First Lady--> Senator --> Secretary of State --> Governor --> President

[kennetha]

By the time 2016 comes around Hilary Clinton will be a woman of true and undisputed gravitas. She will have been at the center of American National politics for decades. She will have been the First Lady, an effective Senator, the nation's chief diplomat, and, I'm guessing, Governor of New York.

She will win the Presidency by acclamation. Okay, the last one is a stretch. But even at 69, she will be a formidable figure and very, very hard to beat.

[Smarmie Doofus]

1. Governor of NY? We have a brand new DEM gov....

... who's extremely popular. What is she going to do with him?

[kennetha]

4. succeed him

[marimour]

7. he's running for reelection.

[Tiggeroshii]

9. i think what the op's getting at is she will be secretary of state until the governor terms out, and

when she's done being secreatary of state, she'll have the experience and "gravitas" and appeal to win herself the dem nomination as Mr. Paterson's successor.

[kennetha]

10. IN 2010

Clinton announces for Governor in 2013. Wins in 2014. Promises to finish out her term. Governs effectively throughout 2015. But toward the end of that year -- November or December -- Responds to a supposed groundswell calling for her to reconsider her pledge and run for Prez. After thinking hard about it, she "reluctantly" decides to abandon her promise and run for president.

[marimour]

11. That's not a smart plan IMO

Hopping from job to job and only Governing for basically 1 year at the most before beginning her presidential run wont look good. It would look like she only wants the job as a stepping stone for President, not like she actually cared about governing in the state of NY. I think it would a lot wiser to either stay in the Senate and become a leader or stay as sec. of state if she is offered and then run. Plus, Patterson has 4 years left. If he is still popular then she would be challenging a blind, black man for a job that she would likely only want for a year or so as a stepping stone to something bigger. I'm not sure that would look that good and I think people would see through that.

[kennetha]

14. Doesn't Patterson just have the rest of Spitzer's term left?

[mwei924]

15. His current term lasts until 2010. Patterson has already said he will run for re-election.

That does not give Hillary an opening for this job unless she wants to challenge Patterson. He is currently very popular and I doubt it would look good if Hillary tried to take his place (not to mention, another primary against a popular black guy?).

Why can't she just go from Senator or SoS to President? After being a famous senator and possibly SoS-- who needs to be governor?

[marimour]

18. Oh. from the post above I thought it was 2012. Thats a little better.

But if it is 2010 I don't think she could run while serving as SOS. I may be wrong but I think I heard something on TV recently about cabinet members not being able to raise money or run for office while serving in their position.

[PretzelWarrior]

2. so by virtue of your math equation, a first lady is better than the president?

yup. I bet that is what Hillary told Bill in mid 1998 repeatedly. I'm sure Laura Bush is still telling George that every day.

P.S. I am kidding. I understood your post title.

[sandnsea]

3. I missed the Governor part

of the equation. But it certainly fits. Maybe Obama will promote her to VP some time in his second term too.

[marimour]

6. i doubt it. Biden ran and won, he deserves to serve both terms.

When has a Pres or VP just resigned just so someone else could have a chance to be pres/vp? Hillary still has a chance for 2016. She doesn't need someone to resign just so it can be handed to her. She is capable of earning on her own.

[TexasObserver]

5. Yes, that's the path I can see happening.

[Danger Mouse]

38. She will not be governor of New York. Fail.

[TexasObserver]

44. Like you know. She will be governor of New York if she WANTS to be governor of New York.

[Danger Mouse]

45. We have a governor. He's a dem. He's a good governor

and he plans to run for another term. Unless she plans to run a primary campaign against him, she will not see the governorship of New York for another six years.

[TexasObserver]

50. So what? If she decides she wants to be governor of NY, there are ways.

You foolishly believe that just because there's a Democratic governor you like that settles the issue.

If she decides she wants to be governor of New York, they could essentially swap positions.

But the real point is YOU DON'T KNOW, SO STOP ACTING AS IF YOU DO.

[Danger Mouse]

51. I think it effectively does. I may be proven wrong...

but I seriously doubt it.

[TexasObserver]

52. You were wrong about who would win the nomination.

So you're 0-1 this year. I can see why you're so certain of your predictions.

[Danger Mouse]

53. What do you mean? I was an Obama supporter.

[TexasObserver]

56. In that case, never mind.

[Danger Mouse]

57. Who did you think I supported, just out of curiosity?

[TexasObserver]

58. the junior senator from ny

[Cha]

64. Yi Yi Yi! Aren't the post general

election primaries interesting?:P

[vanderBeth]

8. Urgh nevermind

I had something written out, but I don't want to start a flame war. I'll just say I disagree.

[Metric System]

12. I'm glad Hillary has you all to decide her career path for her. I'm also thankful to those here who

possess psychic abilities who can see what she'll do in the future (mostly up to no good, apparently) and to those with telekinesis who can tell us what she's thinking (plotting Obama's downfall, apparently).

[marimour]

17. please go to the SOS threads with this.

This is a relatively positive thread started by an apparent supporter of Hillary. We are discussing whether this will be a good path for a possible 2016 run. No one is disrespecting her or accusing her of "plotting Obama's downfall". You have almost a dozen other threads where your sarcasm and negativity will be appreciated.

[Metric System]

21. A positive thread about Hillary on DU? Pardon me if I'm a little disoriented.

[marimour]

23. Well once you get your bearings try contributing something to this thread other than snark

[Metric System]

49. Hopefully you are around to see what the thread as devolved into. The usual haters have shown up and

are giving the exact responses I would expect from them. This kind of thread is nothing but trouble.

[emilyg]

60. -I checked twice to make sure I was on DU.

[bigbrother05]

32. Think you meant telepathy

Telekinesis is to move things from a distance

[Metric System]

48. Indeed.

[man4allcats]

13. I can see Hillary as President at some point in the future.

I think this most recent election and the interim that will follow will be growth opportunities for her. She is a smart person. Smart people grow. Her age notwithstanding, I think at some point she could be a great President. I would love to see Obama achieve greatness over two terms only to be followed by Hillary doing the same thing. After that, there would be no Republican Party, or at least no Republican Party as we know it today. Don't get me wrong. I'm all for a two-party system or even more than two parties. I do not, however, want one of those parties to be a criminal organization such as Bushco is.

[Drunken Irishman]

16. There is a good chance Biden isn't on the ticket in 2012.

He's up there in age and he might ask Obama if he can step aside, allowing him to bring on a younger candidate to groom for 2016. If that happens, Hillary won't be in position to run for president in 2016, as she will not run against a VP.

Her hope is that Biden decides to stick with the ticket until 2016 and pulls a Cheney, not running for office in eight years. Obama loses, or Obama asks her to be his VP if Biden steps aside in 2012.

[PretzelWarrior]

19. that would be crazy. won't happen unless he's truly ill.

[man4allcats]

20. Damn! You make more sense than I do, and I'm the one

who drank the Guinness! :wow:

[man4allcats]

22. Of course, now that I think of it,

maybe that's why you make more sense than I do. Oh well, time for me to go to bed now. "Say goodnight, Dick." "Goodnight, Dick."

[sandnsea]

29. Unless she's the one he brings in

in preparation for 2016.

[Renew Deal]

40. Unless Obama makes Hillary VP

You never know!

[Sensitivity]

24. Wouldn't Barack have been declared President for Life by that date??

:rofl:

[vanderBeth]

25. YES

+1

[GoesTo11]

26. Wrong mindset.

Assuming she becomes Sec of State, she should just focus on doing that well. It can't all be about planning to maximize chances of becoming president. She didn't win in this election, and she can move forward and do good work. But if she and we are viewing this as just resume building, it will both compromise her ability to do her best work and it will likely leave her and her supporters very disappointed. Not because she won't be electable, but because it's just a crapshoot even for electable people whether or not they can win - only one person does, and history moves on.

