Secretary of State used to be the grooming job for the "annointed" next POTUS

[Recursion]

When did that stop?

Washington's (extremely shrewd) choice of Jefferson as Secretary of State was, even back then, decried as his picking a "favorite Republican" (in today's language, "favorite Democrat"). Madison and Monroe both came up to Presidential status as Secretaries of State.

But by Seward's time (he's up there with Marshall among the truly great Secretaries of State, in my opinion) it was a bureaucratic/wonkish position -- I don't know that anyone ever seriously considered Seward as Presidential material. In fact, it's only connection with Presidential candidates since then has been as a consolation prize (eg W. J. Bryant, and frankly H. R. Clinton). For that matter, Mrs. Clinton as far as I can see is the first SoS in a long time with a vibrant elected political career.

I ran an analysis during the primaries of previous jobs of persons elected President, interestingly Secretary of State is still #1. What changed? Or are we moving back to SoS being a President's nod towards an unofficially designated successor?

[galaxy21]

1. Hillary would be 68 by then

And unfortunately I think there's a vanity issue with the American people. They don't mind older men, but an older woman may be different. Look, at Palin. Would people have liked her if she was in her sixties?

[TheWraith]

2. They don't really like older men anymore, either.

Look at all the concerns about McCain's age. Rightly so: the last time we elected a president in their late 60s was Reagan. There's a legitimate concern about mental decline.

[XemaSab]

3. If McCain was hale and hearty, it would be different

but that dude's obviously starting to go through the decline.

There's a BIG difference between a fit, healthy 70-year-old and a declining 70-year-old.

[TheWraith]

6. True enough, but it still comes back to age and fitness.

And over 65 is still a scary place to be for a person who needs to be razor sharp every minute of every day. Nobody was wondering about Hillary's age during her campaign, but if you added on 10 years, even with her remaining healthy...

[Jennicut]

17. Actually I think older women are take more seriously are younger women are seen as more like

floozies. Sad but true.

[adoraz]

29. no way in hell palin would have got all the attention she did

if she wasn't an attractive (to some) young woman. She never would have been the VP nominee.

That is why so many people liked her, especially men.

A lot of people see older woman as more of a threat, almost like a person's mother if that makes any sense.

[MrModerate]

4. Holy-Moly! Seward came within a cat's whisker of defeating Lincoln . . .

For the nomination, and had been gunning for the job for years. Lincoln was, of course, a political genius and outmaneuvered him, but Seward was clearly the second-best choice for 1860 (although his presidency would probably have been a disaster -- the South seceding but no Lincoln to claw them back).

He didn't run after the Lincoln years only because he was too old, too badly wounded on the night of the Lincoln assassination, and realized that nothing was going to keep Grant out of the White House.

(He also -- purely unironically -- wanted to spend more time with his family.)

[Recursion]

5. Gah! I had no idea

I had somehow remembered he was a laughed-at also-ran that year and that Bell was the big contender.

But that still puts him in the same category as Bryan or Clinton: a past competitor. The Secretary of State was at one point the definite protege of the President, and I'm curious when that changed.

[Posteritatis]

7. Since when?

I can't think of a single president in the last century, maybe century and a half, who was Secretary of State before getting elected. Most were state governors.

[AtomicKitten]

8. I thought that was the VP.

[wisteria]

9. Yeah. n/t

[Bucky]

22. Depends on the president. Neither Biden nor Satan were considered political heirs

Poppy Bush was, Gore was, Edwards was--God help us, possibly even Palin was. But others are there for marketing purposes (Lieberman, LBJ, Quayle) or for a shot of quick gravitas (Henry Cabot Lodge, Dick Cheney, LBJ again). We've come a long way from the pure "ticket balancing" days of Teddy Roosevelt and Chet Arthur.

[Alexander]

10. Last SOS to be POTUS: Martin Van Buren. First VP to be POTUS: Martin Van Buren.

I think the whole Secretary of State/Vice President "heir apparent" thing changed when Martin van Buren won in 1836.

[Recursion]

13. Umm... Madison, Monroe, Jefferson... NT

[Alexander]

20. Yes... they were all SOS before Van Buren...your point?

[hughee99]

18. First VP?

Adams and Jefferson were both VP before becoming POTUS.

[Alexander]

19. Sorry, meant elected.

[BlooInBloo]

11. Thank you for that trip down 100+ Years Ago Lane....

It's always nice to get little tidbits of history, even when they bear precisely zero relevance to any current affairs.

[wisteria]

12. Sure, why not. I am now convinced that we will never be rid of the Clinton's.

After Hillary, then the daughter should run. Better yet, why not make the daughter VP next time and them she can run for president.

