Thursday Franken- Coleman recount thread

[Hokie]

The have started counting again. Follow the results here:
http://ww2.startribune.com/news/metro/elections/returns/2008/recount/msenco.html

The lead is down to 173 votes with 19% of the recount completed.

[seemunkee]

1. Franken, not Franklin

[Hokie]

7. Thanks, I could never type

[lapfog_1]

2. If that satistical trend holds

Al wins by 20 to 30 votes.

Yikes!

[iamthebandfanman]

3. some wont be done until dec 3rd?

sheesh ;)

[cherokeeprogressive]

11. I laughed when I saw that too. Makes it seem silly to have an "official" thread about it every day.

Silly.

[Hokie]

14. No this is the "Hokie" thread, not the official one

;)

[cherokeeprogressive]

16. Well how Hokie is that? Sheesh.

I thought it was the official one. Leave it to me to misread the title.

^5!

[jenmito]

4. It's up to 177 now. n/t

[Jane Austin]

5. Does anyone know what the "vote challenged" column means?

Challenged and accepted?

Challenged and thrown out?

Includes the plus and minus tallies?

To be counted later?

Thanks.

[Alexander]

6. To be reviewed later.

It might be accepted, it might not.

[Hokie]

8. I have been assuming that challenged votes are not in the new totals

These will go to a state canvassing board for final examination. The election may well be decided by those challenged ballots.

[Eric J in MN]

9. It means five people will vote on those votes.

Secretary of State Mark Ritchie (D) and four judges.

The five include 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans, and 1 Jesse Ventura appointee (Ventura was Reform Party now called Independence Party)

[riqster]

10. Each side has the right to challenge any ballot that is being counted

Next step for a challenged ballot is the State Canvassing Board, who will decide whether or not the ballot should be counted.

[Jane Austin]

68. Thanks, everybody,

for your answers.

[EconomicLiberal]

12. Question - are these challenged votes already included in the net gain/loss for each candidate?

Or will they be added to the net gain/loss once the 5 member board rules on them?

[dflprincess]

13. Odds are no they weren't.

They are probably ballots that were not marked clearly so the scanner couldn't read them and they will have try and determine voter intent.

[WeDidIt]

15. Once ruled upon they get added or tossed. n/t

[EconomicLiberal]

18. Thanks for the info.

So it seems that the final result of this election will be decided by whether these challenged ballots are accepted or rejected.

[IsItJustMe]

70. No. Yet to be determined by the final board.

[CatWoman]

17. Posting on another blog, this was just presented:

************************************************************************************************

By Paul

November 20, 2008 1:21 PM | Link to this

Democrats should be embarrassed. After all the accusations about the 2000 and 2004 results, the allegations of fraud that would occur this election by unprincipled Republicans…. well, this is what Democrats thru Al Franken’s campaign assert is a ballot that shouldn’t be counted.

Arguing over a hanging chad is one thing. Saying this voter didn’t intend his vote for Coleman insults one’s intelligence.

Link: Democrats challenged this ballot:http://blogs2.startribune.com/blogs/whistleblower/2008/11/19/one-challenge-headed-to-the-state-so-far-in-plymouth/


**************************************************************************************************

I didn't even bother to comment, as I'd like to see some of the ballots Republicans challenged.

[Eric J in MN]

19. The challenger may be a volunteer.

Al Franken didn't decide to challenge that ballot. There are volunteers challenging.

The challenger might be a volunteer for Franken or might be an attorney for Franken, but in either case a 5 person panel will quickly decide to count that vote for Norm Coleman, and so this is no big deal.

Here are more challenged ballots:
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/features/2008/11/19_challenged_ballots/

[IsItJustMe]

67. Thanks for the link. Very interesting to see what these counters are dealing with.

[abumbyanyothername]

57. I don't have too much of an issue with that challenge

Keep in mind that they are trying to process one ballot every 5 seconds, up there.

On a quick glance after looking at stacks of ballots for two days, it is possible and not improbable to interpret that mark as an "x" out of Coleman.

My first instinct was that the voter wanted to obliterate a vote initially made for Coleman, but I would be willing to accept the Board's ruling either way. I would want to put it to the board however.

[wellstone dem]

20. Watch margin of the number of ballots challenged by coleman vs. Franken

More Coleman challenges are a good sign. Most of these will not be upheld, and most will go to Franken.

[wellstone dem]

24. right now, how challenges likely factor into total

198 votes challenged by Coleman--most of these will go to Franken
136 votes challenged by Franken--most of these will go to Coleman

Most times the challenger will lose the challenge.

