Does anyone think America will go broke in the next 8 years?

[Ozma]

What would America going broke look like?

Would we all be selling pencils and apples on the street like in the 1930's? Will there be any street?
Will there be any pencils or apples?

Let's face it, eventually there is an end to the amount of $ that the US government can borrow, when there are no more rich people to buy the bonds. No more China, no more rich municipal fund and savings bond buyers, no more American banks or rich Americans who want a tax break.

If the USA spends 700 Billion on a stimulus package, paves roads, fixes bridges, repairs schools, etc. etc. What will the world invest in when there is no more $ or pounds or yen to buy American debt?

Think about the above before dealing with my thoughts below.

I think 90% of investment should be in self-sustainable green energy for the USA, Canada and Mexico.

Within these 3 nations, we have perhaps 40-50% of the oil, coal,uranium, and other mineral resources of the world. We also have the technology to produce more than 140% of the foods and fiber needs of all three nations, if only we can get ourselves off the oil import treadmill.

Major changes in our way of life, $5 a gallon gas, mass transport in 1000 major cities, living with 65 degrees in your house in the winter and wearing sweaters, driving with full tire inflation, having 99 degree heated water for everything except for dish washing, buying less for Christmas and cooking more for gifts, going to one or two movies a year, watching the rest on your wide screen TV, shopping on the internet instead of going to malls,taking one plane trip a year for business and doing all the other conferencing in a you tube fashion with business partners, taking one flight a year to see relatives for holidays or vacations, no more, having your windows lined with corn-based clear plastic for winter months to save $200 in loss of heat, spending 50-70% of your income, saving the rest for retirement, and having all health care delivered as you need it, but paying nothing other than taxes for it.

All of these are possible future lifestyles for us all, there are probably others. Comment on my premise, and my thoughts on how we all may be affected while America goes broke, EVEN WITH Obama as our leader. Can you live with this change we may feel in the next few years?

One final thought, some of you have $50-100 K jobs out there, and have no expectation that you will be laid off in the next year or two......fine......lots of people in 1930 thought they had weathered the storm, only to be selling pencils or apples on the NY streets in 1934.

[liberalmuse]

1. We're broke now.

We just don't know it yet.

[quakerboy]

59. yup

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

2. Very few people able to retire

most having to continue working.

[Ozma]

7. I retired five years ago, think of how I feel.

Gas was $1.25 a gallon, milk $2.50 a gallon.
I paid 25% less in real estate taxes.
I bought Christmas gifts all for less than $20 for my family, $15 for friends, and they were good gifts.
I drove 5000 miles a year on vacation.
I gave $500 a year to my charities.
I volunteered 25 miles from my home twice a week.
I bought a good shirt on Lands End for $20.
I paid $5 a month total for my 3 medications at CVS with my insurance coverage for the other $100.

[elleng]

3. America IS broke.

We 'own' the printing machines.

[indepat]

9. Money can always be printed: it's just a question of whether it will take almost

a wheelbarrow full of greenbacks to buy a loaf of bread, or somewhat less or more. :P

[Ozma]

15. No, you miss some chapters of how money is printed

In order to print a $1, we have to have BORROWED that money from someone.

We don't just print $ bills without making promises to someone.

you need to study a little more economics and how the US government gets permission to print $.

Inflation goes wild when there is no way to borrow $ in order to print more.

Please learn the basics of economics and inflation.

[indepat]

45. No doubt my 401(k) would be much healthier had I learned the basics of economics

and inflation. It's a shame those on the national scene seemingly haven't learned the basics in economics and inflation nor the basics in governance. :P

[WinkyDink]

4. The only issue I'd raise would be mall vs. Internet. I understand the energy savings part, but I'm

disinclined to want small (or large) retailers put out of business.

Besides, computers suck up energy, too. :)

[Ozma]

11. Run your computer for 24/7/265 and you use less than

10 gallons of gasoline in your car, even if you drive a Prius.

