count, with a huge chunk from Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco counties.

I just wanted to clear up some common misconceptions on election tallying. Many people seem to think that they stop counting the day after the election or until the races are decided. That is not true.

[Alexander]

21. Not always. It depends on the state's laws.

"In the 2004 election, at least 1.9 million provisional ballots were cast, and 676,000 were never counted due to various states' rules on counting provisional ballots."

Source: National Journal

http://www.nationaljournal.com/about/njweekly/stories/2006/1103nj1.htm

[Piewhacket]

17. I'm from CA. Voters, especially Dems, were very motivated this time...

I haven't seen anyone question the high turnout.
It seems accepted. There was a lot at stake in the election.

Except for prop H8, there doesn't seem to be much grousing
about the results either.

I think we do have some problems in CA, but they are
systemic throughout the US, not just in CA. We need to
continue to work on the problems. But if there was
any serious indicators of election fraud in California,
I think there would be blood.

Not a guarantee, just my perspective.

[Sebastian Doyle]

22. I think the Republicans have been watching Mooseapalooza in the Whore Media in the last week

and they decided they don't want to go through any extra effort to save Stevens' seat, only to have her end up in it.

Tundra Barbie may be the darling of PNAC and the religious reich, but I doubt the rest of the Republican party likes her any more than we do.

[Delphinus]

15. I can't wait for Begich to win ...

I hold my breath every time I see something about this.

[BeyondGeography]

16. Great...Still trying to figure out how the "final" tally on Nov. 4 lacked about 30% of the votes

:freak:

[Alexander]

23. It wasn't final and it didn't count early, absentee and provisional ballots.

Alaska's elections typically work in this fashion.

[snowbear]

25. Because a lot of people do things like this:

Early June: Return to Alaska for the summer

Catch halibut up the kazoo:

Early October: Collect Massive Dividend Check

Uh Oh.. First sign of snow!

Mid October: Go vote absentee and get the hell outta dodge till next June:

It's not legal if you want to collect your big fat check...

But tons of people cheat and do it anyway...

Not Blue or me of course -->

[Aloha Spirit]

32. AAAAaaahhhhHHH Too Cute!! I drown in cute.

[northofdenali]

34. Nor I, nor Mr. NoD - we stick it all out!

Of course, Chena Hot Springs helps!

[David in Canada]

24. See above...

The turnout rate is the votes counted divided by the total registered voters.

On election night, when only a few ballots were in, I remembered seeing a 3% voter turnout and it grew as more votes were counted. As more absentee and provisional votes are counted, the total turnout will increase. It is already at near par with the 2004 turnout with a smorgasbord of ballots yet to be counted.

Paper ballots take a long time to count. In Canada and the United Kingdom, the time required to tally them is much shorter but they only vote on one race at a time.

The United States uses a system known as the 'long ballot' wherein dozens of races are voted upon in a single election. All votes must be tallied leading to a time lag. Similarly, with absentees and provisionals, the ballots must be authenticated before opened for counting.

In Alaska, they spent the week between election day and yesterday verifying the ballots and once verified, set them aside for counting. I would hazard to conjecture that once verified, the idenfiying information on the sleeve is removed to ensure voter confidentiality.

[votetastic]

27. Any idea how the "newly discovered" votes balance out between Obama and McCain

Compared to the first batch?

[NoGOPZone]

28. Ted will have time to count each ballot himself when he's in a jail cell. nt

[goclark]

30. Pretty

[goclark]

31. Pretty

[budkin]

29. Poor tubes.

Fuck him.

[DU GrovelBot]

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