Coleman's campaign will not challenge votes assigned to Ccleman--so all Coleman challenges are either votes for Franken or votes for "other"

Franken's campaign will not challenge votes assigned to Franken--so all Franken challenges are either Coleman votes or votes for "other"

Right now this means approximately 62 more votes for Franken.

Bringing the margin to approximately 101 votes.

[catgirl]

21. Franken's down by 163

Keep it coming!

[Life Long Dem]

22. He could get that by tonight.

[EconomicLiberal]

23. Get what tonight? n/t

[Life Long Dem]

25. He's behind by less than 200, what did you think I meant?

I saw yesterday he was behind by about 500 votes.

[wellstone dem]

29. He was behind by 215 at the start of this process

Election night and a day or so after was behind by 750, and then 500 some.

But the official canvas was Tuesday and I think the number was 217 for that canvas. So we've come down about 30 some votes with one full day in.. Would take some big number shifts to move 173 or so in second full day.

The key will be the challenges which won't be resolved until Mid-December. Watch the margin between the two campaigns on the challenges. If it's a wide margin with Coleman challenging more, we've got it won.

[Hokie]

26. I agree. The # challenged is important

As of now, Coleman's leads in challenges by 62. I figure a fair number of these additional challenged votes (at least 1/2) are votes that would have gone to Franken if they had gone unchallenged. The other half are probably ones where the intent of the voter just cannot be determined. I think a large number of the challenges will be denied meaning the one with the most challenges will be the loser of the challenged vote count. That difference seems to be widening as the recount progresses.

[Hope And Change]

27. 156 votes now.

[Jersey Devil]

28. Now 156 with 21% recounted

Keeping fingers (and toes) crossed it keeps going this way.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

30. Where Are You Getting Your Totals From? Mine Says 177. Is That Old Or New?

[Hokie]

31. Go to the link in the OP and make sure to hit reload or refresh

[CatWoman]

32. Refresh your page

:)

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

36. I Did Silly. Right Before And After I Posted. Was Still 177.

But as of right now, it does say 156. I wonder why there was a lag in between different computers as to the refresh?

[CatWoman]

37. maybe your computer has the clap?

:rofl:

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

40. LOL

[Jersey Devil]

38. Well, now that Ted Stevens is gone some of the tubes are clogged

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtOoQFa5ug8

[wellstone dem]

33. with a margin of 67 challenges

Which means if no challenge is overturned, likely the difference is 89 or so.

[Jersey Devil]

41. Hopefully you are right about that although

one side could be more thoughtful about its challenges than the other, thereby skewing that theory. Correct me if I am wrong but aren't these challenges made AFTER the local voting officials decide who the vote goes to (if anyone) or are the challenges made before any local decision is made?

I realize none of the challenged votes will count until reviewed on the state level.

[wellstone dem]

43. They are made after the ruling

the voting judge says, "Franken vote" (or something like that) Coleman challenger says, "I challenge as the intent appears to be for Coleman (or for other)." Supposed to address intent with the challenge as that is Minnesota law. There is no argument at the site, if it's challenged the review board will decide.

And yes, the theory is a rough one, but since there has already been a ruling, is more likely than not that the ruling will be upheld.

[Jersey Devil]

47. I agree if the challenge is post local decision

Just read some more on it and the theory that the one with the least challenges will wind up with the most votes seems sound.

[Jersey Devil]

42. oops back to 164

I don't know that there is any reason or pattern to any of it

[CatWoman]

45. where are you getting 164?

[Jersey Devil]

46. from the tubes - hit refresh (nt)

[Undercurrent]

34. Al's closing the gap.

Hoping and watching.

[thoughtcrime1984]

35. This is fascinating!

It could conceivably come to down to just one or two votes. Imagine the lawsuits!

[City Lights]

39. The gap keeps closing!

Keeping my fingers crossed that the trend continues! :bounce:

[4lbs]

44. Franken may end up winning by less than 50 votes if this trend continues.

Nail-biter time!

[camera obscura]

48. Wow! Down quite a bit from last night already.

[Undercurrent]

49. A shift in the trend. :(

Al down by 165

[Jersey Devil]

51. maybe not

now 161 again. This is like water torture

[Zynx]

59. I really hoped that one thing we learned from the pre-election polls and the vote count

on election night is that there really isn't all that much of a trend ever in politics. Most times, fluctuations are just that.

[rufus dog]

50. He is good enough...

smart enough... and doggone it people like him!

Quit stressing, he will win by 500.

[Undercurrent]

52. I'll to relax. ;)

I'll settle for a win by any margin. Al will be a good Senator. Very smart and capable man indeed.

