Good Election Analysis

[WI_DEM]

Turncoat Democrat Zell Miller's out there these days campaigning for Saxby Chambliss, and this put me in mind of the title of his book, written about the Democratic Party which brought him to prominence.

It was entitled "A National Party No More".

In the wake of Barack Obama's impressive victory on November 4, I wonder how he feels about that now. The truth is that one of the major parties is essentially reduced to regional-party status, and it is the Republican Party.

One of the easiest ways to gauge Obama's performance in individual states this year - and get a sense of trends evolving in that state - is to compare Obama's improvement there over Kerry (since he improved almost everywhere relative to Kerry) to his improvement over Kerry nationwide.

For example, Obama outperformed Kerry in both Montana and South Carolina. But while he enjoyed a 17-point positive swing over 2004 levels in Montana - nearly winning the state - his improvement over Kerry in South Carolina was slightly less than his improvement nationwide, indicating that the state may not have caught the national tide as much as most others.

So let's take a look at the numbers for all states - Obama's performance, Kerry's performance, the "swing", and the "swing" relative to the national swing. On average, the "swing" from 2004 to 2008 was 10 points in favor of Democrats - Kerry lost by three points, Obama won by seven points. So there's the baseline.

We've noted the home states of Obama, Biden, John McCain, Sarah Palin, John Kerry, John Edwards, George W. Bush, Dick Cheney and Hillary Clinton, as the "native son/daughter" effect could be in play. Included are Hawai'i (for Obama) and Arkansas (for Clinton).

State 2004 2008 Swing Swing Relative to Average

USA R+3 D+7 D+10 0

AL R+26 R+22 D+4 -6
AK R+25 R+22 D+6 -4 (Palin HS)
AZ R+11 R+9 D+2 -8 (McCain HS)
AR R+9 R+20 R+11 -21 (Clinton HS*)
CA D+9 D+24 D+15 +5
CO R+5 D+8 D+13 +3
CT D+10 D+23 D+13 +3
DE D+7 D+23 D+16 +6 (Biden HS)
FL R+5 D+2 D+7 -3
GA R+17 R+5 D+12 +2
HI D+9 D+45 D+36 +26 (Obama HS*)
ID R+39 R+25 D+14 +4
IL D+11 D+25 D+14 +4 (Obama HS)
IN R+21 D+1 D+22 +12
IA R+1 D+9 D+10 0
KS R+25 R+16 D+9 -1
KY R+19 R+17 D+2 -8
LA R+15 R+19 R+4 -14
ME D+9 D+17 D+8 -2
MD D+7 D+23 D+16 +6
MA D+25 D+26 D+1 -9 (Kerry HS)
MI D+3 D+16 D+13 +8
MN D+3 D+10 D+7 -3
MS R+20 R+14 D+6 -4
MO R+7 R+1 D+6 -4
MT R+20 R+3 D+17 +7
NE R+33 R+17 D+16 +6
NV R+3 D+12 D+15 +5
NH D+1 D+9 D+8 -2
NJ D+8 D+15 D+7 -3
NM R+1 D+15 D+16 +6
NY D+19 D+25 D+6 -4 (Clinton HS)
NC R+12 D+1 D+12 +3 (Edwards HS)
ND R+27 R+8 D+19 +9
OH R+2 D+4 D+6 -4
OK R+32 R+32 None -10
OR D+4 D+16 D+12 +2
PA D+2 D+10 D+8 -2
RI D+22 D+28 D+6 -4
SC R+17 R+9 D+8 -2
SD R+21 R+8 D+13 +3
TN R+14 R+15 R+1 -11
TX R+23 R+10 D+13 +3 (Bush HS)
UT R+46 R+29 D+17 +7
VT D+20 D+35 D+15 +5
VA R+8 D+6 D+14 +4
WA D+7 D+17 D+10 0
WV R+13 R+13 None -10
WI D+1 D+13 D+12 +2
WY R+40 R+32 D+8 -2 (Cheney HS)

For reference, here are election results from previous years

2004 (Bush/Kerry)
2000 (Bush/Gore)
1996 (Clinton/Dole)
1992 (Clinton/Bush)

So what do we take from this?

The West apparently loves Obama, especially the most populous areas of the West. Obama showed marked improvement over both Kerry and Gore in the West - he seems to be about as popular as Bill Clinton was in much of the West, more so in certain areas, less so in others.

Obama won Colorado by eight points, Nevada by 12 points, and New Mexico by 12 points. Obviously, those are dramatically better numbers than Gore or Kerry put up, and Bill Clinton had only one performance in these states that more or less matched these, an 8-point 1992 victory in a three-person race in New Mexico. He won nailbiters in Nevada both elections, and lost Colorado in 1996. Obama did slightly worse than Clinton in much of the rural West, oddly enough...but again, far better than either Gore or Kerry.

Obama's improvement over Kerry in the West exceeded the national average improvement almost everywhere; in California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Montana, Utah, New Mexico, Oregon and Washington. The only Western states where Obama did not exceed the "average improvement" were John McCain's home state of Arizona, and Wyoming.

It's hard to say why Obama's jump in Wyoming didn't match the national average jump, or the average jump in the West. The slight underperfomance here may well have hurt Democrat Gary Trauner in his quest to win the state's at-large House seat, but outside of Obama campaigning in Wyoming - which would have been essentially pointless - it's hard to see what could be done about that.

The improvement in the West is really significant, and if it holds up, Arizona, Montana and maybe the Dakotas will be swing states in 2012, while Nevada and New Mexico will be blue states.

"Moderately" blue states loved Obama/Biden. Kerry won the following states by 10 points or less: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin.

Obama won them all by double digits, and with the exception of Minnesota and New Jersey, his improvement in each of these states significantly outstripped the average.

The blue states where Obama showed the least improvement were Massachusetts, New York and Rhode Island...likely because those three states had already gone so strongly for Kerry, there weren't many persuadables left.

What's up with Arkansas? Obama lost the state by twenty points - even Kerry only lost by 9. It was by far his worst performance, in terms of trend, in any state.

Arkansas is a solidly Democratic state, however, at the state level and even the federal level. I wonder if there was not some resentment for Obama beating Hillary Clinton in the primary here; even years after leaving Arkansas, she remains immensely popular in the state. If you're looking for real live PUMA's, they're probably in Arkansas.

The "Appalachia effect" which DHinMI noted during the primaries appears not to be limited to Appalachia. Rather, it seems to hold for the entire white rural South and areas outside the South which are demographically and culturally similar.

Some Southern states balance this out up to a point because they happen to have large black populations. Alabama, Mississippi and South Carolina are examples of this. But Obama lost ground, relative to his average improvement, almost everywhere in the South, as well as in West Virginia and Mississippi, with four exceptions: Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia.

You know what these states have in common? They all have fairly large black populations (and in Texas' case, a large Hispanic population), and they also have experienced great population growth in the last decade, and have a generally better educated, more affluent, more urban and suburban white population than seen in other Southern states.

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[DerekJ]

1. Nice read, thanks. n/t