[FrenchieCat]

28. Plus, I wouldn't want to support someone that's been plotting to be President

for another 8 years. Plus, she may want to take a rest by then.....cause 8 years is a mighty long time.

[Grateful for Hope]

31. Agree

She is over 60 now. So, in 8 years she will be nearly 70. I think that the presidency is a hugely burdensome responsibility that takes a toll even on younger presidents (thinking of how it aged Bill Clinton, for instance).

[Ozma]

82. Yes, and Hillary is not the ONLY woman who would be qualified

to be President 8 years from now. This dreaming about Hillary's rise to the Presidency, frankly, is worrisome to me. Why Hillary and not some other woman?

[genna]

27. I like Bro. Gov. Patterson. Why should he move over b/c of HRC's ambition?

[political_Dem]

30. I agree.

It reeks of entitlement to even propose that Mr. Patterson has to step down to suit Sen. Clinton's path to the White House.

[Genevieve]

34. He shouldn't and he won't have to.

nt

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[Cosmic Charlie]

35. Too Old!!!! But she can get the McCain Award for effort...

the Torch has already been passed to the next Generation.
there's no going back...

[kennetha]

36. ageism lives!

[bridgit]

42. hahaha, if the next gen screws this pooch, they'll never elect anyone under 55-60 again...

to the victor go the spoils...but they are spoils don't kid yourself

[mkultra]

37. maybe she can even rise to the level of Barack Obama

given enough time.

[Danger Mouse]

39. It's already been pointed out to you, but we like Patterson as our governor.

We'll keep him, thanks.

[Colobo]

41. I don't think she'll get to the presidency because of her age and because

Obama will be reelected in 2012.

[MoonRiver]

55. Do you think Biden will run in 2016?

He'll be 63 or 64. Hillary would look like the youngster.

[foo_bar]

83. that's 73 or 74

Joseph Robinette "Joe" Biden, Jr. (pronounced /'dʒoʊsəf rɒbɪ'nɛt 'baɪdən/; born November 20, 1942) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden
Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton (born October 26, 1947) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Rodham_Clinton

Hillary will be 68 going on 69 in 2016, but I guess that's young nowadays; on the other hand, the demographics of her 2k8 primary base might be sparser in 2016:

In state after state, older voters have formed a core constituency for Mrs. Clinton, who is 60, while younger voters have coalesced around Mr. Obama, who is 46. Age has been one of the most consistent indicators of how someone might vote — more than sex, more than income, more than education.

According to exit polls conducted by Edison/Mitofsky in the states that have voted so far, 57 percent of voters 65 and older have supported Mrs. Clinton and 36 percent have supported Mr. Obama. Most of the Clinton voters say they want a candidate with experience.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/22/us/politics/22age.html

Of course past performance doesn't predict future results, and Hillary could "re-brand" herself a la Madonna, and against a more wizened challenger she might appear to be baby faced, but I wouldn't count on another 8 Year Plan after the last one.

[Lorentz]

43. Clinton is old news and and old name from a time gone by.

Please stop rehashing the primaries. The Democratic voters have already decided that she's not their choice for President. Will she be that much more of a qualified candidate in 8 years?

The Bush/Clinton names on the White House mailbox have been removed. Let's leave it that way. No more dynasties for the sake of name recognition.

[Beacool]

61. Sorry to burst your balloon,

but more registered Democrats voted for Hillary than voted for Obama in the primaries. His pledged delegate advantage came from the caucuses and even then, he ended ahead of her in the PD count by only 127, it was the super delegates who closed the deal for him.

So, sorry to disappoint you, but the Clintons are not a thing of the past and are not going anywhere.

:shrug:

[Lorentz]

63. Last time I checked, Barack Obama is the President-Elect.

So, Clinton's "victory" in the primaries didn't seem to do her a lot of good...

[tabbycat31]

65. if she really wants to 'go rogue"

and wants to point the Clintons to the next generation, then they should groom Chelsea. I mean if she runs in 2016 (the first year she would be old enough) or beyond, and wins, she can't be worse than another president's child running the country.

