|
Any political party is a Coalition. The Democratic Party is such a coalition and always has been. FDR's Coalition broke up in the 1960s and 1970s with the Southern Democrats taking the Religious right with them to the GOP (along with the racists). Labor bucklered during the same time period, but came back to the Democratic Party with Reagan (Through it took eight years of Reagan to convince many union members to return, but that helped Clinton get elected in 1992, under Bush jr Labor has returned ever more to the Democratic Party).
As to the GOP, it can be viewed as a coalition of the following:
1. Old Money Elite. This is Bush and his family and Friends. They believe since they have the money Government exists to protect that money and to help them make more money. They disliked the New Deal for it restricted they ability to exploit people and have been trying ever since to get back in power. Nixon showed them how, but Reagan sealed the new Coalition which is now breaking down. This group is the money behind the GOP. Without money you can NOT run a campaign so these are the real power houses of the GOP.
2. Southern Whigs. This group started out as that part of the Whig Party based in the American South. The American Whig Party took its name from the British Whig party. The British Whig party was known for its opposition the Crown, and the American Whig Party was know for its opposition to Andrew Jackson. It was a pro-business, pro large land owner party. Just prior to the Civil war, as the Republican party replaced the Whig Party as the Second party in the North, the Southern Whigs found themselves without a party, they would NOT join the GOP, do to its opposition to Slavery but could not stay alone. It thus joined the Democratic party in the South. It stayed with the Democratic party till the late 1930s when its natural tendency to be republicans overcame the regional hatred of the GOP do to the Civil War. The change was slow, most "Southern Whigs" stayed in the Democratic party till the 1970s, but the switch to the GOP increased in speed with Nixon and then Reagan. Do to the tradition of the South to keep electing anyone who is already in Federal office do to the seniority such re-election brings with it, the leadership of the Democratic party was heavily influenced by Southern Whigs till the 1970s. This has now switched to the GOP where seniority in the House and Senate favors these "Southern Whigs" who now lead the GOP.
3. Old Guard Republicans. These are NOT the money elite and unlike the Southern Whigs are throughout the rest of the Country. These are pro-business people, but not as rich as the Southern Whigs (Who themselves are not as rich as the Old Money Elites). These are an interconnected group of people, who through their connections find jobs and opportunities through the big opportunism are reserved to the Money Elite, the Money elite spread enough wealth to keep these people happy. These are the Lawyers, store owners, small businessmen, politicians, judges, bureaucrats and other people with connections that is the backbone of the GOP. Always a key part of the GOP, without it the GOP could not operate, and while the third most important part of the GOP (and in some ways #2) and a larger number of voters then the old money elite and Southern Whigs above, it is a smaller number of voters then each of the next three groups.
4. Religious Fundamentalists. Prior to the 1960s these were almost all in the Democratic party (and many are still in the Democratic party on the local level throughout the South). These are one of the three Vote Rich sections of the GOP (The other being pro-Gun/rural residents and Suburbanites). While Vote Rich, cash poor, thus are the votes needed by the GOP to win but not needed to fund a campaign. Progressive on Economic Issues, thus always a problem child for the GOP, but Conservatives on Social Issues. The GOP tries to keep them happy be emphasizing social issues, gay rights, abortion etc. and then avoiding the economic issues for when it comes to economic issues the Religious Fundamentalist believes it is the job of EVERYONE to help each other. Some Conservative Preachers have tried to change this by saying individual charity is what Jesus wanted for Charity through welfare is thief. Most Fundamentalist reject this argument but it is made to try to convince them to vote GOP. As long as the GOP could promise them to address the moral issues AND improve society by the GOP economic Program, reliable Votes for the GOP. The failure of the GOP to pass ANY meaningful restriction on Abortion and the over-use of Gay Rights as fear weapon WHILE the economic situation deteriorated drove them from the party. Many refused to vote for Obama, but did NOT vote for McCain either.
5. Pro-Gun Rural voters. Very important to the GOP, in the north the backbone of the GOP since the Civil War, in the South the Back bone of the "Solid South" till the 1960s (Where many, on the national level only, turned to the GOP, many are still Democrats on the state and local level). The Gop try get their vote by saying only the GOP can stop Gun Confiscation And help them with their rural economic problems. Like the Fundamentalist (Which often overlap with pro-gun rural voter group) the GOP try to keep them voting GOP but over the last few years the opposition of the GOP to improvements in Rural areas and the Democratic party statements that the Democratic party will NOT pass further gun Control laws, have neutralized these voters for the GOP. They want to hunt and fish, but they want the environment protected for if it is NOT protected where will they hunt and fish? The GOP support for bio-fuel is an attempt to show these voters that the GOP understood their economic problems, but so did the Democratic Party.
