Zogby: Bush running 7-points behind his 2000 total with Rural voters

[WI_DEM]

Snip:
Despite the view by Senator John Kerry's campaign that rural voters will be a potential swing group, Mr. Kerry is behind President Bush in this horse race by 15 points--52% to 37%. The good news for Mr. Kerry is that he is already even with Vice President Gore's total in 2000 of 37% while Mr. Bush is running 7 points behind the 59% he took in 2000. There are still 8% who say that they are undecided.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=864

In the suburbs Bush and Kerry are in a statistical deadheat with 46% for Bush and 44% for Kerry. But Suburban voters give Bush only a 48% approval rating.

Other interesting election statistics in this article.

[cthrumatrix]

1. look for Fox to share this with viewers

[wildwww2]

2. Zogby stopped contacting me for online polls. My e-mail is still the same.

And I always completed it and sent it. Polls are skewed so the squatter can steal it again. I am sure of it.
Peace
Wildman
Al Gore is My President

[napi21]

3. I still get their emails, but they obviously don't contact me every

week. Sometimes it's 2 weeks in a row, then not for 3 or 4 weeks. I suspect they do some random selection with the online polls, same as they do with the pone calls.

[lanparty]

4. The polls are all fucked up right now ...

And I KNOW they're being manipulated. The reason is VERY simple.

1) Everyone who voted Gore in 2000 are voting Kerry in 2004.
2) Many 2000 Nader voters who realize the error of their ways are voting Kerry in 2004.
3) Many Reagan Democrats are switching back to voting Democrats in 2004 due to Bush's idiocy, ineptitude and lies.
4) Many conservative anti-internationalist voters are switching from voting for Bush to voting for Nader because they can't bring themselves to vote for either major category.
5) Veterans who went for Bush in 2000 will be switching to Kerry in 2004 because Bush is closing their hospitals, cutting combat pay and generally treating veterans current and future like dirt.

Bush is losing votes in EVERY category. Shit, he didn't even have a PLURALITY of votes in 2000. His victory margin was far to slim in MANY states and he is being assailed their in 2004.

My explanation is that polls pursue a certain statistical model to determine outcomes. They intentionally ignore certain demographics that are unreachable by their methodologies. These are "hidden" Kerry votes that aren't easily quantified. These are those cracks that Zogby reaches into to make his predictions.

Zogby is a good "predictor" but he doesn't use a scientific method. On one hand, I discount his poll because he works his special magic. On the other, I am pleased to such a good predictor swinging in Kerry's favor.

The election will be one or lost based on Democrats ability to get their overwhelming majority out to the polls. And furthermore, to make sure those votes are COUNTED!!!!!

[Doosh]

5. things are beginning to settle though

you could see it in Zogby's #'s, Newsweek, Rasmussen, and electoral-vote.com Kerry is beginning to roar back though you wouldn't know it by watching to media. Fact is, he was never that far behind anyway. Yet you STILL have Tweety Bird shoveling dirt on his campaign. It's sickening.

[lanparty]

6. Suburban voters are the key ...

Yep, those middle upper class surburban voters COULD decide things. And guess who is presiding on the biggest hemmoraging of white collar jobs in history to overseas ... GW Bush. Bush's own labor secretary says that computer workers losing their jobs should "stop wining" about it.

White collar workers are starting to realize that most of their jobs are just as vulnerable as blue collar workers in the "global economy". In fact, their higher wages make them even MORE vulnerable since there is an even greater economic incentive to offshore that work.

Surburban voters must be made to feal that their jobs are in jeapordy (which they are) by outsourcing to overseas and the import of H-1B/LZ-1 workers.

[crickets]

10. I think you make a solid point here

and it will tell in the end. Bush has managed to alienate almost everyone except the media shills and the koolaid drinkers who listen to them and believe every word they say. And the true number of never-to-be-swayed koolaid drinkers is smaller than they would have us believe. They're loud, but they are outnumbered, and I think they know it. This is why they're getting ever more shrill with the illogic. The hyperbole falls away when people look at their paycheck, or lack of one, side by side with the stack of monthly bills.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

11. let's hope they wake up. eom

[robbedvoter]

7. Awww! S'OK, NYC will pull for W - nooooot!

[Mr Blond]

8. THIS is why we stay positive!!

Zogby is a good man with outstanding polling results. This is great news for us. If Senator Kerry is doing this well with rural voters, we're KILLING them with urban voters!!

[cthrumatrix]

9. kick

[lancdem]

12. And this is Bush's post-RNC peak

His numbers will only get worse.