[AtomicKitten]

46. -------> prima ballerina -------> rocket scientist --------> master of time and space

:eyes:

[FrenchieCat]

47. and lastly ---------> Goddess of the entire Universe!

:rofl:

[Metric System]

76. I see you're still up to your old tricks. I don't know why anyone would bother trying to start a

positive thread about Hillary on DU. I know I wouldn't bother.

[MoonRiver]

54. It could definitely happen.

And I don't think she even needs to be governor. The gravitas of being SoS plus Senator would do it. Oh, I forgot her absolutely impeccable bonafides. She's also a beautiful, caring, and brilliant human being. Works for me!
:)

[Lavender Brown]

59. I don't think NY state politics is what she is interested in.

Albany is a totally different world from Washington. Plus, I want to see Governor Paterson around a while. :)

[Beacool]

62. I like your career path for her,

but I'm not sure about governor. Patterson is quite popular and he may choose to run for reelection. Regardless, I still hope that she runs again and becomes our first woman president.

Thank you for a positive post about Hillary, amid the the forest of negativity on this board about anything Clinton.

:hi:

[ShortnFiery]

66. Oh Lord! How about "First things First?" eom

[Cosmic Charlie]

67. First Lady --> Senator --> Mists of Time

[Radical Activist]

68. How many more times will she "find her voice" during that time?

And will she still hold any of the same convictions in 2016 that she has today or will she have a whole new set of poll-tested beliefs again?
The things that people don't like about her today are unlikely to change in the next eight years.

[davidpdx]

69. An interesting bit from Nate Silver at 538.com

Is Secretary of State a Stepping Stone?

This is a high-risk, high-reward opportunity for Hillary Clinton. If she accepts, and serves out six or eight years in a popular Obama administration, then she is practically guaranteed the Presidency in 2016 ... However, there is always a chance she will be replaced, or that Obama will not be a popular President. In either of these scenarios, taking the job might make it the last job Hillary Clinton has in politics.
That commentary is from Chris Bowers at Open Left. I tend to agree with the gist of what Chris has to say -- were Clinton to accept Obama's offer to become Secretary of State, her political fate would be tied fairly strongly to the success or failure of his administration.

The fundamental question I am concerned with, however, is slightly different. If Hillary Clinton's goal is to become President of the United States in 2016, would she improve her odds by accepting the Secretary of State position? The answer to this question is less clear.

It was once very common for Secretaries of State to ascend to the Presidency. Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, James Monroe, John Quincy Adams, James Buchanan and Martin Van Buren had at one point served as Secretary of State before they served as President; three of the six (Madison, Monroe, Adams) held the Secretary of State position at the time of their election.

However, following Buchanan's election in 1856, we have now gone more than 150 years since a Secretary of State became President. There are a couple of good reasons for the change. The first is the increase in the stature of the Vice Presidency dating from the mid-20th century onward. No sitting Vice President ran for President between 1860 and 1960, but since then four have (Nixon, Humphrey, Bush 41, Gore). Whereas Secretaries of States were once seen as the natural successors to the Presidency, now that honor falls to Vice Presidents.

Barack Obama's situation is somewhat unusual in that he selected a Vice President in Joe Biden who, because of his age, probably will not have Presidential aspirations in 2016. Thus, Secretary of State might again serve the role of housing the President's designated successor. Of course, it is also possible that Joe Biden will not be Obama's VP selection when he runs for re-election in 2012, which could make things very awkward for Clinton.

The other reason why Secretaries of States rarely run for President is because of the increasing demands of the campaign cycle, which can now occupy as many as two years of a candidate's time. Voters might find it off-putting for a Secretary of State to be barnstorming in Iowa when it is supposed to be her duty to serve her president and her country. It is more likely that Clinton would serve as Secretary of State for somewhere between four and six years, but would have vacated the position by the time she ran for President. (Frankly, this is likely to be the case whether or not she'd want to run for President, as nobody since George Schultz in 1982-1989 has served more than four consecutive years as Secretary of State).