I see no problem with local folks, local stores, bookstores, camera stores, clothing stores, specialty stores, food, antiques, etc. getting a web site rental for less than a month's rental for a storefront......making money by selling to people in 500 towns rather than 5 towns............think outside your box.......

You may love your local market, so go there once a week, buy what you need and can use, and enjoy the experience, go to specialty shops two or three times a year, and make sure they know they can sell in Iowa or Ireland on the internet.

[WinkyDink]

13. I live in an area where I not only do what you suggest; I'm positive the local merchants are aware.

[Ozma]

39. So you are prerfect? and your merchants don't need drivers to

come driving up to their storefronts?

So what's the problem?

[GodlessBiker]

5. Might the US stop paying interest on T-bills or whatever?

[Warren Stupidity]

8. We actually can't do that.

At least not without a constitutional amendment. Instead inflation is the usual remedy for debt obligations that can't really be met.

[Ozma]

12. Very wise, INFLATION is the ONLY way out.

So, if you make $1000 a week, it will be worth $200 a week in 15 years.

Now, will Soc Sec follow that? Will my $1600 a month become $6400 a month in Soc Sec?

I doubt it.

[jody]

6. Depends on what you mean by broke. The one percent who own 50+% of our financial wealth, control

every major multinational corporation, and control the Senate, House, and White House will continue to prosper along with their lackeys.

We the People however will be eight years older and deeper in debt.

[Ozma]

17. Right on one point, but ...You fail to get the point, you are looking at today's reality, and not

looking at what can happen when the nation can no longer borrow money from anyone, or cannot pay their debts to the lenders.

That one percent of Americans who own 50% of the capital wealth of the nation will NOT re-invest in industries like Chrysler, Ford, GM, GE, etc etc.........because those enterprises are both 1) poorly managed, and 2) unsecured by the US government debt.

So their money will go elsewhere, but where? How much will it be worth when they invest in polluting industries in China, India, etc etc? Their wealth will be halved or quartered in world markets within 5-10 years.

And when they were big fish in a modest sized pond of 300 Milion, they will be small fish in an ocean of 6.5 Billion.

[jody]

19. IMO the one per-centers use the power of our government to protect and expand their world wide

investments.

They own 50+% of our financial wealth but they don't pay 50% of the cost of operating DoD and its Foreign Legion and sons and daughters of the one per-centers don't die on foreign soil to protect family assets.

[Ozma]

34. I agree with your analysis, but........it is

not forward thinking, now, is it?

It is present and backward thinking. Care to look at how those rich folks in the USA will get to control world markets? Care to say how they can expect 10% returns on investments in India, China, Saudi-Arabia when the USA no longer consumes 25% of the world fossil fuel energy, and when the American dollar is worth 1/4 of what it is worth today?

[jody]

35. Competition and conflict throughout history has been between powerful special interest groups. In

the 21st century it will be between groups on the international scale.

The New World Order that has been hyped should be recognized as New World Disorder to see which of three or so groups end up controlling the world.

Any way one dices the future, We the People are doomed in a century or two. :shrug:

[Uben]

10. Absolutely, positively, no!

Of course we won't be bankrupt. Hell, I haven't even broke my last twenty, yet.

[Ozma]

18. O OK n/t insightful?

[TheBigotBasher]

53. RAther like the banks the US Economy

will not be allowed to go bankrupt. It was a lunatic strategy and probably not intended but Bush has ensured that is the case. If you owe the bank $1000 and can not pay back it is your trouble. If you owe the bank £100,000,000 and can not pay it back, the bank has the problem. If you owe the World $1,000,000.000,000 it is everyones problem if it can not be paid back.

[leftofthedial]

14. 8 years?

how about February of 2009?

[Ozma]

21. Oh man, we have enough engines and momentum

to make it through to next year, to the winter, a harsh winter, but we can support 99% of Americans with
stored food, grain, oil, gas, electricity, through next winter, not THIS one, the next one.


