Good News! We will never go into a recession in 2008-2009

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

People always say we are not technically in a recession because the definition makes it difficult to be *in* a recession.

It is defined in terms of quarterly GDP which isn't announced until well after the fact, so the definition requires that the best we can usually say is "We now know that we WERE in recession."

But since Goldman Sachs is predicting that this quarter will be -5% (!!!) that means when the numbers are finally announced we will go from "We are not technically in a recession" to "we are technically in something approaching depression"

From prosperity to depression! Cut out the middle-man.

[denem]

1. (sigh) If only Poppy Bush had one more year

he could have had a shot in 1993. Damn you WJC!

[area51]

2. Good news ... we can't go into a recession ...

because we've already been in one since 2001.

[Ediacara]

3. They keep whispering the D word on NPR...

and by D word, I mean deflation. Which is a Depression's calling card.

:-(

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

4. Deflation is the one thing a central bank can always counter

A central bank can always induce inflation simply by printing money. So if we go into a deflationary spiral it will be pure malfeasance.

But the potential down-side of induced monetary policy inflation is bad enough that nobody wants to undertake it lightly.

Fortunately Bernanke is one of our foremost theorists of the last-ditch expedient on induced demand/inflation. I trust him to wreck the dollar if it comes down to that.

It is hard to overstate how much money has been created the last few months, and it's still not gaining traction, but there's plenty more paper in those warehouses!