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How Obama won Ohio CBS 54-44 women and 52-46 men

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Tribetime Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-14-08 09:51 PM
Original message
How Obama won Ohio CBS 54-44 women and 52-46 men
so their polling had Obama winning 8-9% overall but only won by 4%. I saw someone post prior to the election that Ohio's vote count went through a central tabulator in Tennesee. I thought Ohio was called early compared to the final results, and I don't mean to beat a dead horse, but I'm still concerned about future elections going 5% in favor of the republicans from the exit polling.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mL_adCkVZfc&NR=1
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Thrill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-14-08 09:53 PM
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1. Makes no sense. He couldn't have won both by those margins and only win by 4
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EconomicLiberal Donating Member (554 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-14-08 09:53 PM
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2. Exit polling is an inexact science.
It's not always correct.

As for the reason why Obama won Ohio:

1) turnout in Western Ohio (GOP stronghold) was much higher in 2004 than it was in 2000.
2) Obama outperformed Kerry by a wide margin in Columbus. IMO, this singlehandedly won him the state.
3) He also did much better than Kerry did in Dayton and Cincinatti.
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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-14-08 09:53 PM
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3. They called Ohio early because his lead was big and Cuyahoga County was at 0%.
I don't think it was because exit polls showed him winning by a larger margin. Most networks called Ohio when its total in reached 13% or more and at that point, he held a sizable lead and without Cuyahoga County reporting, it would have been impossible for him to lose it.
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Tribetime Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-14-08 10:01 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. I see your point but basically that means he only broke even
over the last 85% with the big city votes still to come. Maybe I'm just paranoid ever since Blackwell
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Berry Cool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-14-08 10:09 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. The really interesting part is, Obama won Cincinnati, which was once a reliably red city.
Of the three C's, Cleveland and Columbus of late have been very blue, with Cincinnati as red as the surrounding area. This time, not so much. Cincy was a spot of blue in a sea of pink.

A whole lot more blue on the map this year, period. The majority of Ohio, the less populated counties, are still not blue, but they're more a light pink now than they are red.
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-14-08 10:26 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. Thank you, BerryBush.
That is interesting!
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darius15 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-14-08 10:45 PM
Response to Reply #5
8. Well, the actual city of Cincinnati is Dem, but the suburbs are Freeperville. It was a good pickup.
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roseBudd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-14-08 10:09 PM
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6. McCain had to hold on to George Bush numbers in Hamilton County..
when he lost Hamilton the game was over.
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