Still, we haven't really addressed our question: If Hillary Clinton's goal is to become President of the United States in 2016, would she improve her odds by accepting the Secretary of State position?

My answer to this is a qualified 'no'. If the Obama administration is perceived as successful, that will likely make Clinton's road to the White House easier. But this is probably true whether or not she serves in Obama's Cabinet. If the Democratic brand is strong in 2016, Clinton will have little trouble riding that wave and presenting herself as a safe, trusted, capital-D Democrat (which is essentially her brand to begin with), almost no matter what she had spent her time doing.

On the other hand, it would probably be easier for Clinton to extricate herself from an unpopular Obama had she avoided serving in his Cabinet. This is particularly the case if Obama loses in 2012, in which case Democrats would inevitably want to go in a "new" direction in 2016. Clinton would find it easier to present herself as that alternative if, say, she served as Governor of New York, rather than as a member of Obama's cabinet.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/is-secretary-of-state-stepping-stone.html

[flvegan]

70. I thought this was a Michelle Obama prediction.

My bad.

[JVS]

80. ROFL!

[Phx_Dem]

71. Who gives a shit.

We are at a huge milestone in this country and all you care about is 2016 and fucking Hillary? If you ever wonder why so many peope dislike the Clintons, look no further than yourself and your unhealthy obsession with the Clintons, which is much like their obsession with themselves. Maybe you could enjoy this victory instead of casting it aside to look eight years into the future.

With eight long years to go, and knowing Bill Clinton, I wouldn't start counting the votes just yet.

[kennetha]

73. such bitterness!

you need to get over it

[Phx_Dem]

75. Perhaps you should take your own advice.

What in the world do I have to be bitter about? Obama won. You're the one who is living eight years into the future and pinning all your hope all on the tenuous position of Hillary Clinton. I wouldn't necesarily call that bitter, but pathetic crosses my mind.

[Beacool]

78. Personally, I never wonder why some jerks don't like Hillary.

That's your problem, not ours and not the Clinton's. The OP just hopes that some day she becomes president, what's wrong with that? It's no more unhealthy than the thousands who think that Obama is the next best thing since sliced bread, and you talk about unhealthy obssession?????

Please, kettle meet pot..........

:rofl:

[Arugula Latte]

72. Well, personally, I hope some other Democrat is elected in 2016.

But, at this point, I'm just happy Barack is The One.

[JVS]

74. Me too! Other Democrat 2016!

[wisteria]

77. I am going to go out on a limb here and say she wouldn't be SOS.

Maybe another post, but not this one. Frankly, I can see "A Team of Rivals", but her as SOS isn't necessary to accomplish this. And, let me add that she is not at all qualified for this position-a little visit here and there around the world eight or more years ago does not qualify one for this important position. Obama would be a fool to let her lose on the world and I don't think he is a fool.

[mwei924]

79. By 2016, the party might have another younger star that no one's heard of right now.

Honestly, 8 years ago Hillary's name was already been floated around for President and Obama wasn't known outside of Chicago. Who knows what could happen in the next 8 years? We're not Republicans who usually just nominate whoever has paid their dues and is next in line (otherwise Obama never would have won). There are a lot of great Democrats who are possibilities in 2016. I think we should REALLY avoid the whole "inevitable nominee" mindset.

Assuming Obama becomes a successful President, which I am confident he will, thus giving the Democrats a good chance to win in 2016, whoever wants to become the nominee will want to present him or herself as Obama's natural successor. While Hillary is a smart and capable woman, that doesn't sound like something she'd really convince people of. Of course, playing an active role in an Obama administration would certainly help. Gov. of NY seems too out there. Patterson is very popular and plans on running for re-election in 2010. That means if Hillary wants to run, she'd have to do it in 2014 and then immediately jump into a Presidential campaign.

Of course, who knows, the Republicans could somehow pull a win in 2016 even if Obama is popular. George Bush somehow became President in 2000 (e.i. got close enough to Gore to take it away).

[Essene]

81. There's this guy called Mike Bloomberg in NYS...