Nate Silver predicts a Franken win by 27 votes!

[Hokie]

If you can follow the mathematics in Nate's analyis you must be a statistics whiz. He says that he would put Franken as a slight favorite at this point.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/projection-franken-to-win-recount-by-27.html#comments

[tekisui]

1. Take it to the bank!

He was right about everything so far. He was the first to call it for Begich!

Congrats, Senator Franken!

[tigereye]

3. yeah, that guy is amazing

when I was worrying about the most recent Pres. election, he kept showing me fivethirtyeight, and I told all my worried friends to check it out.


Impressive! :wow:

[roguevalley]

54. he fascinates me, math made physical. what a brain he has. I'd love

to go play roulette with him.

[Hokie]

6. Don't get too excited yet

BTW, I predicted Franken would eventually win by 125 votes. I would be happy with Nate's lower number as long as Al wins.

[BlooInBloo]

2. Wow - I figured it was game over after seeing that Coleman increased his lead....

Apparently Yogi Berra was right.

[EconomicLiberal]

9. Coleman increased his lead because he made a lot of frivolous challenges on Franken ballots

When Coleman challenges a Franken ballot, he takes a vote away from Franken's column.

Most of these challenges are likely frivolous and these votes will become Franken votes once again in the near future.

Coleman is playing games right now.

[BlooInBloo]

13. Gotcha. Guess that's what I get for taking a few days off of my blogs. Heh.

[breadandwine]

55. But EconomicLiberal, WHY is Coleman playing games right now?

It seems to me that the answer is simple. He plans to win in the courts. He can say a Franken vote is a duck. He can say a Franken vote is a cupcake. It doesn't matter because if he can pull some strings and get a GOP judge in on the situation to resolve disputes, the GOP judge will say anything Coleman wants. Like, the Moon is made out of Worcestershire sauce. This is what happened in Florida in 2000. They got it to the Supreme Court and the Supreme Court said, yessiree Bob, Bob, the Moon is made out of Worcestershire sauce.

I strongly suspect that Coleman has friends in the right places who will ensure the "correct" judge or judges get in on the act and swing it for Coleman.

THAT'S why Coleman is making frivolous challenges to Franken votes. They are only frivolous if there is a rule of law, and the GOP will get their judicial buddies to ensure that there isn't. This is why I fear that the count we are now seeing is what we will get, with frivolous challenges upheld in the end to everyone's astonishment. The GOP is totally brazen and they will do anything to win.

[Hokie]

10. Read the earlier article about how the numbers aren't accurate now due to the challenges

Nate had an earlier article that I linked here where he said to ignore the current results due to all the challenges.

[BlooInBloo]

14. Yupyup - thanks!

[onehandle]

4. Onehandle predicts this will be going on well into December.

In court. And likely to the senate itself.

Oh, if only the looney left in Minnesota hadn't wasted their votes on a third party loser.

[hlthe2b]

5. I hope Franken pulls it out but there is some ironic symmetry

in this happening to his race, given the years of his pooh poohing issues around black box voting and the stolen elections of 2000 and 2004 on his radio show and afterwards--even when RFK Jr. and Mark Crispin Miller tried to present evidence to him. Not saying there is anything wrong with Minnesota's system (as it seems this is a highly evolved and protected system), but just it is ironic that he should be the one so dependent on the reliability of that system.

[Cha]

8. And, followed the words of Paul Wellstone

who when asked why he was even in the Democratic Party..answered that he "had missionary Within the Democratic Party."

[scarletwoman]

16. It wasn't the "looney left" that voted third party, it was regular people who didn't like either

Franken or Coleman.

Good grief, the third party candidate was way to right of Franken, why in the world would lefties have voted for him? If you actually knew anything about the Minnesota Senate race, you'd never have made such an idiotic statement.

I'm a Minnesota lefty; I, and all my fellow lefties, voted for Franken. It was non-partisan centrists/moderates who voted for Barkley, alot of them in protest against the ugliness of the campaign fight between Coleman and Franken.

sw

[onehandle]

26. I've read up on him.

He's a left-leaning pseudo Libertarian.

Naderites went to him. Bank on it.

