Dodd looks vulnerable in 2010, based on new poll

[jefferson_dem]

February 10, 2009 - Connecticut's Rell Is Queen Of The Hill At Midterm, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Dodd Has Worst Approval Ever

Halfway through her first elected term as Connecticut Governor and one week after a grim budget message, Jodi Rell has a 75 - 19 percent approval rating and tops any likely Democratic challenger by 21 to 40 points, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Connecticut voters split 41 - 42 percent on whether they think Sen. Christopher Dodd is honest and trustworthy and disapprove 48 - 41 percent of the job he is doing, his first negative approval rating in a poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Even Democrats approve of their Republican Governor 67 - 26 percent, while Republicans approve 85 - 11 percent and independent voters approve 75 - 18 percent.

<SNIP>

A total of 42 percent of voters say they "definitely" or "probably" will vote to reelect Sen. Dodd in 2010, while 51 percent say the "probably won't" or "definitely won't" vote for him.


By a 54 - 24 percent margin, Connecticut voters say they are not satisfied with Sen. Dodd's explanation of allegations that he received preferential mortgage treatment and 56 percent of voters say they are less likely to vote for him because of this controversy.


"Sen. Dodd is vulnerable. His approval has sunk to a new low. More voters disapprove than approve of the job he is doing for the first time in 15 years of polling," Schwartz said. "The mortgage controversy has taken a toll on his approval rating. Most voters are not satisfied with Dodd's explanation and say they are less likely to vote for him next year because of it."

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1259

[marmar]

1. I won't pretend to try and understand Connecticut voters.....

..... they lost me at Lieberman.

[Jennicut]

6. Please don't lump us all together.

Loserman is unpopular right now as well. If Blumenthal (the CT AG) runs against him he may lose according to a different Quinnie poll. Jodi Rell is very, very moderate and while I would like a Dem as governor I don't dissaprove of the way she is doing. She would not get elected as a Repub in many other parts of the country. She is a New England Repub and took over for Roland, who went to jail for kickbacks. As for Dodd, the allegations about the Countrywide loan really hurt him. It might be time for him to retire. I would love to see Chris Murphy, my congressman for our district, run for Senate if Dodd steps aside. He is young (35) and very in touch with the voters.

[karynnj]

8. Thanks for the local insight

If you assume that no one runs against him or no one beats him in a primary, would Rell consider running against him or is there another Republican strong enough to beat him. These numbers do look weak - but head to head polls against potential primary opponents might not look as bad.

Though I may be drawing too much inference from two data points, you might want to consider two data points. In 2007, there were some polls where John Kerry was slightly below 50, but still net positive. In 2008, Lautenberg had numbers worse than Dodd. In Kerry's case, simultaneous polls showed that he beat the strongest Democratic Representatives by over 20 points and beat generic Republican by more. In the actual election he got 69% of the votes in the primary which was open to independents (and where there was no Republican race)and 67% of the general election vote. Lautenberg very easily beat Andrews, who the party had clearly been grooming as a future star but did not back in this challenge and then easily beat a conservative Republican, Zimmer.

Dodd's case is closer to Lautenberg's - though age not possible corruption was his draw back, but the discrepancy between the very lopsided Kerry victories and the concurrent with the approval polls head to head results and the polls suggest that at this point - the approval/disapproval can be a way to indicate some unhappiness even when given the choice they still very much want to keep the guy. (The concurrent head to head is the key here - those results were against really good people - the even more lopsided 38 point win in the primary was against someone weaker.)

[Jennicut]

10. Rell is 62 so I am not sure she would run for a Senate seat. Maybe.

Not many good Rethug candidates right now. Voters might be angry at Dodd but still vote him in at the end of the day. As we learned from Loserman, its hard to unseat the big name.

[karynnj]

14. With Lieberman, though there were extraodinary circumstances

Unless the CT Republican party is really down to nothing, the Republican could not have been the strongest candidaet they had. Had the Republicans had a decent candidate, he might have retained enough Republican votes so Lieberman would have been defeated.

But, I agree with your conclusion - that was the case with Lautenberg, who I really like but who will turn 90 this term.

