Is Howard in trouble? It's an honest question.

[Merlin]

I have been a Dean supporter and contributor from the start. When he first came forth, his courage and outspokenness were like salve on my very distressed psyche, suffering under the onus of the Bush calumny. Howard has many terrific qualities, including an ability to think on his feet that hasn't been matched since JFK.

But lately he's suffered a series of real gaffes. Also the media has been playing up a misperception of him as "angry" and a hip-shooter. In addition, Clark seems to be coming on fiercely, with well crafted position papers and an enormously improved, even dynamic, speaking style.

Could Howard be slipping away? He hasn't--after all--responded to the call for evidence of a strong national security committment, much to my astonishment. In all past challenges, he's come through. But the onus is clearly on him to prove he's comfortable with and competent at making critical national security decisions.

He's come kicking and screaming and late to the middle class tax discussion. Why?

These past few weeks he's been hammered by the other candidates. He seems to have been knocked for a loop by it.

If he allows Clark to get even with him, he's in serious trouble, imo. Once Clark passes him, he'll be hard to dislodge as the front runner.

It may be, in retrospect, that Howard Dean was the grain of sand that irritates the oyster and causes it to produce a pearl. I'd like to be persuaded otherwise. Howard, speak to us!

[BobbyJay]

1. In short, yes.

www.clark04.com

HELP, IS ON THE WAY

[Capn Sunshine]

10. ooooooh...Stars...uniform......

I don't think he can wear that anymore Bobby. Find a new pic. Maybe the pres on a carrier?

[JVS]

15. But without the uniform he has no superpowers!

[Name removed]

16. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[HFishbine]

28. "Don't make me push this button." (nt)

[depakid]

39. Actually it's kind of a spooky picture

It looks like he's wired on something. Just my opinion, but you really should replace it- ;)

[BobbyJay]

41. No thanks.

I'm more concerned with replacing Bush.



www.clark04.com

NEW AMERICAN LEADERSHIP

[stopbush]

56. Not awesome to those of us with a healthy distrust of the

military and military careerists. Can you say "Northwoods" or "Gulf of Tonkin?"

Such distrust afflicts many of us who lived through the sixties and went through the draft lottery for Nam.

Getting over the flags, shiny lights and buttons can be the first step to true enlightenment. Believe me, I know - that's about all we've got here in Vegas.

[ClarkGraham2004]

63. You love being out of the mainstream, huh?

[Printer70]

68. Mainstream = status quo

God forbid we might want to change the status quo. The mainstream is defined by the status quo. I don't want to be the Centrist party, I'm proud that we're the Democratic party and stand for something. Sacrificing our principles at the altar of supporting the status quo is not something I'm willing to do, or think we as a party ought to do. Clark is a militarist, just like what we have now.

[Printer70]

65. "New American Leadership" = same old rt-wing agenda

Wes Clark is a right winger in rehab who supported the Iraq war and finds himself in the Democratic party as a matter of political convenience. Why we are taking this man seriously as the nominee of the Democratic party I'll never figure out. We knock the DLC but they obviously know how to play the game.

[Hoppin_Mad]

20. LOL - Touche ! -eom-

[cthrumatrix]

21. yes...the madonna email has caught everyone by surprise....

[DinahMoeHum]

2. We're not gonna know until after Iowa and New Hampshire. . .

Patience, patience.


:kick:

[Padraig18]

3. Nope.

Howard's just fine--- money in the bank, leading in both IA and NH, doing VERY well elsewhere. :)

[Atlant]

4. Only in DU GD2004.

Everywhere else, he's doing fine.

Atlant

[Padraig18]

5. LOL!

Thanks for giving some folks a reminder that DU is NOT the real world. :thumbsup:

[Hoppin_Mad]

23. Huh ? I thought this was blog.newDUers4clark.com ! :-) -eom-

[dogman]

6. Yes. It's an honest answer.

Unfortunately, unless his handlers ok it first, he can't give you one.

[Lefty48197]

26. Brutal Dogman

brutal!

[MIMStigator]

7. Ball gagged and dropping in polls but otherwise donig good

eom

[Padraig18]

9. You wish.

:)

[NewYorkerfromMass]

8. I think the Job/New Testament slip up was pretty bad

in one breath he claims to be well-versed in the Bible, and in the next seems to think Job is New Testament.
Really bad. No wonder they finally decided to put the brakes on his mouth.

BTW- Nick Kristoff thought so too:

"Meanwhile, Howard Dean is grasping for faith in a way that is just as tasteless as Mr. Cheney's Christmas card. Dr. Dean bragged to reporters that he knows much about the Bible — and proceeded to say that his favorite New Testament book is Job. Anyone who cites Job as a New Testament book should be scolded not just for religious phoniness but also for appalling ignorance of Western civilization — on a par with Mr. Bush's calling Greeks "Grecians."