[Bjorn Against]

30. We live in Minnesota, we are part of the progressive community here and we all voted Franken.

And if you read up on Barkley and determined he was part of the "looney left" then it is clear you did not read closely enough. It was the more conservative Democrats and independents that voted for Barkley, not the left.

[onehandle]

43. Regardless, he was a spoiler. And he drew more Democrats than Republicans.

"They're looking more and more like spoilers at this point, pulling swing voters away from the Democrats," said David Schultz, who teaches political science at Hamline University in St. Paul. "They certainly aren't getting enough votes to win, but the IP has been capturing the swing votes."

Nowhere was the impact of the party more pronounced than in the still-knotted U.S. Senate race. With only hundreds of votes out of nearly 3 million cast separating Republican incumbent Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken, Independence standard-bearer Dean Barkley got more than 437,000 votes.

And, according to an exit poll conducted Tuesday, if Barkley hadn't been running, Franken would have netted more than 20,000 additional votes.

http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/33944709.html?elr=KArksac8P3iUec7PaP3iUqc8P3UU

Some of the left went to Barkely.

Nader bragged that he drew votes from the left, right, and center in Florida, 2000.

Nader was a spoiler and long before November's election, local political reports said that Barkley would be one too.

He was.

[scarletwoman]

46. I never argued that Barkley drew from Democrats, I just argued with your characterizing them as the

"loony left".

Franken was a crappy candidate. The DFL should have gotten smart and kicked him to the curb as soon as the all stupid tax stuff came out. Had the DFL nominated a progressive with deep roots in Minnesota politics Coleman could have been much more easily ousted. But no, they had to go with the guy with a giant target on his back from the very start -- the Repubs LOVED that Franken was the DFL's choice. Rich pickin's for their slime machine, they hardly had to break a sweat.

The IP is a perennial problem. The DFL needs to get smart and push for IRV while it still has a majority in the state legislature.

sw

[onehandle]

48. Ok, not all. Not most. But enough were.

Some reports called him "DFL-lite." Some of his platform stands were pretty liberal.

Thousands of his over 400k votes were definitely Naderites.

Eight years later, Nader still got tens of thousands of votes in Florida.

Some people never learn.

[scarletwoman]

50. "Thousands of his over 400k votes were definitely Naderites" Do you have some backup for that claim?

Nader is a spent force, and has been for years. It's just ridiculous to keep flogging that dead horse.

I live in a rural precinct which consists of little else but farms, some cabins here and there, and part of an Indian reservation. Out of 107 people who voted for Obama, only 85 voted for Franken. 3 voted for Coleman, 18 voted for Barkley, and 1 was a write-in.

I've worked as an election judge in my precinct over several elections, so I pretty much know who votes here. And I can tell you that I'm absolutely the most "left" person in the precinct. There are no "Naderites" here.

I can also tell you that lots of rural precincts broke down along similar lines. All over the state, around 20-25% of Obama voters broke for either Coleman or Barkley in the Senate race. I doubt it had as much to do with ideology as it did with a general distaste for Franken, specifically. A different Dem could very well have done better.

sw

[scarletwoman]

37. Naderites? Sure, all 3 of them.

:eyes:

I live here in Minnesota. I don't care what you read, I actually witnessed how the race went down. There was nothing "left-leaning" about Barkley's campaign. His campaign was basically "a pox on both their houses", and the classic Libertarian schtick of "get government off my back".

Conservative Dems who didn't want to vote for Coleman, but didn't like Franken either, were Barkley's main voting bloc. You're ranting about a completely imaginary enemy.

sw

[onehandle]

44. See reply #43. nt

[camera obscura]

38. I know people (family members included) who are leftist liberals but voted Barkley

protest vote, plain and simple. His positions were irrelevant.

[Bjorn Against]

29. You do know that Barkley was not a lefty don't you?

While you may like to rant about the "looney left" it was the people who call themselves centrists that voted for Barkley. Barkley is from the Independence Party, the same party as Jesse Ventura who he worked for. The Independence Party is a party that tries to position themselves in between Republicans and Democrats, they have more in common with the DLC than they have in common with the progressives.

Get your facts straight before you blame everything on the left.

