Is there any logical reason to believe that the recount will go Franken's way?

[DCBob]

If there are just random errors then it will probably balance out and Coleman wins. Right?

[usregimechange]

1. No, undervotes more common among dems

[DCBob]

3. Please explain. Not questioning your claim I just want to have some real hope.

Thanks.

[BzaDem]

4. Undervotes are mostly caused by mistakes in marking the ballot.

These mistakes are more often made by first time voters, poorer voters, infrequent voters, and voters in high-population areas. All of these demographic groups favor Obama.

[DCBob]

11. So there will be visible examination of the ballot to determine intent and ..

there could be quite a few Dem ballots with "mistakes" that could be interpreted to be votes for Franken. Sound like this could get messy like Florida in 2000.

[Hansel]

33. And non-conformists

Progressive are more inclined than conservatives to be creative and not adhere to strict rules. So they would be more likely to circle or underline names, check the bubbles instead of fill them in solidly, mark outside of the bubbles, use their own blue pens, etc. All of which would cause the scanner to miss their votes.

I'm pretty sure if a conservative didn't fill in the bubbles exactly perfectly that they would have to bear the wrath of God. Or something like that.

[SoCalDem]

10. dems tend to be (as a group) poorer people and younger people

some ballots have "connect the arrows"..and a person may circle the arrow..or put an X in a bubble that needs to be filled in..

the intent is obvious, but the technique may not be gleaned from the robo-vote-counting machine.

[DCBob]

14. That sounds reasonable. Maybe a few hundred for Franken like that.

Hope so!! Thanks!

[backscatter712]

6. Yep. You beat me to it.

Undervotes and misvotes are more common among "vulnerable voters" - that is, first-time voters, elderly voters, young voters, minority voters, working-class or poor voters. They're more likely to do things like put an X in the bubble instead of filling it in like they're supposed to, or make a mistake, crossing it out and filling in the bubble they meant to fill in, instead of starting over with a new ballot, etc. They're also more likely to vote Democratic - by about 51% to 49%, given a race where in general it's tied.

Crunch the numbers (go to fivethirtyeight.com and watch Nate Silver crunch the numbers) and you'll find that Al Franken is pretty damned likely to get those 206 votes he needs to win.

[DCBob]

17. Ok. That's sounds like a real legitimate possibility.

Thanks!

[trayfoot]

27. Thanks! Definitely makes me feel better!

[Engineer4Obama]

7. As a computer Engineer I can tell you that machines have a strong conservative bias

case and point

[BlooInBloo]

9. Dude - the time for "we're doomed" is over. We just won in a landslide.

[Engineer4Obama]

13. Guess the humor wasn't conveyed correctly in my post

Sorry for any misunderstandings.

[BlooInBloo]

16. Ah - oops! We had weeks of "we're doomed, they're gonna steal it"....

It probably just to recent for the humor interpretation to be available to me.

[Engineer4Obama]

19. Its cool

I probably should have used this

picture instead.

[OwnedByFerrets]

30. Posts like yours

make me so god damned fucking furious. More so than it should. I honestly find it hard to believe that there are still democrats that deny repuglican theft of votes. YES, even NOW!!! Where the hell have you been?? Just because we won this election, we are supposed to disparage those who are trying to get the message out that election fraud is real??

If you care, there are tons of links to actual election fraud in 2008...this is just one.
http://www.democracynow.org/2008/10/22/votes

[BlooInBloo]

36. My apologies. We're doomed.

[Breeze54]

2. Yes.

:hi:

[Rahmbo]

5. Possible, but improbable... I hope he manages to pull it off

[w4rma]

15. Actually, the most likely result is that Franken wins. The demographics are in his favor.

Franken even picked up 28 votes, today. And the biggest most Democratic leaning counties are going to be the last ones to finish their recounts.

[BlooInBloo]

8. Yes, read 538.com.

[Johonny]

12. Yes and no

sure the under count favors Al. On the other hand the margin of the victory is well below the counting error. Meaning that it's basically impossible to tell who won the election.

