Your Prediction: Who will be the Dem nominee?

[SeveneightyWhoa]

Forgive me if this has been done lately.
Please, vote with your head, not with your heart. Who do you realistically think will be voted as the Democratic Presidential nominee?

[spooky3]

1. why Graham but not Gephardt, Braun, Sharpton?

[Renew Deal]

2. Have you seen some of the polls out lately.

One of them had Graham in it. I am guessing it's a joke, or someone woke up from a long slumber.

[SeveneightyWhoa]

17. Ooops! Graham should've been Gephardt.

Just a slip on my part.

[mlawson]

3. I've said it before and I'll say it again.

Somehow, Kerry will still pull it off. He's not my pick, but he will do it.

Why? He has the most political clout in DC, I would think, that is, the most political chits to cash in. He is the ultimate insider in the Party, and will receive untold help from the 'machine', just when they get good and ready. They have their own agenda for 2004, after all, and it's not necesarily ours.

[Padraig18]

5. Kerry won't live past SC.

If he even makes it to SC, that is....

[mlawson]

9. Well, back in 1984 I thought the

threat of Mondale winning the nomination was almost past us too, and later in the season than SC will be, by far. Gary Hart (this was before his sexual faux pas) was almost sure to be the winner, and he had a *chance* against Reagan. Mondale had none.

But then you could almost see the 'cards' fall into place, the Party went to bat for Mondale, and soon he was IT. Hart's campaign just about folded in a few weeks, under the pressure of Mondale's superior financial condition, and from other perks given him.

I am haunted by this memory, and darkly fear it will come to life again this year.

[Padraig18]

11. Totally different than 1984.

The primary schedule is much, MUCH more front-loaded, and there are no 'winner take all' states, etc. . I truly think it's about time to stick a fork in Kerry, because I see nothing better than a weak 3rd in both IA and NH for him.

[mlawson]

15. I hope you are right.

But Mondale didn't win IA or NH, either; he was in free fall. Hart was surging, just as Dean is now, and his supporters thought we had it won. But all of a sudden, Mondale just TOOK OFF, as the Dem establishment pushed all they had for him. We were horribly shocked when Hart's campaign went under, as we immediately knew that it meant that Reagan was re-elected.

Yet the DNC was visibly jubliant. Do not misunderestimate their power, even in 2004.

[GreenArrow]

16. I think you're right,

Kerry will do it. Clark to be VP choice. Endorsement of Bill Clinton. Backing of the "machine."

[pscot]

4. I voted Clark

It's not necessrily what I want, but when it all comes down that's where I think we'll be.

[NV1962]

6. See my avatar... Clark - n/t

[TrueAmerican]

7. I voted for the candidate that's above the fray

General Clark

[worldgonekrazy]

8. He's above the fray because the others are bashing Dean FOR HIM

They are all establishment candidates and they are all working together to bring down the anti-establishment candidate: Howard Dean! It is the perfect strategy. Lieberman, Gephardt, and Kerry--who themselves have no shot at winning and know it--attack Dean to bring his ratings down while Clark gets to keep his hands clean.

[MidwestTransplant]

10. It's not like its a conspiracy or something

In any event, maybe he doesn't feel the need to bash anybody but Bush.

[Padraig18]

12. I don't think Clark is 'in on it'.

I honestly don't think he's part of the whole 'gang up on Dean' thing; however, I think it's pretty obvious that he is its chief beneficiary. :)

[arewethereyet]

21. thats a joke right ?

Edwards has stayed above it all but not the General.

[Piperay]

13. Dean...

I'm obviously for Clark (avatar says it all) but think Dean will get the nomination. :(

[Printer70]

14. This is Great: Nominate Mr. GOP

We really shouldn't bother having a primary. Just have the DNC and DLC come together and make the choice for us. After all, they're coordinating the attacks against Dean in the media. This should be a lesson for all of us not to bother with principle such as our objections to unjust wars- since we're going to nominate someone who started a unilateral war and supported IWR (until his political consultants got to him and had him change his mind).

[SeveneightyWhoa]

18. What the HELL are you..

..rambling on about?

[Bucky]

20. He's upset. It's okay. Dean's still the frontrunner.

But I honestly think Dean has overplayed his hand as far as shooting from the lip goes. He's still a formidable candidate and this race is still his to win. But he's got to transform into a likeable, winnable candidate soon to pull this off. If I were a betting man, I'd put money on Dean, but not the milk money. The moral Mr Bennett taught me that.

The deal is, four weeks ago the buzz going around was that Dean pretty much had this whole thing sewn up. That was obviously premature, but many of Dean's supporters aren't experienced enough in politics to understand that. So now some are feeling a bit of a let down--but only some of them. I'd wager most of them knew they'd have a fight on their hands and Clark, a fellow outsider, is the strongest of their potential challengers.

Hence the friction generated between two very similar campaigns. We should be natural allies. I suspect we will be by summer time. But in the mean time, a few emotional comments will bubble to the surface in public debates--including those on the internet. Your civics teacher done told you democracy was a messy business. Well, this is what a mess looks like. But just like grandma's kitchen, the mess really means something delicious is cooking in the oven.

I can't hardly wait for supper time!

[Printer70]

23. We have short memories

Am I indignant? Perhaps. But I remember not long ago we were steamed about Democrats taking us in the wrong direction- offering token resistance to Bush and vowing to expose him for his fraudulent war. Dean offered to chart a course that would leave behind the days when we offered watered-down versions of what Republians were proposing and propose bold new ideas based on Democratic principles. And now we're junking that and headed back to the old path with someone who's been a Republican most of his life and seems to love warfare so long as he's calling the shots. It's almost as if we were about to rebuild the party and then got cold feet from taunts that we couldn't win.

[mot78]

19. Clark

Hopefully as a result of my "Clark Scenario".

[adamrsilva]

22. Clark will surely win!

Dean might be number one in NH, but Clark is NUMBER TWO, same nationally... Dean might be number one in Iowa, but a Dean win actually helps Clark beat him! Dean might be leading in more states who primaries take place in Feb and March, but Clark is gaining!! Dean might have a ton more money, but Clark has a ton of money too, meaning Dean is losing support!!!!

[saltpoint]

24. I voted 'Other'

I liked a lot of what was said so far in these posts. Dean leads in polls. Clark runs strong also. Kerry is rising in Iowa. Edwards is persuading a lot of undecideds. Gephardt has a core of labor voters. Kucinich's people are impassioned and they will definitely show up. If CMB had more money, she would be reaching more people and be higher in polls.

Pretty good campaigns by a lot of people so far, especially compared to W's mish-mash of a campaign against McCain. Bush was blown out in New Hampshire and he wound up having to smear the man in South Carolina just to get back on track. (See under: Rove, Karl: subversion of democracy).

I predict a brokered convention. No one clear winner arrives in Boston with enough first-delegate votes.

The convention delegates will be freed after the first ballot to consider other candidates from among the 9 or a completely new face. Joe Biden? Al Gore? Bill Richardson? CMB?

It could happen.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

25. Used to think Dean, but now Clark - by a sliver

n/t