Heck, 102 Pilgrims set off for America in 1620, 50 or so made it to the next spring, 4000 miles away, without oil, gas, corn wheat, fresh fruit, wood, coal, etc etc.

Let's make sure you have 4 -10 days of food in your house, three sweaters to wear in 58 degree heating, (or no heating and fireplaces).......can walk to the store for food or cannot find a store within walking distance....

How prepared are you all for a winter in 2009-2010 of hardship?

[leftofthedial]

42. most people don't have land or knowledge to grow food

very few people know how to hunt or fish for food (not to mention that there is not enough wild food for 300,000,000 people), few know how to stay warm without heat, most can not get from point A to point B without an automobile


We aren't the pilgrims anymore.

Plus, the people who own the stored food aren't likely to give it away for free.

[cali]

48. quite prepared

wood for stove, passive solar heating in my small energy efficient house, gravity fed water, lots of kerosene lamps and a month's worth of food. That's the way I've lived for 25 years.

[gravity]

16. We elected the good guy this time

America will overcome whats ahead of itself like it has done countless times in history.

[Ozma]

22. Is there a rational argument to go with your logic?

Or do you just expect the second and fourth lines in a song to rhyme?

Wishful thinking is fine, and Obama is an inspiring man, but inspriation is 1 % 99% is perspiration......some of which requires your honest assessment of the second part of my post.

[gravity]

23. You can solve these problems

They may require sacrifice, but it can be done.

[Ozma]

31. OK so you have no problems with my

analysis of two sweaters in the winter with 62 degree house heat?
All the rest of what I talked about is OK with you?

[gravity]

40. The situation isn't that dire

For example, all you really have to do is raise taxes to balance the budget. Problem solved.

There is no need for these doomsday scenarios, when you there are realistic practical solutions to these problems.

[terrya]

20. The national debt is, what, $10 trillion now?

If that isn't the definition of broke, I don't know what is.

[Ozma]

25. GDP is 30 Trillion......EVEN IF

The national debt is 10 Trillion.......

We can finance our way out of it, in 10-30 years, particularly if our economy recovers within 3-5 years, with only 10-40% INFLATION.

You have a rational post, with factual information, so here is my thinking.

Maybe someone (you?) will follow along and challenge me on this.

We have to re-formulate the American energy consumption equation within 5-10 years, totally eliminating dependence upon imports of oil based products from other than the two American continents, preferably all fossile fuel based products coming from North America, with an expansion of all solar, geothermal, wind, tidal and other energy sources by 400% within 4 year.

This will effectively free our dependence upon fossil fuel imports from the middle east, FOREVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!


We can expand all those green sources by 10-20% a year for five years, basically making fossil fuel sources only needed for airplanes, some trucks, trains, few cars, fewer homes and businesses. making sure the USA, in 10 years, is 80% self sufficient upon her own sources of energy production.....gaining the rest from Canada, Mexico, and South America, easily, with trade treaties, opportunities for free study in the USA for 1000 of top students from those nations, invest in our own power sources, invest in their most brilliant children to form future alliances, make sure we keep reducing our carbon footprint, make sure we keep telling the Middle East how unimportant they are to the future of the world's energy needs. Even Europe and China and Japan and other major consumers will follow our lead, getting off the fossil fuel dependence in 20 years.


OK time for me to eat supper.........anyone following me? I know it's sketchy here, but do you get how important the energy scoruce shift is? And why little else matters?

[BumRushDaShow]

56. GDP is NOT $30 trillion. It is $14.42 trillion.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDP

And with $10 trillion of debt, that leaves roughly $4 trillion left. But then the idiots offered to lend up to $7.7 trillion if necessary.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=arEE1iClqDrk&refer=home

And if that happened, then that would leave us with -$3 trillion and we would be totally bankrupt.

We are not just BROKE. We are fucking egregiously BROKE.

[TexasObserver]

24. Nope. We're not broke, and we're not going broke.

[Ozma]

27. Opinion? Facts? Links?

Oh wait, you have so many posts here you don't need facts!


And you observe the world from Texas, best place to look at what is going on around the world, for sure.

[TexasObserver]

32. The US isn't broke, & won't go broke. But don't let that stop your Chicken Little dance.

Your posts indicate a lack of understanding of economics that makes explaining it to you a waste of time.

[Zynx]

26. Japan's gone to 140% of GDP in national debt and they still function.

We've actually had higher shares of debt to GDP than this before, briefly after WWII. We'll survive. It will take a while of sober budgets to recover.

Public debt is actually "only" about $6 trillion. The rest is held by Social Security and Medicare against the general fund and that is not an immediate crisis. We can borrow a great deal more than we have.

[Ozma]

28. A very well informed poster! O l like those a lot more than others

who just post their opinions and swoon for Obama. Don't get me wrong, I think Obama probably knows what you know, and can navigate this into prosperity 10 years from now, if Republicans don't shit and piss on his gloomy parade.

A couple links would help your post have other people believe, I am on board with your opinions....because I probably read what you did....let's get the rest of America up to speed on this.


Thanks!

[Zynx]

43. I was a little lazy with links. If people start really harping on Obama I can show

them how the numbers will work in the future and why we can afford this.

[Davis_X_Machina]

29. WWII saw our go to 120% of GDP.

After the Napoleonic Wars, Britain's debt was a whopping 250% of GDP. And we all know what happened to Britain in the period 1820-1860.

[Ozma]

30. Great point, but...There's something called "the industrial revolution" you left out of

your view of history.

Care to comment on the changes I predict in American/Canadian/Mexican and other lives on this planet before that ratio of national debt to GDP gets resolved here?

[RollWithIt]

33. It's not possible under the current system for the US to go bankrupt....

We just print more money. Besides, the world doesn't want us to default anyways.

[Ozma]

37. NO, you are misinformed about printing money, but you are right

No one wants us to go broke.

Anything else to tell us?
Any links? Any thoughts about our need to sacrifice in the next 3-9 years?

[RollWithIt]

41. I was giving a general answer and you jumped all over me... lol... the next 3-9 yrs?

I personally believe that we should spend whatever it takes federally over the next two years to stabilize the economy and create new jobs. It takes money to make money and I support Obama's plans to invest 1-2 trillion into the US system over the next two years. I believe that deficit spending is a foregone conclusion. Now, don't get me wrong, I think we really do need to go line by line and make serious cuts to programs that aren't working. All I care about is investment in future at this point. I believe those investments, particularly in manufacturing and science, will pay for themselves in less than a decade. We need serious investment in the middle class and the poor. Serious investment in infrastructure road, rail, and air. Serious investment in alternative energy. Serious investment in international trade that is beneficial to BOTH SIDES.

I could go on and on. But I believe we should spend. A lot. We have to double down and I believe the Obama Administration can do their math.

[Puglover]

49. You keep asking folks to post links.

How bout posting some of your own. :hi: The reason I ask is you have some rather strong thoughts in this OP and I'd like to know where you are sourcing from.


Thanks

[Name removed]

50. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[CK_John]

36. At the level of nations, money is just a concept. Look at Somalia, no government but...

millions of goods and services occur everyday. Some large transactions are in the form of Ransom, but without a govt means no one is keeping track or collecting taxes.

[cliffordu]

38. yep. We're toast right now.

I want to see the people responsible for this jailed and stripped of all their possessions.