6. Suburbanite voters. During the post-WWII era till the dot.com bust of 2000 these were the most loyal GOP voters. The GOP kept them happy by saying the GOP wanted to cut taxes and then told them that the GOP claims to oppose abortion was just a ploy to get cotes, the GOP really does not mean it. Reagan played them like a master violinist, he emphasis tax cuts but also told them that Federal Services to THEM will not be affects (Reagan was going to balance the budget by ending the waste and Fraud in the Federal Government, which the suburbanites all knew was do to inner city politicians). The problem for the GOP is this group was the most hurt by the dot.com bubble and now the housing bubble. Furthermore Reagan's policy of switching from Collage Grants to Loans and hitting this group the hardest (Along with the GOP 1990s change in the Bankruptcy code that forbade discharge of student loans in Bankruptcy, and this group was further hurt by the changes in 2005 that further restricted bankruptcy).
7. Racist. Now most Racists before the 1960s were in the Democratic party, but as the South went GOP, southern blacks went Democratic (They had previously been GOP member). The Racists seems to follow the Southern Whig Leadership to the GOP and along with the Southern Whigs a solid part of the Southern Base for the GOP.
As you can see, the GOP has problems with three sections of the above seven part coalition (The Fundamentalist voter, the pro-gun rural voter and the Suburbanite voter), the hard part for the GOP is those three sections are the largest number of voters. Without all three groups SOLIDLY behind the GOP, the GOP can not win an election honestly (and with very weak support in all three sections the GOP can not even cheat they way into the White House). The GOP will try to keep them in, but I see all three slowly detaching from the GOP. I suspect the next eight years is going to be like the period 1932-1940 for the GOP. The Money elite will try to push its agenda. The Southern Whigs and old Guard Republicans will be used to do that. The Racists will be easy to join into the new coalition but the other three sections will want at least their economic concerns addressed. Tax cuts will NOT do it for any of those three groups, but that is what the Elite really want. This is what happened in the period between 1932 and 1936. The money elite believe since they had all the money they could defeat the reform efforts of FDR (I will ignore the attempt at a coup with General Butler, but with the elite nothing is impossible). Thus in 1936 the Old Guard Republicans were put in complete control of the GOP against FDR re-election. The GOP lost all by two states. By 1940 the party leadership had wised up and were no longer fighting to stop the New Deal (The 1940 GOP nominee was a former Democratic New Dealer who switched party do to opposition to FDR going for a third term more then any opposition to what FDR was doing). The reason he was picked was the leadership of the GOP had finally accepted the fact that the New Deal was to popular to undo, thus they went to minimize further Democratic Gains as oppose to reversing them. I see the GOP doing the same thing over the next eight years. Go even more conservative, see the GOP win some seats in the mid-term elections (almost always the case), take that as a sign the Country want them back and then in 2012 run a Conservative candidate (Someone to the RIGHT of McCain). Palin may be that candidate, she is to the right of McCain and hopefully she can bring with her some of the above three sets of voters, given what I suspect will be four hard years. The problem is Presidents do NOT get blamed for things the people believe is beyond their control, so I suspect in 2012 a even greater defeat for the GOP as the above three groups show they support for whatever policy Obama is doing. Whatever Obama does will be better then anything the GOP will be saying should be done. Something is better then nothing. The real question will be 2016. Will the American people prefer a Democratic Candidate or whatever Democratic-light candidate the GOP produces in that year (The Governor of Louisiana? Of Hindu-Indian background but a Roman Catholic, much more moderate then other GOP possibilities.
As to the Democratic Candidate in 2016, I see both Hillary Clinton and Biden being to old by that time (Hillary will be 69, which if she serves 8 years would make her 77 when the eight years are over). Obama is our first President who did NOT come of age during the Vietnam War (He was in Grade school at that time). We are looking at a new generation of Politician (Which is a big Switch, but a return to a normal pace of such switches, given the extended length of WWII vets, 1953-1993, Eisenhower to the end of Bush I's term, and the GOP ran a WWII Vet in 1996). Clinton was the first President who has NOT served in WWII, Bush jr was the Second, and both came of age during the Vietnam era (Through neither served and both made a special effort to avoid service). 40 years for the WWII generation (32 if you do not count Eisenhower) but only 16 for Vietnam. The Vietnam era was twice as long as the WWII era but produced 1/2 the Presidents. 16-20 years is more the norm for how long a generation can dominate a society, but major wars tend to produce long periods of Veterans in politics (WWI was an exception but then both Truman and Eisenhower served in WWI but then WWII was that much bigger). The Civil War produced a similar long line of Veterans (From Grant in 1868 till McKinley in 1901, through Cleveland had not served, but he was exempt for he was a DA at the time of the Civil War) as did the Revolution (Washington 1789 till Jackson whose term ended in 1836). Just a comment is an era ended in 1992, and type of era hopefully we will never see again for major wars like the Revolution, the Civil War and WWII also produced huge lost of life, injuries and miseries.
|
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
