Obama's Agenda & The Difference Between Tactics & Strategy (Nate Silver)

[jefferson_dem]

Obama's Agenda & The Difference Between Tactics & Strategy

There is, to say the least, a lot of jumping to conclusions about just which type of President Barack Obama is liable to be, by which I mean whether he'll govern from the left or the center. This speculation has been principally based on his cabinet appointments, a subject that people may be reading too much into. The initial Bush cabinet contained a number of people who could be described as moderate or center-right, including Colin Powell, Tommy Thompson, Norman Mineta, Christine Todd Whitman, Paul O'Neill and arguably Mitch Daniels and Ann Veneman. Obviously, this was balanced out to some degree by the Rumsfelds and the Ashcrofts, but it is not clear that Bush's 2001 cabinet was any more right-wing than Obama's 2009 cabinet is left-wing. Bush ran a very conservative government -- but the authority came from the top down.

Most of this discussion, moreover, has dwelt in the realm of tactics, presentation and salesmanship rather than grand strategy. One can "govern from the center" and implement a number of liberal policies -- by shifting the Overton Window a couple of panes at a time, and selling classically liberal policies as commonsensical and centrist. (Which, in the case of some major items like health care and clean energy, they already are). Likewise, as David Sirota notes, one can co-opt leftist rhetoric, enthusiasm and mindshare and implement a centrist agenda, as Bill Clinton arguably did.

In the case of Barack Obama, however, I would argue that there is not as much need to worry about tactics. If his campaign was any indication, Obama is not much of an outsourcer -- he will dictate the tone of his administration. Moreover, we actually have quite a bit of information about what his longer-term goals are. This morning, I went to Obama's website and began transcribing essentially all the specific policy proposals that he was willing to commit to publicly -- as you will see, there are dozens and dozens of them. I then began classifying these positions on a truncated political spectrum running from liberal/progressive to center-right, further dividing the policies into economics and taxation (green), other domestic policy (yellow) and foreign affairs (blue). Here is what I came up with:

<SNIP>



http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/obamas-agenda-difference-between.html

[mirrera]

1. This is helpful...Thanks!

[gcomeau]

2. Bump for those having an anurism...

...every time Obama announces an appointment.

[FrenchieCat]

3. I'm going with that......

as this has been my point from the get!

[Cha]

4. Rec'd! Bookmark!

This is a great thread, Jefferson..thank you! Now I love Nate Silver:bounce:

[last1standing]

5. Nate's an incredible statistician but that doesn't necessarily expand into political knowledge.

First, I'll say that Obama's latest round of appointments has definitely made me feel better about him. There have been some solidly progressive names put forth lately.

Second, what do Colin Powell, Tommy Thompson, Norman Mineta, Christine Todd Whitman, Paul O'Neill and arguably Mitch Daniels and Ann Veneman all have in common? They were all replaced by more conservative bush* friendly cronies.

And third, the policies listed in that chart are definitely slanted to make Obama seem more progressive than he really is. As an example "Universally accessible healthcare" is not the same as single-payer universal healthcare which would be a progressive policy. That's not to say that Obama doesn't have some progressive tendencies, but I doubt even he would call himself such.

[JJ]

6. Depends on how you define terms

What the chart above defines as center-right, I would define as far-right. As for repealing the Bush tax cuts, that would fall flat in the center. There are many other definitions to argue with on that chart as well, I feel most of the items in the "Progressive" column belong in the center.

This has been the problem for more than a generation, the other side has been allowed to redefine terms, and thereby set the agenda, effectively eliminating any possibility of a truly fair and progressive Government.

[gblady]

7. very interesting....

love how Nate's mind works.

[Undercurrent]

8. It took a math nerd

to lay out the borader picture. The overarching strategy, as opposed to this tactic or that. This is what I have been trying to tell my friends and family when they were in a tizzy about a particular cabinet appointment.

btw: I love math nerds. I married one. My first husband was a Rhodes Scholar mathematician.

[Median Democrat]

9. OMG - That Is So Nerdy It Almost Makes Me Look Cool!

Overall, I do think the debates over labels are more devisive then informative. My take is that if it works, great. If it doesn't, then junk it, which is my attitude towards Bush's policies.

[davidpdx]

10. ah damn

I just posted this