Who will withdraw after IA and NH?

[Padraig18]

Your thoughts?

:)

[jmaier]

1. I don't think anyone

is dropping out pre-Feb 3rd and possibly not even then. The possible exception among the major candidates could be Gephardt if he is decisively defeated in IA: either 3rd or distant 2nd.



Wes Clark. He will be an extraordinary American President.

[CalebHayes]

3. Kerry

[Feanorcurufinwe]

15. Yep. Your analysis is spot-on. No one.

If folks were going to drop out because they don't have a chance of winning, they'd have done so by now. Everyone still running either has faith - we know how irrational that can be - or is staying in for a different reason.

[auburnblu]

24. If someone did, the debates might be better

Having nine candidates in a debate is just too many. It was nice to have only seven in the Iowa televised debate.

If Kerry comes in third or worse in Iowa and New Hampshire, he may as well call it quits, because that will mean that Clark and/or Gephardt will be considered the Dean alternative. I think Joe L will bow out after the South Carolina primary.

[elfin]

2. Unfortunately - no one

They will hang on until Feb. for convention input, possilbe VP slot, extra media time etc.

So I didn't vote in the poll.

[ochazuke]

7. That would be bad

It could give the nomination to someone who doesn't even have the support of the majority of Democrats.

For the good of the party, candidates who do poorly should drop out quickly. We need to focus on a smaller number.

[Padraig18]

4. I don't think anyone will until SC.

But after SC, I expect we'll have a MUCH smaller field.

[Kathleen04]

5. LOL, somebody voted Dean..

Oh goodness... -sigh-

I voted for John Kerry, because if current trends continue, he'll be 3rd in both and he's in 4th in most of the Feb. 3rd states' polls.

Joe Lieberman..I don't know when he'll drop out, because I don't think he's counting on either IA or NH.

Gep may drop out if he loses IA.

Edwards is in till after the 3rd.

Kucinich, Braun, and Sharpton are in this till the end, I think.

Edit: typo.

[Padraig18]

8. Some folks have to cast 'spite' votes.

Unless they're on drugs, they can't seriously believe Dean's gonna drop out with $20 million plus in the bank; the same goes for those who voted 'Clark', IMO...

[Kathleen04]

9. Yep..

But they don't know what they're missing, actual analysis is more fun than spite votes. :)

[eissa]

6. I hope to God it's

Lieberman, although he is so full of himself I doubt if he will.

[Renew Deal]

17. Feb 4

with your prayers :evilgrin:

[Kathleen04]

21. He may..

have a shot at one Feb. 3rd state--Delaware. He was ahead in the polls there awhile ago, but maybe he'd lose traction there after he loses IA and NH.

[Padraig18]

10. Wow! A poll where Kerry leads, finally!

Forgive me--- I couldn't resist the obvious comment... :shrug:

[Feanorcurufinwe]

16. Wishful thinking on the part of some.

It seems pretty obvious that the top 3 candidates in fundraising will be in it till the convention. But I can understand why partisan opponents would vote for one of them to drop out anyway.

[saltpoint]

11. BUSH WITHDRAWS

Jan. 20, 2004, Des Moines, Iowa -- President Bush stunned Republican Party officials in Iowa and indeed across the nation by issuing a terse statement of withdrawal from his re-election campaign.

"I will not be the nominee of the Republican Party in 2004," the statement said.

An unnamed administration official told the Associated Press, "The statement is typically brief and declarative, which is the president's usual style. But unlike his style, it is coherent."

Reaction to the president's surprise announcement from the Democrats was swift.

"He got his head out of his hindend for a few minutes and realized that all nine of the Democrats were smarter, better qualified, and more humane. For that matter, a dish of coleslaw is smarter, better qualified and more humane than George Bush. So he just decided to fold," said DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe.

"Those Yale cowboys are never in it for the long haul," former President Bill Clinton told the Washington Post. "They're all wussies. If you're from Yale, be from Yale. If you're a cowboy, be a cowboy. Bush is nominally from Yale, but only barely, and he's no cowboy at all."

The sheer threshold interest and representative vigor of the Democratic primary campaigns is thought to be the incentive for Mr. Bush's sudden decision. Reached after a series of board meetings, longtime Democratic guru Robert Strauss told reporters, "Well, in truth I'm not that surprised. I mean, hell -- the man could barely talk, for Christ's sake. "

Mr. Strauss, who is not known for his subtle characterizations of Republicans, said that it was well-known throughout power circles in Washington that the Bush team was suffering a very bad case of "Democrat Envy."

