Follow the Blue Brick Road to 2012... and Beyond

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http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/13/21516/201/804/660248

The Gore-Kerry Big Blue Base

The states that both Gore and Kerry won, plus the three one or the other carried, make up the blue base which is the starting point for discussions of the 2012 Presidential election. This base has been solid for the past FIVE Presidential elections (with Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico being 4 out of 5). This in itself is a rather staggering realization. In 2008, NONE of these states ended up being genuinely in play. In fact, Obama carried all of the Big Blue Base states by 10% or more (except new Hampshire and Iowa, which were 9.7% and 9.4%, but we'll call that 10% just for the sake of argument).

To understand the strength of the Big Blue Base, think of how McCain made a play for the "swing" state of Pennsylvania. Obama carried Pennsylvania by 11%. McCain carried Texas by... 11%. So, to whatever degree Pennsylvania is a "swing" state, then so is Texas. Okay, that doesn't completely follow, but it does illustrate how deep blue the base was in 2008.

The Big Blue Base however is not big enough to win the Electoral College, and it will shrink a bit after redistricting. So, the task (that eluded Democrats in 2000 and 2004) is to expand the base, for the next decade and beyond.

A journey of a thousand miles, or the longterm geopolitical realignment of a nation, is a process of single steps. The blue brick road to 2012 and beyond is not a 50 state strategy, but rather a series of logical steps that aim to expand the base. This is done not just by winning the states on Election Day 2012 or 2016, but by blue-ing the states in a logical, focused manner. Just like people tend to vote for candidates they voted for before (largely because they are stubborn and don't want to admit they have been wrong), people tend to vote for parties they have supported before. The Big Blue Base has become much more solidly blue over the past five elections. That process needs to occur as we expand the map to other areas of the country.

(The groups of states listed below have the bluest on the left, and least blue on the right.)

The Light Blue West
--- Colorado, Nevada

Nevada went for Obama by a deep blue 12% while Colorado was only 8%, but Colorado now has a Democratic governor, two Democratic senators, and five of seven Democratic representatives. Nevada has a Republican governor and senator. Still, both of these states are now officially blue -- though not the deep blue of New Mexico. Even considering redistricting, if in 2012 the Democratic presidential candidate carries the Big Blue Base plus the Light Blue West, the game is over. In terms of challenges, this is not exactly like sending someone to Mars.

The Big Purple Ones
--- Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri

The blue-ing of Virginia is moving along at a spritely pace, so it sits a bit between these other tossup states and the Light Blue West, but it is a little too early to think of it with that same level of confidence. These states are the true purple/tossup states that could go either way. None are NEEDED in 2012 if the Big Blue Base and Light Blue West continue as they are, but the light-blue-ing of these states is the difference between a close election and a clear mandate. Additionally, blue-ing them on a Presidential level leads to the blue-ing of their Congressional delegations. There are currently 7 Democrats and 5 Republican senators from this group, with Ohio's Voinovich being the #2 target (after Specter) for Democrats and the blue-ing of Ohio.

Possibly the biggest failure of 2008 was the resounding failure to make inroads into the Florida Cuban vote. The two Diaz-Balart's brushed back what were thought to be strong challenges with relative ease. Thus, Florida is a lot closer to North Carolina than Ohio in terms of marginality.

The blue-ing of Indiana is welcome to everyone with anal tendencies who just likes how the map looks when it flows blue from Maine to Iowa.
Missouri offers the one cautionary note of the 2008 election. Ralph Nader got 17,000 votes in Missouri, far more than enough to tip the state to McCain. Nader similarly got enough votes to potentially have tipped North Carolina and Indiana. The failure of progressive Democrats to entice and convince these voters to join and build a "Green Caucus" inside the Democratic Party remains a disaster waiting to happen (again).