Salon: Why Dean needs to win big now...

[onehandle]

If the former Vermont governor doesn't overwhelm his opponents in Iowa and New Hampshire, some analysts say, he may face a long, draining campaign fight.

Jan. 8, 2004  |  With the first contest of the Democratic primary season just 10 days away, Howard Dean is in a commanding position. He appears to be the front-runner in Iowa, though perhaps by a narrow margin, and he's all but certain to win the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 27. He's raised the most money, has the most volunteers and has won a string of big-name and big-union endorsements.

But concealed in this optimistic picture is a doomsday scenario that is shaping every serious Democratic campaign: If Dean does not win the January contests with a show of force, by convincing margins, then even a victory could count as a loss.

According to variants of this scenario, the former Vermont governor would go into the Feb. 3 contests weakened, having failed to live up to high expectations. He would be running then in states like South Carolina, Oklahoma and Arizona where conservative Democrats, buoyed by new hope of success, may fare better. Facing tougher competition, he would have to spend more. The Democratic Party, meanwhile, would remain at war with itself.

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2004/01/08/iowa/index.html

[David Dunham]

1. Dean Will Only Win IA and NH Narrowly

Dean will not win IA and NH "big." Only narrow victories, at best. The undecideds are not by and large going for Dean in those states. Watch for Clark or Edwards to be the ultimate nominee.

[Democrats unite]

2. Welcome to DU...

Also I concur with you.

[David Dunham]

3. Thanks for the Welcome

Thanks for the welcome. My bet is that Clark is the nominee and beats Bush.

[jsw_81]

4. Not going to happen

Dean will win IA by around five points, NH by around twenty, and go on to win the nomination by a huge margin. By the time we get to Boston it will be nearly unanimous for Dean.

Watch for Clark to be Secretary of Defense. Edwards will be AG.

[deminflorida]

6. Your forgetting California and Florida....

They both fall into Clark's ball park. Super Tuesday will spell defeat for Dean.

I only hope that he and Clark can come to terms with Dean going onto the ticket as V.P. He would do well advising Clark on deficit reduction, and learn allot himself about relating to the common man.

Dean is not as old as Clark, and in eight years he would sew up sixteen years of Democrats living in the White House. Freeing our Nation from the ultra conservative nightmare that we face if we lose this current election.

It's quiet possible because if Clark does win, and I think he will...
good Generals rarely go into battle with their forces divided.

[Melinda]

8. Newp, we in California will not go Clark over Dean, sorry.

[jsw_81]

9. What evidence do you have to support your claims?

The latest polling data that I've seen shows Dean winning in IA, NH, as well as "conservative" states like AZ, NM, and OK that are supposedly strongholds for Clark.

[creativelcro]

12. agree with that assessment

I think Dean will win NH with 19 points. IA by 7 points.

[poskonig]

5. We need just to win period.

A Gephardt win in Iowa would be a kick in the nuts. I am not as worried about NH.

[Lobo_13]

7. Dean doesn't NEED to win IA

Gephardt has an incredible union base that can turn out caucus goers. But he has to blow Dean out of the water in IA to have any affect outside of maybe a five point drop in NH. Still not enough to let someone overtake him.

Dean just has to stay close to Gep.

[adamrsilva]

10. I don't think I agree

Dean is leading in those so-called conservative states like AZ, NM, OK... If he wins in Iowa and NH, no matter by what margin, it's like he will have the momentum to maintain those leads and take Delaware from Lieberman. And if someone else doesn't win SC, it's over.

[dolstein]

11. The real nightmare scenario for Dean

would be if the race is effectively narrowed down to two candidates by February 3. I could see this happening if Dean narrowly defeats Gephardt (effectively ending Gephardt's candidacy) and Clark finishes a surprisingly strong second in New Hampshire, with candidates Kerry, Edwards and Lieberman finishing way off the pace.

[priller]

13. Seeing the Dean has proven his critics wrong time and again

I don't see much reason to believe this "doomsday scenario" will come about either.