[S_E_Fudd]

53. Down to 161...and if you assume...

That the vast majority of the challenged ballots will be counted(most are being challenged for trivial reasons), COleman's lead shrinks to about 100 or so.

[brooklynite]

54. There's no point in micromonitoring this...

Different counties with different vote profiles are going to report their results at different times. The numbers are going to bounce around for days. Better to look at the big picture after 25% and 50% of the votes are counted.

[Muttocracy]

60. esp. since Hennepin, Ramsey, and St. Louis are in the first round and they went strongly for Franken

and are the most likely to give him more uncounted votes (young voters, new citizens, etc.)

[blueclown]

55. Al is now down 159 votes. n/t

[This One]

56. This is more fun than watching the stock market

[desktop]

58. When Franken wins get ready for the GOP to say stolen election

From what I heard, O'Liely has already certified Coleman the winner, setting up for the screams and cries of stolen election when Franken wins recount. You know O'Reily will go insane.

[SoonerPride]

71. Who cares?

Let 'em scream.

[Undercurrent]

61. Check out this site!

Actual photos of some of the challenged ballots, and you can vote on them.

Challenged ballots: You be the judge
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/features/2008/11/19_challenged_ballots/

[Muttocracy]

62. pretty cool - I voted with the majority on most of them.

[IsItJustMe]

75. I did also. but I did call one for Coleman. The one that had Frankin filled in, but then the voter

drew a line with an arrow on it pointing to Coleman. I bet some of these ballots are hard to figure out.

[Muttocracy]

77. I REALLY hope it doesn't come down to the ones like that one. nt

[IsItJustMe]

80. I know what you mean. A scanner would have read that as a vote for Frankin. But upon inspection

with the human eye, one could come to the conclusion that the intent of the voter was for Coleman.

Or you could just throw it out. I would not really know what to do with it.

[Muttocracy]

63. there are larger images showing more of the ballots too:

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/11/19/slideshow_challenged_ballots/

[Dinger]

81. I Wonder If Some Of Those were Tampered With, After The Fact? nt

[1776Forever]

94. That is neat - Most of the ones I picked had the most votes.

Thanks!

[grantcart]

64. 157

[Secret_Society]

65. 157

[Jersey Devil]

66. 155 (nt)

[IsItJustMe]

69. I wonder if both parties can challange the same ballot? If this is the case, then we won't know the

number of ballots that are in dispute when the recount is finsihed.

[grantcart]

73. yes

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/11/19/slideshow_challenged_ballots/

This slide show gives examples of challenged ballots including challenged from both sides.

[Hokie]

74. I suppose they could on a no vote

That would be rare I would think. It would only happen if a ballot were ruled a non vote and both sides thought there were marks that could be interpreted as a vote for their candidate.

[lessthanjake1234]

72. Looks like Franken is on pace for a narrow victory

Probably of less than 50 votes.

[Hokie]

76. Lots of variables

I like the trend as the lead narrows but it will be interesting to see if a pattern emerges. This could come down to the challenges plus the disputed absentee votes that were tossed. If Al wins this the GOP will whine until hell freezes over that it was stolen. I only have one word for them on that, "Florida".

[mzmolly]

78. Horse teeth is currently leading recount by 160 votes

:crazy:

[thoughtcrime1984]

82. John Elway? Heh.

I think Coleman will win by 100 votes, unfortunately.

[nico818]

79. Come on FRANKEN!! n/t

[Undercurrent]

83. 187?

:(

[SoonerPride]

84. What if it ends up tied?

And no I'm not kidding.

[BzaDem]

89. Some MN official said there might be a coin flip. n/t

[Hope And Change]

85. 158 now.

[grantcart]

86. 142 quite a jump

[wellstone dem]

87. 136 now, won't change again until tomorrow!

[EconomicLiberal]

88. 136 now! n/t

[S_E_Fudd]

90. Not coming fast enough...

At this rate Franken will come up about 30 votes short

[grantcart]

91. "What do we want?" "Patience" "When do we want it?" "NOW

The election gods have determined that Al will win with 8 votes, to be found in the last day of recounting.



It is a particularly sinister torture aimed directly at Bill OReilley and designed to put him in full Cardiac Arrest.



The gods will have their fun and then send Senator Funny Pants to the United States Senate for the enjoyment of all (well some).

[4_Legs_Good]

92. Yeah, I'm getting nervous

This is likely going to come down to the challenged ballots. What fun that will be!

David

[lessthanjake1234]

93. Whoever wins will win by less than 50, I think

[Hope And Change]

95. 136 now.