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Kerry explains the difference between the impact of tax cuts and job-creating stimulus

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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-08-09 08:07 PM
Original message
Kerry explains the difference between the impact of tax cuts and job-creating stimulus
Edited on Sun Feb-08-09 08:22 PM by ProSense
Incidentally, let me share with a few of my colleagues why this is sort of this old ideology versus new. The Senator talked about the tired ideology of the past. What is it? Well, I think today Michael Steele, the new chairman of the Republican National Committee, made a statement on behalf of the Republican Party. He said:

For the last 2 weeks, we have been trying to force a massive spending bill through Congress under the guise of economic relief.

Well, we are having votes. This is a democracy. We are not forcing anything. We are trying to get the job done because there is an urgency to getting it done.

But then he says:


The fastest way to help those families is by letting them keep more of the money they earn. Individual empowerment, that is how you stimulate the economy.

That is a big ideological/philosophical difference about how you most rapidly stimulate the economy. Let's think about it for a minute, the individual empowerment. OK, we turn around and we give every family in America the great big tax cut that the Republicans are talking about. Here is what he says: We want to give--the first 16,000 bucks you make, you are going to be taxed at a lower percentage.

Terrific. We lose revenue at the Federal level that we could put into schools, fire, police, education, energy investment, investment in airports, rail, all of those things for which we do not have enough money. But we give it back to the people.

Then he says: They will go out and buy things. They probably will. Some of them may save it. What are they going to buy? Is there a guarantee they are going to go out and buy energy-efficient materials? No. Is there a guarantee they will go out and buy an American car that is a hybrid, that actually does better? No.

They could go out and buy a car made in China or Japan or Germany. That does not help us a lot. Or what if they pay off their credit card bill because it is so big that they need the money to pay the bill? That is just paying for past things already purchased, for services already given. It does not stimulate the economy. Please. And if they do have some money to invest, there is no guarantee they will choose to invest it in the United States of America. They might think it is much better to invest it in some international mutual fund that is investing in a country that has a better economy right now.

So that is a tired old philosophy. That is what we did in the 1980s and many of us opposed it. I voted against that tax cut. You know what. We took the deficit of this country to an unprecedented level, crowding out the private marketplace in terms of borrowing, and we did not invest in the things in which we needed to invest in the country.

Let me share and say to my colleagues that we have a multi-headed crisis we are looking at. This is only one part of the package. I also want to address the question where the Senator from Arizona said this would be a recession way down the road. Well, I disagree with that. We are in a recession now. We have to do everything possible to break out of the reversion.

Now, the Congressional Budget Office has concluded that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act would ``have an immediate and substantial impact on the U.S. economy, most noticeably in terms of job growth and GDP growth.'' That is the Congressional Budget Office. They say: In our efforts in this bill, our No. 1 priority is to put people back to work. If tomorrow we spend money on a road construction effort so people who go to work at that site will have a job, the people who drive the truck to bring the asphalt and the materials will have a job, the people who supply the materials to those people will suddenly be ordering again. They will pay taxes. They will take home a paycheck over the next year or two and that will begin to change the psychology of what we are looking at here.

You have to spend some money. That is what Franklin Roosevelt did. This situation cries out for it just as powerfully as that did. The CBO report says the recovery package, as reported out of the Senate--I emphasize the Senate, the Senate Appropriations and Finance Committee--would create between 900,000 and 2.4 million new jobs in 2009, this year; between 1.3 and 3.9 million jobs next year; and between 600,000 and 1.9 million jobs in 2011.

These jobs would correspond to an unemployment rate reduction of .5 percent to 1.3 percent in 2009; .6 to 2 percent in 2010; and .3 percent to 1.0 percent in 2011.


Video and text





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firedupdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-08-09 08:13 PM
Response to Original message
1. Go John Kerry! He's one of the few that clearly articulates how
desperately we need this bill to pass. He also does a good job of smacking down the false arguments the rethugs so desperately try to sell everyday. I love the part about McCain stating we will be in a recession soon when we are clearly already in the midst of one. Good Job!
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karynnj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-08-09 08:49 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. That was a fantastic rebuttal - it really did hit a large number of the
Edited on Sun Feb-08-09 09:18 PM by karynnj
Republican talking points. The Senator from Arizona was actually the one who is smarter on economics, Kyl, who is on the Finance committee. (Kyl's comment on why spending would CAUSE a recession was a total distortion of the Congressional Budget report and hurts my head trying to understand why he would say that.

Here is a link to yesterday's Senate hearing - you could (if you want to torture yourself) watch Kyl - or you could watch Kerry and Boxer, who were very good. You can even watch Kyl avoid debating Kerry - after he gave his response - saying others needed to speak.

http://www.c-spanarchives.org/congress/?q=node/69850&date=2009-2-7
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firedupdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-08-09 08:54 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. oh wow..thanks karynnj...
whenever I hear Arizona, I immediately think of McCain...oops!

I think you forgot to add the link!
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karynnj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-08-09 09:20 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. Thanks - here is the link (that was embarrassing - especially as I did search to get it )
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Clio the Leo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-08-09 08:19 PM
Response to Original message
2. And someone pointed out that money "given" to the average joe....
in the form of a tax cut .... average joe tends to SAVE it because of the fear that things may get worse. That's what I would do.

And I'm lucky enough to have a job that entitles me to a tax cut to begin with.
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bvar22 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-08-09 09:31 PM
Response to Reply #2
7. No he doesn't.
Most of them will pay down some of the balance on their credit cards, and then buy a 6 Pack of Bush Beer with the rest.
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amborin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-08-09 08:58 PM
Response to Original message
5. Paul Krugman explains it here, a bit wonkish, but good:
"Bang for the buck (wonkish)

<snip>

"....Consider an increase in government spending; assume that the interest rate is fixed (a good assumption right now, because interest rates are up against the zero lower bound). Then textbook analysis says that if the stimulus is dG, the increase in GDP is 1/(1 - c(1-t)) where c is the marginal propensity to consume out of income and t is the marginal tax rate. Suppose c is 0.5 and t is 1/3; then the multiplier is 1.5, which is more or less the conventional wisdom right now.

But if $100 billion in spending raises GDP by $150 billion, and the marginal tax rate is 1/3, $50 billion of the spending comes back in additional revenue. So bang for the buck — increase in GDP per dollar of added debt — is 3, not 1.5. Since the main concern about stimulus is that it will add to government debt, it’s this bang for the buck measure, rather than the multiplier, that’s relevant. And 3 sounds a lot better than 1.5.

Take this a bit further: $150 billion is about 1 percent of GDP, which Romer and Bernstein say means a million jobs; so this says $50,000 per job, which is a much better number than the critics have been throwing around (plus many more workers with full-time rather than part-time jobs).

Bang for the buck also heightens the contrast between effective and ineffective stimulus policies. Stay with c = 0.5, t = 1/3, and look at the effects of a tax cut; the multiplier is 0.75, half that for public investment, but bang for the buck is 1, only 1/3 that for investment.

So thinking about how stimulus comes back via revenues is important...."

<http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/page/5/>
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inna Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-08-09 09:43 PM
Response to Reply #5
8. thanks for a great link! i LOVE "wonkish", LOL! nt
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