Three Top Economists Agree 2009 Worst Financial Crisis Since Great Depression;
Risks Increase if Right Steps are Not Taken
RGE Monitor
February 15, 2009
Three of the country’s most respected economists warned of a deepening economic crisis if the banking system is not quickly fixed in a wide-ranging conversation last night with Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) Chairman Daniel Yergin and an audience of nearly 1,000 people who filled the Westin Galleria ballroom at CERAWeek 2009.
Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics and international business at New York University, Kenneth Rogoff, professor of economics and public policy at Harvard University, and Nariman Behravesh, chief economist and executive vice president for IHS Global Insight, all agreed that this is the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
Rogoff, formerly chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), described the current recession as “a once in a 50-year event.” He said that “2009 basically is a write-off” but added, “I’m ‘constructive’ about 2010 in that we’ll have tepid growth in the world economy. It’s unusual for a recession to last more than two years. However, it will be very slow coming out of it. The big growth will be in some of the emerging markets. It’s the developed countries where the biggest hurt is occurring.”
Rogoff argued that the $790 billion stimulus bill agreed to this week is only part of the answer. “It’s like giving a blood transfusion while the patient is still bleeding,” he said. “If we’re not going to fix the banking system at the same time, then it’s just a temporary boost in the economy. We have simply not taken the proper decisive action with the banks.”
Roubini, also chairman of RGE Monitor, said: “Even if we have positive growth next year, say one percent, it’s going to feel like a recession even if we’re out of it. If we don’t get the monetary part right, the fiscal policy right, if we don’t fix the banking system the right way, if we don’t deal with the debt burden of the household sector I see a one-third possibility of (an extended) L-shaped Japanese stagnation.”
http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/255564/top_economists_agree_2009_worst_financial_crisis_since_great_depression