http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/11/22/12502/182/928/663167by brownsox
Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 09:50:04 AM PST
In 1972, 78-year-old incumbent Senator B. Everett Jordan of North Carolina was toppled in the Democratic primary by a young, more liberal Congressman from Durham, Nick Galifianakis.
In the general election, the 44-year-old Galifianakis squared off against an arch-conservative radio commentator and executive and former Raleigh City Councilman named Jesse Helms. Helms ran with the not-so-subtle campaign slogan "He's One Of Us", using Galifianakis' Greek heritage as a wedge, and managed to ride Richard Nixon's 41-point victory in North Carolina to a narrow victory of his own. He became the first Republican Senator elected from North Carolina since Reconstruction, and only the second from the entire South.
Since Jordan was defeated in that 1972 primary, his successor Helms has been the only Senator from North Carolina to win reelection even one time. Helms won reelection four times (never with more than 54% of the vote). Meanwhile, beloved Democratic Senator Sam Ervin retired in 1974, to be replaced by moderate Democrat Robert Morgan. Morgan was toppled in his bid for reelection in 1980 by Republican John East, amid the Reagan landslide. East died in 1986, and his Republican successor James Broyhill was defeated by former Democratic Governor (and Duke University president) Terry Sanford.
Though a popular moderately liberal figure, Sanford was defeated in his bid for reelection in 1992 by staunch conservative Lauch Faircloth, but amid the 1998 backlash against the Clinton impeachment (of which Faircloth had been one of the most prominent supporters), Faircloth was defeated in 1998 by insurgent Democrat John Edwards. After just one term, though, the youthful Edwards gave in to his presidential ambitions, and upon his retirement, the seat was won by its current occupant, Richard Burr.
Meanwhile, Helms' successor, fellow Republican Elizabeth Dole, served one term and was defeated for reelection in 2008 by Democrat Kay Hagan.
This is the political history which Richard Burr now faces as an incumbent Senator. The Raleigh News-Observer writes that in the wake of Hagan's win - and a resurgent year across the board for Democrats in North Carolina - some big-name Democrats are gunning for Burr, in the person of State Treasurer Richard Moore and Attorney General Roy Cooper.
Burr, who faces re-election in 2010, is looking nervously over his shoulder.
Rumored to be considering the race are Attorney General Roy Cooper and state Treasurer Richard Moore, both Democrats.
Burr has garnered a lot of respect across the state. He is smart enough to master complex issues such as medicine and bioterrorism; he returns frequently to North Carolina; and, although he may be as conservative as Helms, Burr has an inclusive style, not a polarizing one.
While Burr isn't as polarizing as Helms, the state certainly seems a bit less conservative than it was when Helms last won reelection in 1996. After all, North Carolina just gave its 15 electoral votes to a fairly liberal, Northern black Democrat, the first time the state has backed a Dem for president since 1976.
And the news that Moore and Cooper are considering a run is very bad for Burr. Cooper is likely the first choice of national Democrats; he has proven a popular Attorney General, winning reelection with 61% of the vote in 2008.
Moore was talked up heavily as a potential Senate candidate in 2006, as was Cooper. Moore's star seems to have dimmed a bit of late, however, since his failed 2008 run for governor (he lost a fairly bitter primary to Governor-elect Beverly Perdue).
Cooper and Moore aren't the only ones considering a run for the seat. Enter U.S. Representative Heath Shuler, a former NFL quarterback, real-estate tycoon, and high-profile Congressional recruit in 2006.
U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler is not yet sworn into his second term, but some Democrats hope he sets his sights two years from now on a run for the Senate.
That election would pit Democratic nominee Shuler, a star quarterback at Swain County High School and the University of Tennessee, against U.S. Sen. Richard Burr, who played defensive back at Wake Forest.
Shuler said he has not ruled out a run for Senate, but wants to focus now on Congress.
Shuler is a conservative vote on social issues, without question. He's quite a lot better on economic issues, however, particularly labor and environmental issues. He's young, handsome, has star power, and a base in the Western, Appalachian part of the state, an area which is traditionally not a strong one for Democrats.
The last name currently mentioned is that of Rep. Brad Miller, who was also considered a potential candidate in 2008. Miller is significantly more liberal than Shuler. In a strong year for Democrats, he would be a very viable candidate, and he would have stood a good chance of winning if he had run this year against Elizabeth Dole.
If 2010 is not a great year for Democrats nationally, however, Miller's liberalism could hurt him in a run against Burr. With Obama and the new Congress not even sworn in, it remains to be seen how things will shake out. It could be a pretty good year for Dems, or a relatively bad one.
Miller was recruited to run in 2008, but passed; Cooper, Moore and Miller are probably kicking themselves for passing on the race, as Kay Hagan beat the incumbent quite badly in their stead.
Overall, Cooper will likely be heavily recruited for the race, and should be the state and national party's top choice.
Shuler would probably be a stronger candidate statewide than Miller, but Miller would almost certainly be a better vote for Democrats in the Senate. It remains to be seen how much mojo Moore has left after the somewhat divisive gubernatorial primary this year, but he was certainly a very popular and highly regarded state treasurer.
Regardless of who steps up to the plate, Richard Burr is going to have a tough fight on his hands to retain his seat.
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
