NV-Sen: Things Look a Little Dicey for Reid

[ccharles000]

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (11/23-25, likely voters):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 46
Jon Porter (R): 40
(MoE: ±4%)
Looks like Nevadans are feeling kind of lukewarm about Harry Reid these days. ("Lukewarm" and "Harry Reid" in the same sentence? Wow, I'll bet that's never happened before...) In a prospective 2010 matchup, he's beating Jon Porter (who recently got bounced from his NV-03 seat by Dina Titus) by six points, although he's well below the 50% comfort level.

The numbers below the fold look worse for Reid; his approval/disapproval rating is only 38/54 (luckily, Porter's are little better at 40/39). When asked whether they'd choose to reelect Reid or consider replacing him, respondents say 32% reelect, 23% consider someone else, and 41% say replace him. Against a strong challenger with a statewide reputation, Reid could face some real trouble, leaving him possibly the only endangered Dem-held seat in 2010. However, between the badly depleted Republican bench in Nevada (Porter may truly be their best bet, as Lt. Governor Brian Krolicki may be looking at indictment rather than a run against Reid, and Rep. Dean Heller is likely to either stay in place or go for Governor) and Nevada's rapid demographics-driven bluening, this race could just as easily turn into a non-issue.

http://www.swingstateproject.com

[msongs]

1. any good dems that can primary reid out of the election? nt

[Mojambo]

2. No one deserves to lose their job more than Harry Reid

But it would suck to have another (R) Senator.

Perhaps if Reid had actually done his fucking job he wouldn't be in such a bad position.

[FrenchieCat]

3. He'll look way better after a year of an Obama administration.....

But yeah...him and Polosi are not exactly charisma central....and their actions have been quite nauseating in many ways.

[onenote]

4. With the exception of 2004, Reid's elections have generally been close

Reid actually first ran for senate in 1974 and lost by only 624 votes. He didn't make another run for the Snate for 12 years, winning his seat in 1986 with just 50 percent of the vote. Six years later, as an incumbent in a year that the Democrats captured the WH, he still managed only 51 percent of the vote (his margin over his closest competitor was a comfortable 54,000 with third party candidates and none of the above (allowed in Nevada) collecting a significant percentage of the vote). In 1998 he barely squeaked by, winning by 400 votes (and getting only 48 percent of those cast). It wasn't until 2004 that he had a comfortable win, taking 61 percent of the vote. Of course his opponent in 2004 was so lame that two weeks before the election, polls were showing that 45 percent of the electorate didn't recognize the guys name (Richard Ziser).

[MrModerate]

5. Surely there's another dem . . . *any* dem . . .

Who could ease him out! He's maybe the single most responsible individual for the Congress (Senate and House) not doing jack shit with the results of the 2006 election.

Gawd, the opportunities wasted!

[stevedeshazer]

6. Having spent considerable time in Nevada, anything can happen.

Nevada is, well, different from anywhere I've been, and I mean that in a good way. (I live in a state that borders Nevada.)

Most Western states have a Libertarian bent. That could hurt Senator Reid's chances, because there definitely is a 'throw the bums out' mentality not just in Nevada but everywhere.

The DSCC went after Mitch McConnell on his home turf; there's no reason to believe that the Repubs won't do the same.

This will be very interesting.

[Rydz777]

7. The Democratic Senate has a deep bench. It could perfrom

very nicely without Reid.

[Hawkowl]

8. Reid is a loser

I would settle for a Rethuglican (I can't even believe I'm thinking it) to get Reid out of a leadership position. Reid actually allowed a love fest for FUCKING STEVENS! On the senate floor. I just wanted to puke as Reid praised TED FUCKING STEVENS as a great Senator. A convicted felon?!?

So in addition to having no spine or leadership skills, apparently Reid admires convicted felons. Fuck him. A junior republican senator with no power for ousting Reid? I'll take the deal.

[quakerboy]

10. Who would be likely to take his

leadership position?

If we would be trading Reid for someone of the same flavor, while giving up a senate seat, then thats a bad deal. Its only worth it if the replacement would be better.

[davidpdx]

9. Reid should step aside and let someone else be majority leader

and go back to the basics. If he is able to assist Obama, he might be safe. As majority leader though, he's a wuss.