[windbreeze]

44. Sadly, I believe we are already broke...

What does it look like??? Look around, you'll see what it looks like...from years of fighting unnecessary wars, trillions in debt...then add years of sending all our manufacturing jobs/base out of country...rich corporations, and poor people...I don't know about you, but I already know people who had no money for food for Thanksgiving this year...who knows what next month will bring, or what year will bring...wb

[TK421]

46. Given everything I have seen, heard...are we not broke now?

too many businesses that have been around for many years are closing their doors, and it seems so sudden to me, but perhaps I missed the warning signs. Someone pointed out this link to me, I don't know if it's BS or not but....

http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/

That's pretty fucking scary if it IS true

[Hippo_Tron]

47. Where do you get the idea that the rest of the world is going to run out of money to loan us?

Of course eventually there is an end to the amount of money that the US can borrow. But what makes you think that a $700 billion stimulus package is going to even push us close to that limit? In addition, you have to take into account the amount of money we are going to save by pulling out of Iraq.

I would add that the United States can still borrow money at a cheaper rate than anybody else in the world. If people thought we were a credit risk they would jack up the interest (not buy Treasury Securities at such a low rate).

[Waiting For Everyman]

51. Our Treasury creates money for the Federal Reserve to lend to banks at 0%

which then charge us 6% to lend it back to us (maybe, if they like our credit scores, otherwise we're blackballed). Then our debts are securitized and leveraged at 50 or 100 to 1, and with those profits the rich fund our national debt, which we then pay them for again at whatever interest rate.

Wouldn't it be simpler for us to nationalize banking, and lend direct to our own people at a reasonable rate without all the profiteering middlemen? Just convert the banks to servicing that in a cost-limited and transparent way? Then we might have have some clue how much the debts really are, and how much they're worth.

[tomreedtoon]

52. Daily drive-by shootings on your street.

An end to expensive funerals; just dig a hole and dump your kid's body in.

An end to the foolish beliefs that teachers are dedicated professionals as they torture kids openly in the classrooms while administrators look on and laugh.

No more expensive health care. When a machete-wielding crackhead cuts off one of your arms, you bandage the stump yourself. Medicate yourself with some of the drugs you buy from the streetcorner vendor.

Finally, an end to the pretense of hygienic American food as Rachel Rae shows how to prepare human bodies for a festive holiday feast. (Her current recipes aren't too far away from that.)

In other words, the Libertarian Paradise.

Aren't you glad you started this depressing thread, Ozma?

[rasputin1952]

54. $11 trillion in debt,,,what do you consider broke? I think we're already

there.

Add the massive # of job losses and manufacturing/retail losses, if we're not already financially in a dry well, just when do you expect us to be there...:shrug:

[TexasObserver]

58. We are not broke, we are strained.

If your income is $5000 a month after taxes, and your total outgo after taxes is $4800 a month, you're not broke. You're making about $75,000 or so a year, and you're servicing debt that might be three times that figure.

Individuals, businesses, and governments can service debt far larger than their annual revenues.

The US is strapped, and we won't get out of this without spending like Roosevelt did. If we make sure the money spent builds jobs here, we'll be fine. We're not broke. We're a country that is strapped and has to be smarter.

[rasputin1952]

60. There are merits to your view...but we must pay down the amt we owe...

that is $11 trillion in debt w/interest building daily. W/o an increase in tax revenues, ( spectacular one, as long as a massive decrease in spending), we are broke. Neither of those things are in the works. There are huge layoffs in the near future, further depleting revenue, and tax loopholes that benefit obscenely wealthy individuals and corporations, outside funding has dried up and future Federal shoring up of miserably run companies and banks...w/o draconian measures, we are going to kick into a depression.

The key is, we've spent ourselves into near oblivion, and de-regulation has greased the skids. We will get out of this, but Americans and the world will suffer for a long time. I haven't even taking into account the incredible increase in population, which increases demand, but also deflates jobs and incomes adding incredible pressure on an already faulty system.

[Sex Pistol]

55. I am sure that there are many who do, but I don't.

[tabbycat31]

57. we are broke

and I would happily pay more in income taxes if I had a decent income (right now i have no income :-( )