[SwampG8r]

14. that stopped before buchanan i think

been a long ass time since anyone credibly could claim SoS was POTUS training

[Recursion]

15. Agreed: what changed and when? NT

[Bucky]

25. Buchanan's Secretary of State ran for president to succeed him (1860)

[Hippo_Tron]

16. I'm pretty sure Andrew Jackson ended that

Secretary of State was a good launching pad to the presidency in the days before the electors were actually elected by the people. Jackson was the first "populist" president and thus the insider experience of the Secretary of State wasn't such a plus anymore. Van Buren was Secretary of State but he was basically elected because of his association with Jackson.

[Bucky]

23. Well, President Bartlet was grooming Secretary Berryhill to succeed him

Wasn't James Blaine of Maine considered a front runner back in the late 1800s? Or was he SecState after his prime?

[Hippo_Tron]

27. Well that fascist Speaker Haffley kinda got into the way of those plans

Fortunately we got President Santos so it's all good.

[NoPasaran]

32. Interesting, Blaine

After a decade and a half in Congress (including several terms as Speaker) and the Senate, he was Garfield's SoS, the unsuccessful Republican nominee in 1884, and then again Secretary of State for Harrison.

[Bucky]

21. Seward, James Blaine, and WJ Bryan (among others) got the job as "elder statesmen"

That post has generally been a spot for the president's chief formal "graybeard". Certainly Washington was not grooming Jefferson as a political heir--if he had anyone in mind after Adams, it would have been Madison. Madison put Monroe in as SecState as a way of containing a potential rival, not as a way of grooming a successor. But certainly Monroe had JQ Adams in mind as his heir.

More recently Sec of State has gone back to being the senior most party elder, with the exception of Clinton, whose two SoS's were simply senior diplomats or foreign policy specialists--the Cyrus Vance/Henry Kissinger model for the job. That's the sign of a president who plans to run his own foreign policy. Republican SoS's have tended to be presidential timber--Baker and Powell come to mind first.

I don't think there's any hard & fast rule--most administrations feature a balance of elder statesmen and future leaders, from the post of VP down to Attorney General--everyone below that in pecking order is a wonk.

[Beacool]

24. Well, so much can happen in 8 years.

A lot will depend on the success of the Obama administration. If it's successful, people may be willing to vote in another Democrat. If it isn't, they'll throw us out like we all threw out the Republicans this year. Hillary, like Obama, are in a separate category than other candidates. They, along with Bill, are larger than life. No one else in the history of this country got as many votes in a primary as Hillary and Obama, a woman and a black man, how's that for historical?

So, is Hillary viable and could she run again in the future? Hell, yes. Indira Gandhi and Golda Meier weren't glamor girls when they ran for office and won.

;-)

[Bucky]

26. You're wrong about Indira

quite the vixen, that one...











and this is Golda in her 20s

Beside the point, of course, but well worth the look

[Beacool]

28. I didn't mean that they were ugly women.

But they certainly weren't in their 20s when they ran.

Indira was 60 when she got elected and served a 3 year term (1977-1980) and she was 67 in 1984 when she again was chosen and was Prime Minister at the time of her assassination.

Golda was 71 when she was elected and served from 1969-1974.

So, definitely Hillary wouldn't be too old to be president in 2016.

As for looks, Hillary can hold her own:

[nsd]

33. Indira Gandhi's case isn't really applicable.

As elsewhere in South Asia, Gandhi's ascension to the prime minister position was more a matter of dynastic succession. She was Nehru's daughter -- her age and looks didn't matter. In the same way, her son Rajiv succeeded her as prime minister on her assassination and today Rajiv's widow is the head of the Congress Party.

People criticize the Clintons for nepotism but it's really not the same thing.

[Beacool]

34. Yeah, I know.

My only point was that age is not necessarily a hindrance.

:)

[adoraz]

30. mccain's age was more of a concern this election

than obama's race, at least according to exit polls. whether or not that is true is unknown, but I think it is pretty obvious McCain's age was a big issue.

For a woman, it will probably be a much bigger issue. So much has to do with appearance and what Hillary will look like in 8 years.

I really don't think Palin would have got half the support she did if she was a 68 year old woman. So many men accepted her because she was young and attractive.

There have been scientific studies that people, especially men, are a lot more willing to put a young attractive woman in power than an old lady.

[Beacool]

31. True, but things change.

Two years ago who would have predicted that a charismatic black man with a razor thin resume would end up being our president in 2008?

Life takes many twists and one never knows where it'll take us. We'll just have to wait and see.

:shrug: