Nate Silver Predicted I would post this thread about Nate Silver

[Ichingcarpenter]

He's just that damn good.

Anyway, here is some facts about Nate Silver you might not be aware of.

Mr. Silver has believed in numbers the way authors believe in words, as capable of expression and provocation, since he was young.

He “was a numbers fanatic,” said his father, Brian Silver, a political science professor at Michigan State University.

“When we took him to preschool one time, we dropped him off, and he announced, ‘Today, I’m a numbers machine,’ and started counting,” Brian Silver said. “When we picked him up two and a half hours later, he was ‘Two thousand one hundred and twenty-two, two thousand one hundred and twenty-three...’ ”

By kindergarten, he could multiply two-digit numbers in his head. By 11, he was conducting multivariate analysis to figure out if the size of a baseball stadium affects attendance (it doesn’t). By age 13, he was using statistics to manage a fantasy baseball team. When his parents refused to buy him computer games, he taught himself the Basic programming language and created his own.

He graduated from the University of Chicago in 2000, and was working for (and bored by) the accounting firm KPMG when he began messing around with baseball statistics. He tried to predict players’ performance based on their similarity to players from the past, like Bill James, a pioneer in baseball statistics, had done. But unlike Mr. James, Mr. Silver adjusted for body type, including factors like height and weight, discovering, for example, that taller pitchers age better.

He built a predictive system called Pecota around that, and sold it to Baseball Prospectus, a statistical organization, in 2002, staying on as a writer and consultant for the company. For the 2007 season, he correctly predicted the White Sox would lose 90 games. And for the season that just concluded, he predicted the longtime basement-dwelling Tampa Bay Rays would be a top team.

“I think everybody in our field is pleased and proud to see Mr. Silver’s work in political analysis taken seriously, and I’m sure that analysis is shaped to some extent by the ways of thinking that have been developed in our field,” said Mr. James in an e-mail message. “It’s a vicarious pride, much as one takes in the performance of the old school’s football team.”

Late last year, Mr. Silver, an Obama supporter, became frustrated with how primary poll results were being reported, and how sloppy polls and rigorous polls were given the same attention.>>>snip

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/business/media/10silver.html?_r=3&pagewanted=1&sq=nate%20silver&st=cse&scp=1\

[tekisui]

1. Wow.

He's one cool dude.

[Schema Thing]

2. Nate Silver will predict w/in 2 weeks the date of Chuck Norris' death

[okieinpain]

3. ah man that's not cool. n/t.

[Schema Thing]

6. Nate Silver decides what is cool.

[okieinpain]

10. now that is funny. n/t.

[Phx_Dem]

12. Damn straight.

Smart is in, and Nate if way beyond smart.

[qazplm]

8. Chuck Norris can't die

he just round-kicks Death in the face.

Then again, Chuck Norris IS Death, so there is an interesting conundrum.

Can Chuck Norris defeat himself?

[Johonny]

9. that's a trap

Everyone knows Chuck Norris can't die

[tridim]

4. Revenge of The Nerds!

In polling AND politics.

[TygrBright]

5. Very intriguing-- that last bit about possibly analyzing and predicting Congressional votes...

...now that the election is over.

I'd find a website like that compulsively addictive, but then, I'm a legislation geek.

speculatively,
Bright

[CatWoman]

7. Fuck that!!!

CARNAC reigns SUPREME!!!

[burythehatchet]

11. I heard the fame has changed him.

Apparently he's purchased an LA mansion and gotten into the Peruvian flake.

His entourage is pretty wild and unpredictable. He's gotten an asshole agent and is only doing actuarial gigs on projects that he thinks will advance his career.



(sorry: Entourage season ended last Sunday)

[rug]

13. He's the Chuck Norris of Math. He can divide anything by zero and end up with something.

[Ichingcarpenter]

14. Nate Silver Predicted everything you guys would say already

He did it in this thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7929917#7930822

[TexasObserver]

15. And Nate Silver correctly predicted I would be the 5th recommend for this thread.

Damn, he's good!

[Celeborn Skywalker]

16. Is he Hari Seldon?

(Nerds will know what I'm talking about)

[Ichingcarpenter]

17. When are they gonna make a TV mega series on Sci-Fi about those books?

They could update them and they would still be relevant.

[Celeborn Skywalker]

18. I would love that.

Someone told me they were starting work on a trilogy, but I haven't seen if that's confirmed.

[Dinger]

19. Didn't Have Something To Say About The MInnesota Senate Race?

Like a Franken win?

[Sebastian Doyle]

20. Nate Silver calculated the odds that I would kick this thread

But whatever it takes to knock the kitty turd off the top of the forum :evilgrin:

Seriously though, Silver's good at what ever it is he's been doing.

[malik flavors]

21. Nate Silver can walk into a bar and predict how many cuties he'll be taking home that night.

The ladies love a numbers man.

[Poiuyt]

22. So what? I can walk into a bar and predict how many cuties I'll be taking home too.

It would be zero

[malik flavors]

23. Well, for your sake I hope you aren't as consistently correct as Mr. Silver