[RollWithIt]

18. Some hope, Here's some links to good articles from Nate at fivethirtyeight.com on the subject:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/dartmouth-study-minnesota-undervotes.html

We show using a combination of precinct voting returns from the 2006 and 2008 General Elections that patterns in Senate race residual votes are consistent with, one, the presence of a large number of Democratic-leaning voters, in particular African-American voters, who appear to have deliberately skipped voting in the Coleman-Franken Senate contest and, two, the presence of a smaller number of Democratic-leaning voters who almost certainly intended to cast a vote in the Senate race but for some reason did not do so. Ultimately, the anticipated recount may clarify the relative proportions of intentional versus unintentional residual votes. At present, though, the data available suggest that the recount will uncover many of the former and that, of the latter, a majority will likely prove to be supportive of Franken.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/more-minnesota-madness.html

The freshest data, pulled from the state website minutes ago, shows Franken down by 206 votes. The total presidential undervote is 10086. The total senate undervote is 34916. If the senate undervote is allocated to Coleman and Franken along their fraction of the Coleman+Franken vote in that precinct, Coleman would receive 16573 new votes, Franken 18342, for a Franken gain of +1769.

[DCBob]

24. Thanks!

Sounds reasonable. Maybe Franken can pull it off.

[DCBob]

20. Funny. According to another post the recount is already just now showing Franken leading!!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7897897

Amazing!!

[scarletwoman]

21. None that I can think of. It remains a possibility, but not a very strong one.

I'm a Minnesotan, so of course all the local news media are all over the recount all the time.

Listening to Minnesota Public Radio on the way home from work this evening, there were detailed reports from correspondents witnessing the recount in four different counties. It's going to be a long, tedious process. In one county there were a total of 6 challenged ballots today. In another county there were 4. In another there were originally 4, but then both sides dropped their challenges so the net result was zero.

The county with the most challenged ballots was St. Louis county which includes the Iron Range and many tiny far North precincts -- one precinct had a total of 25 voters. They counted the smallest and most far-flung precincts first, and these are precincts without optiscan machines and even differently designed ballots. At the time of day this particular report was made, there were 20 ballots challenged by the Coleman side, and 20 ballots challenged by the Franken side. A lot of these were ballots that used a connecting line system rather than the fill-in-the-oval type of ballots that were used throughout most of the rest of the state.

Rest assured, we Minnesotans will be hanging on every smidgeon of news that gets reported about this recount. I can fervently wish that the recount will result in a Franken win, but there's no "logical" reason that I can see to expect it.

sw

[DCBob]

23. Yeah, that what I thought but maybe Franken can squeak it out.

Thanks Scarlet!

[FreeStateDemocrat]

22. Yes: Older machines in St. Louis County add to Franken's total

In several precincts in the Democratic stronghold of St. Louis County, Franken made a net gain of 28 votes today that officials said were faintly marked and therefore not originally picked up by an old brand of optical scanner.

http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/senate/34736454.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiUs

Franken is now ahead by 570 votes

[XOKCowboy]

25. Am I wrong but the "official" count was from the voting machines..

and the recount will attempt to count any provisional ballots. Is that right?

[scarletwoman]

26. Minnesota has an all paper ballot voting system. The only machines we have are for

COUNTING the votes, we don't have machines for CASTING votes.

There are no provisional ballots, because Minnesota has same-day registration.

The recount is a matter of hand-counting every single paper ballot that was cast on election day. It will include the paper ballots that the scanners were unable to read. That's the only category of ballot that might change the election day totals.

sw

[XOKCowboy]

34. Thank you very much for the info...

Who knew that Minnysodans would have such a transparent voting system! Gotta love them.

[scarletwoman]

35. As a Minnesotan, I am damn proud of our election system. I think we are a model for the whole nation

For more elections than I can remember, Minnesota has ALWAYS had the highest voting percentage in the country. This year our turnout was 77.8% of eligible voters.

When it comes to elections, Minnesota totally ROCKS! :D

sw

[Barack_America]

28. About as likely as the US electing a black man President.

;)

[IsItJustMe]

32. Bingo!!! Right answer!!!

[Flute]

29. The trend favors Franken

Remember that Coleman led by over 700 before seeing his lead shrink to 200+.

[ShadowLiberal]

31. According to 538.com there's 2 factors determining the winner here

1) A majority of the ballots not counted before but with voter intent clear will go to the democrat (in Florida, in a district Bush won by like 15%+ that had touch screen voter machines, just like the ones used in Minnesota, Gore won the ballots not counted by the machine where voter intent was clear by 5%).

2) Very few ballots get reassigned to another candidate in a recount (by that I mean ballots not counted, and ballots counted for the wrong person), even with the rules in Minnesota for counting ballots, a lot of the ballots not counted by the machines just don't make it clear what the voter intent was. (This is the reason why according to 538.com there was very little chance for Franken to win when he was down by 700+ voters, it was too much of a gap to realisticly make up, but with him down by 215 votes he stands a much better shot realistically of being able to win a recount).