[Touchdown]

41. I think it was more that guy who voted for "The Lizard People"

He colored in Franken's name, but spoiled his ballot by writing in "Lizard People".:rofl:

[scarletwoman]

47. See? There's *one* "loony who didn't vote for Barkley!

:P

[backscatter712]

7. Nice! Still very wide margins of error...

Anything can still happen, but Nate Silver's math-fu is strong, so this analysis is encouraging.

[Hieronymus]

11. When will the recount end?

[scarletwoman]

19. The regular hand recount ends on December 5. The following week the Canvassing Board will begin to

examine the challenged ballots -- which will apparently number in the thousands at this point.

The Canvassing Board is supposed to issue its numbers on December 16.

I might be slightly off on the exact dates, since I'm doing this from memory, but I know they're in the ballpark. (For example, it might Dec. 3, not 5 -- or Dec. 19, not 16)

All the information is posted at the MN S.o.S. website, if you want to look it up.

sw

[Hieronymus]

21. Thanks

[BlooInBloo]

12. Note also that regression is a linear algebra issue, not a stats issue...

Stats is just a consumer of regression; linear algebra is the manufacturer.

[Hokie]

17. I am an engineer and not a math major

Forgive my ignorance! I am fascinated by analysis and probability theory, however. What do you think of his analysis?

[BlooInBloo]

18. A lot of DUers called me a "538 whore" during election season. Answer enough?

In any case, you don't need my opinion - Nate is a *modeler*; and with modeling, the proof is in the pudding. He gets em right a lot more than he gets em wrong, and he gets em right more than the other guys. Conclusion: he's got a knack for the art of mathematics.

[Hokie]

20. I may have followed your links to Nate's site

I became hooked too. He nailed most of calls on states and was close on the popular vote spread too.

[BlooInBloo]

22. Heh - here's a funny "whore" thread - damn it's nice to be right - hahahah!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=7585814

[Hokie]

25. That's funny :)

Are you a whore?

No, I'm a mathematician.

[Dinger]

15. Let It Be! K & R! nt

[ellie]

23. Sara Smith at Daily Wonkette

calls Nate Silver everyone's favorite pretend boyfriend and she is right. I just love him.:loveya:

[BlooInBloo]

24. Jezebel has Nate 4th on their sexiest list....

http://jezebel.com/5093450/the-10-sexiest-everyday-men-of-2008

Which makes me think: I've spent a few years now playing up "stupid". Maybe now's the perfect time to revert back to "smart".


EDIT: Replaced anaphor with its antecedent in subject.

[Jennicut]

34. Mathematicians = the new sexy

You heard it here first.

[BlooInBloo]

35. If I had a nickel everytime I've heard that...

I'd have a nickel.

Watch out my little chickadees! Daddy-Bloo is comin to getcha!

:rofl:

[Cha]

39. Geeks are

gods!

[Ishoutandscream2]

42. Yes, it's time for the geeks to take charge

The stupid popular kids need to go. Now.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

27. -180 right now.

[wroberts189]

28. ..in other news freepers and trolls heads exploding. eom

[FVZA_Colonel]

31. What are the odds Coleman will try and pay for another recount?

[Hokie]

33. This will be the only recount

I think the only issue that could be litigated is are the rejected absentee ballots that Franken has requested to examine. this one could go into January and be up tot he Senate to decide.

[RichardRay]

32. Nate has earned a lot of cred this election season...

and if Franken wins by anything between 1 vote and 53 votes Nate will have totally made his bones. If he wins by exactly 27 he'll be a risen master among political prognosticators.

[Borgnine]

36. Ah, 27 votes. Or, as George W. calls it...

...a mandate!

[polichick]

40. Wow, a little too close for comfort but I'll take it!

[trayfoot]

45. Geeze, I hope so!

Just checked the Star Trib site and he is still 180 behind.

[DCBob]

49. If it's that close there will further challenges and recounts.

We may not know who won for quite some time.

[malik flavors]

51. Nate's my homeboy, but I'll believe this one when I see it.

[Phoonzang]

52. I love Nate but come on. Give me a break.... nt

[kevinds13]

53. Is this before or after all the litigation?

LOL

I hope to god he's right. Senator Franken sounds so good.