"Bush was a loser," Mr. Strauss mused. I mean, it's part of his constitution as a human being. He lacks the intellectual range and gentle wisdom of John Kerry. He is no match for the heart-and-mind compassion and graciousness of Carole Mosely-Braun. He doesn't understand Al Sharpton's loyal following and razor wit. He can't stand as tall as Dick Gephardt on labor issues. His fake cowboy clothes pale next to General Clark's medals. His commitment to the common man and woman is superficial next to the passion of Dennis Kucinich. He never earned his way through adulthood like John Edwards. He could never match Joe Lieberman's early civil rights record in the South. He loafed and partied at Yale compared to Dean, who worked and studied and earned his degree. Bush just took a look at the Democrats' starting line-up, and he pissed his pants and quit."

Mr. Bush's decision to forego re-election places him historically in the political trashbin with his father, whose administration was perceived, rightly, by many voters as being out of touch with the people it was supposed to represent.

Left scrambling in the wake of Mr. Bush's withdrawal were GOP activists and fixers, who thought they had a shoe-in for 2004.

The president declined to be interviewed for this article owing to a pressing vacation schedule at Camp David and his ranch in Crawford.

[Adjoran]

12. The odds are

that it will be Kerry, unless he greatly exceeds expectations to become this year's "Comeback Kid."

Gephardt MUST win Iowa to keep enough money coming in to continue.

The rest aren't looking for any big result in the first two contests - Clark could get a big boost from a decent showing in NH, but if not, he hasn't lost anything - so they won't be contemplating quitting until the Feb 3 voting is over.

[Padraig18]

13. I still can't believe those delusional Clark and Dean votes...

Too funny for words. :P

[Renew Deal]

14. I wish I could pick multiple.

Kerry, Gephardt (though if Dean screws up IA, this may not happen). Braun,

[ozone_man]

20. My answer too.

Gep and Kerry should go after these two.

[auburnblu]

26. Why will Braun drop out?

She has admitted she is low on funds which is part of the reason she's not on the NY or Virginia ballots. But I think she wants to hang in there for a while to make some points in the debates.

[Renew Deal]

31. No money, no support

and wasting our time and precious space. She eats up time at the debates. At this point, it is clear she will not win.

[Bucky]

18. Yay! Another poll!! I get to vote for my man Clark again! Wahoooo!!!

Yep, another vote for Clark! He's gonna win this poll too! Ha ha, other doodz! I'm votin' for my man and he's gonna win! Nyaa nyaa nyaa!


Oh shit, what was that question again?



Send me a DU private message ( ) to become a Teacher for Clark
Teachers for Clark beta site

[funky_bug]

33. To Bucky

Your posts never cease to amaze me. First I read intellegent, impartial, sensible speach-lets, and now I'm cleaning up the milk that spewed from my nose as I read your response to this poll.

Thank you for making my mind stronger and my nostrils burn.

You are abso-friggin'-lutely hilarious.

[Bucky]

19. Ahem. Actually I voted for Kerry

But I can't resist making fun of myself.

[Jack Rabbit]

22. Gephardt and Kerry will drop

Perhaps Edwards, too, but he may want to hold out a little longer. I don't think he is in this to win, but to show.

Sharpton, Moseley-Braun and Kucinich are message candidates and won't drop out just because they don't get many votes.

Lieberman will probably do well enough to keep going into the middle primaries.

Clark and Dean will be fighting it out through the middle primaries, at least.

[imhotep]

23. might as well have said

"who do you WANT to drop out"

[Feanorcurufinwe]

27. Yep. lol

[AP]

25. I'm wondering if Sharpton hasn't withdrawn already.

He's 0 for 2 in the last two debates, and that's the best thing he does -- debate.

Has he stopped campaigning in order to help, oh, say, Edwards in SC?

[mourningdove92]

34. Sounds good to me.

I'm not giving up on Edwards.

:toast:

[mot78]

28. Gephardt and Kerry, hopefully

In order for Clark to become the "anti-Dean", Gephardt needs to lose Iowa, which in turn would cause him to drop out, and Kerry needs to finish 3rd or worse in Iowa to prevent him from hurting Clark's monentum in New Hampshire, AND hopefully will lose to Clark in New Hampshire. This will narrow the field down to seven, with four candidates with a serious chance of getting nominated. Once Kerry and Gephardt drop out, it's likely their supporters will coalesce around Clark and bolster his support as the "anti-Dean".

[jsw_81]

29. Kerry and Gephardt will drop out

The only way Dean drops out is if he loses New Hampshire.

And that will only happen in John Kerry's dreams.

[adamrsilva]

30. Who's voting for Dean and Clark?

C'mon people...

[Clark4Prez]

32. Gep

He will do well in Iowa, but his numbers in NH suck. If he doesn't pull 15% in NH, he will drop out and focus on his congressional campaign.

That's my prediction, but don't bet on it, I picked the Cubs to win the World Series.