Chuck Todd's.... "What if game!"

[aaaaaa5a]

Obama's coalition is much stronger that it is given credit for.


Snip... from MSNBC's first read.

*** The “What if…” game: We’ve devoted a lot of attention the three-legged stool of support that Obama received from African Americans, Hispanics, and voters 18 to 29. NBC’s Ana Maria Arumi projects what would have happened if you had removed one of those legs. When Arumi re-ran the numbers to eliminate all voters under 30, the only states that switched into the McCain column were the narrowly won states of Indiana and North Carolina. If there were no Latinos voting, both New Mexico and Indiana would have switched into the McCain column. However, in the make-believe world where African Americans wouldn't have voted, Obama would have still won most of the states that he won -- but McCain would have taken the swing states of Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Those 107 electoral votes would have then been enough to flip the race. The most important thing to take away from this little experiment: Obama's coalition was much broader than the conventional wisdom suggests. (Never mind the cynics among us who may now send all these "young voters did it" press releases into their junk email folder.)


http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/default.aspx?p=7

[genna]

1. Todd's a Republican...he's still right. Obama needed all 3 of those legs to stand up.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

8. Actually if you read the post carefully, that's not what Todd is saying at all.

He's saying that the only one that would have turned the race if he hadn't gotten their votes was black voters.

The other two would have still resulted in Obama wins.

[high density]

2. So if you randomly take out Obama voters, he eventually loses some states

Wow... Amazing insight there, Mr. Todd!

[Occam Bandage]

3. What stunning insight. I bet if you take away white evangelicals, McCain loses more states, too!

[cui bono]

6. Take away the horny male vote and he loses ALL states!

:)

[Doctor_J]

4. He also took 75% of the Jewish vote

About the only faction not part of his coalition is Big Media Loony Fringe

[TheKentuckian]

5. take away white evangelicals and McCain might not win any states

well, Utah I guess. No white evangelicals and McCain would be sitting on maybe 14 million votes.

[EC]

7. Same thing I told my BIL when he mentioned something on this order...

Blacks almost always vote for Democrats anyway...he would have gotten their votes rather Black, White or Purple....