[high density]

2. So the Connecticut people were happy to support Joe "Iraq War" LIEberman

But they won't vote for Dodd because of allegations about getting a decent mortgage deal?

Yeah, right...

[Jennicut]

7. Hey, I voted for Lamont. But Dodd has problems here, no doubt.

As does Loserman. We shall see.

[karynnj]

16. I don't think they will - but the dynamics are very different

Lieberman DID lose the primary, but he was elected because he had a lot of the Republican votes. I haven't seen a post that any specific person intends to run against Dodd in the primary - though there is already some movement from someone for running against Lieberman.

In the general election, the Republicans supported Lieberman as well as some of the Democrats. I don't know if Dodd would get the same level of support from the Republicans that Lieberman did. (Could they have found a worse candidate?)

[Beacool]

3. I almost posted this yesterday.

I'm surprised that Dodd appears to be vulnerable. Though I think that it's way too soon to prognosticate what will happen in 2010. It will all depend on many factors, particularly the state of the economy.

[TTUBatfan2008]

4. It's the right wing attacks on him regarding the housing crisis...

They have pinned the blame on him and Barney Frank for this mess.

[Beacool]

12. Yeah, that must be it.

I assumed that he was popular in CT since he's been reelected several times already. It will probably blow over by next year.

;-)

[TTUBatfan2008]

15. I don't know...

During the general election campaign they were running ads across the country (including here in Texas) that specifically talked about "Chris Dodd's sweetheart deal with Countrywide" and how he supposedly helped de-regulate the industry. With no one to really refute those kinds of attacks, it's impossible for him to overcome them on his own. The right wingers were using those, incidentally, to try to pin this whole thing on Obama. "His friends in Congress..." blah blah blah. You know how they are with the guilt by association meme. Anyway, Dodd did not have Presidential campaign level funds to fight the attacks. And for the most part people aren't stupid enough to think a guy who was only in Congress for 2 years is somehow responsible for a crisis that's been building up over decades, so Obama didn't need to spend any money fighting those kind of attacks. But when you have been in Congress as long as Dodd and you're on the banking committee, these kind of nasty attacks tend to stick.

[biopowertoday]

5. Here is a letter to the editor from Hardford, CT:

I did a search --lots of articles written about this issue. I think people are just not in the mood for Senators getting sweetheart deals.


http://www.courant.com/news/opinion/editorials/hc-digbrflets0211.art2feb11,0,4284250.story

Resigning Would Be Honorable

February 11, 2009

Sen. Christopher Dodd has used campaign contributions for the personal matter of preparing a defense for his sweetheart mortgage deals from discredited mortgage purveyor Countrywide . In an honorable world, such a disclosure should result in the senator quietly resigning.

But then, in an honorable world, shouldn't a citizen be entitled to expect that a sitting secretary of the treasury (Timothy Geithner) has more integrity than a former Senate majority leader turned influence peddler (Tom Daschle)? Geithner should do the right thing: resign.

But Dodd, as quoted in the Washington Times, lauded Geithner, insisting that "this is one of the most talented people I have ever met in the area of financial services." Dodd added: "Rather than decrying or lambasting this nominee, we ought to be thanking him." For what, successfully avoiding taxes for years?

When can we expect The Courant to quote tax-avoider Geithner in support of our senior senator regarding his financial manipulations?......................

[Thrill]

9. I think he is safe. But some of his dealings with Countrywide are troubling

[uponit7771]

13. Why is that? My understanding is he didnt expressly ask for the interest rate they gave him

[Ex Lurker]

20. he's a smart guy

nobody gives you a sweet deal out of the goodness of their heart. This is like Daschle claiming he thought the car and driver were the "gift of a friend."

[camera obscura]

11. He needs to be doing some serious image rehabilitation.

But I wonder if the Republicans could find a candidate to run against him that could win. Obviously Rell will be running for re election.

[4lbs]

17. If that poll is released today, then it probably was taken before this stimulus bill hit the Senate.

People would have been seeing Dodd verbally chastizing Repukes. That should improve his image some.

[HOLOS]

18. Dodd and Lieberman both are very vulnerable say polls

[WI_DEM]

19. Dodd may be our most endangered Dem in '10--Rell is very popular