FL-Sen: Quinnipiac Runs Some Tests

[ccharles000]

Quinnipiac University tested several different segments and scenarios in FL-Sen. Here they are (2/11-16, registered voters, 1/21 in parens):
Dem primary:


Pam Iorio: 16
Kendrick Meek: 16
Ron Klein: 14
Dan Gelber: 5
Other: 2
Wouldn't Vote: 4
Undecided: 43
(MoE: ±5.1%)
GOP primary without Crist:


Connie Mack: 34
Vern Buchanan: 11
Marco Rubio: 6
Allan Bense: 4
Other: 2
Wouldn't Vote: 5
Undecided: 38
(MoE: ±4.7)
GOP primary with Crist:


Charlie Crist: 53
Connie Mack: 13
Vern Buchanan: 5
Marco Rubio: 3
Allan Bense: 2
Other: 2
Wouldn't Vote: 1
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±4.7)
Crist vs. generic D:


Democrat: 25 (27)
Charlie Crist (R): 48 (47)
Undecided: 27 (27)
(MoE: ±3.1)
Since you probably want a scorecard:


State Sen. Dan Gelber (Miami area)
Mayor Pam Iorio (Tampa)
Rep. Ron Klein (FL-22)
Rep. Kendrick Meek (FL-17)
Former state House Speaker Allan Bense (Panama City area)
Rep. Vern Buchanan (FL-13)
Rep. Connie Mack IV (FL-14)
Former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (Miami area)

And of course, Gov. Charlie Crist needs no introduction. The only people on this list who have actually announced, though, are Meek and Gelber - the field is very much in flux. (North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns has also jumped in on the Dem side, but he wasn't tested.) Anyhow, I only have two quick comments:

1) Yes, I realize that Connie Mack (aka Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV) is fortunate, politically speaking, to share the exact same name as his famous father, who was a US Senator until 2001. But wasn't it a bit much for Quinnipiac to prod respondents by wording their question like so: "Is your opinion of Congressman Connie Mack IV, son of former United States Senator Connie Mack, favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?" I think that partly explains his unusually high numbers.

2) Crist looks like he's riding tall right now in the Republican primary, but a colleague of mine well-versed in Florida politics has me convinced that Crist's apostasy will guarantee him a fierce challenge from the right. His cheerleading for the stimulus - which the GOP standard-bearers have insanely decided to turn into the ultimate conservative litmus test - is just Exhibit A on his list of sins. We'll see if the wingnuts can really make him feel pain, or if they'll just have to suck it up and (gasp!) support someone electable. Obviously, we're rooting for option one.


www.swingstateproject.com

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. Charlie Crist Is The Prohibitive Favorite To Win Bob Martinez's Seat If He Wants It

~

[ddeclue]

2. Here's what will be funny:

Charlie Crist decides to run but gets challenged as a Republican so he switches to Democrat and is unbeatable...

bwa ha ha...

He's gonna be hard to beat in 2010 regardless of what he's running for.


Doug D.

[Thrill]

3. I don't live in FL. But I've yet to see any Democrat come forward that looks like

they could beat Crist? Why didn't Meeks run for Governor?