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/07/opinion/07KRIS.html?pagewanted=print&position=

[Capn Sunshine]

13. Yes, the "I memorized the bible" vote is in jeopardy

[NewYorkerfromMass]

19. It's basic stuff. No intensive memorizing needed

There are only a handful of NT books NOT by the apostles, and Job sure ain't one of them.
It takes only a cursory knowledge of the bible to know this, and Dean had claimed to have more than a cursory knowledge.
As a lapsed Catholic, personally this would have been the last straw were I not already unhappy with Dean.

I honestly think Dean is going down- the weight of the gaffes will eventually be too great.

[Mass_Liberal]

54. NewYorkefromMass

two things. First, I'm a new yorker from Mass. too. Thats awesome. We're two ofa kind, eh? Second, did the weight of Bush's gaffes bring him down? No. And he is a total idiot. And whatever you think about Howard, you will have to agree with me that he isn't stupid.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

69. I've been to mass too

the Catholic kind.
...and I actually think Howard is dopey and perhaps a bit phony on some things. He certainly has a massive ego, as witnessed by his reluctance to admit when he's wrong.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

84. Kinda like Iraq.

[lancdem]

24. But when you're the front-runner your mistakes get magnified

and that's what's happening. If someone else were ahead, the situation would be the same.

[KittyWampus]

66. No, The "I Hate Arrogant, Pandering Politicans" Vote Is In Jeopardy

I'd say that's a pretty huge block of voters.

[dajabr]

11. If Clark is the pearl...

Get ready for 4 more years of Bush.

[Capn Sunshine]

67. If Clark is the pearl, who's the swine we cast him before?

to carry this to the extreme, which is my calling on DU

[LuminousX]

12. No.

He is in the same boat he was in a year ago, paddling hard upstream.

[Jack_Dawson]

14. Yes

He's committing the unforgivable democratic sin of appealing to the middle.

[Demobrat]

17. Not in Iowa.

http://www.stormlake.com/editorial.htm

Our heart is with Dick Gephardt, but our head is turning toward Howard Dean. Gephardt is a working-class son of the Midwest who shares our political values. Dean is showing that he can connect with people, organize them, turn them out and raise money from them.

snip

We have never seen that many people gathered for a Democrat or Republican in Buena Vista County. Supporters were there from Schaller, Sioux City, Sac City and Rolfe. Republicans walked up to Dean and told him they support him.


Two things are happening:
•†Dean’s campaign against the establishment has tapped an energy among people who are fed up with Washington. His stand against the war in Iraq is not so much about the geopolitics as it is about the obfuscations that were offered as justification for starting the war.
•†Dean has been able to organize that energy into a campaign that can turn people out like no other in the field.

[bearfartinthewoods]

42. i've asked this a few times with no luck

i'd like to know how dean is the solution to being fed up with washington.

just what is it that you think he can/will do to change a pubbie congress? sometimes i think the real cognitive dissonance is a reaction to the fact that we are not currently in control. it seems
people think that all that will change if dean or clark hit town with their big mouths and bigger egos.

it isn't going to be like that.

[Demobrat]

47. Well, for one

once the primaries are over he will turn his army's attention to congressional races where Dems need to win. Our contributions will then go to those people. Should help.

[bearfartinthewoods]

50. and in the two year interim? what happens?

[Mass_Liberal]

55. bear

on the topic of your sig line, are you saying we should nominate Lieberman?

[ArkDem]

18. Not a chance.

He isn't going to lose to ANY republican!

[pacifictiger]

36. I would be happy with Dean or Clark

as president, and the rest of the candidates put into influential administration positions. If they could come together as a team, no doubt Bush & cronies would be shown the door.
Here's my list
Dean - President
Clark - VP or Sec of Defense
Edwards - VP or ?
Gephardt - Sec of State or ?
Kerry - Sec of Defense
Kucinch - Sec of the Interior/Ag/EPA
Not sure where Lieberman & Braun would best fit but Sharpton would be great as Secretary of Humor

[mrgorth]

22. If he is

than the other candidates wish they were in that much trouble. He just got an endorsement from Bradley who went toe to toe with Gore in 2000. He's raising money nicely and is going to kick ass in Iowa. Clark is doing good too and picking up in NH but it's not hurting Dean as bad as you think. Dean is just fine, gaffes and all.

[Kahuna]

62. And the Bradley endorsement did what for him?

:shrug:

[zulchzulu]

79. Bradley endorsement proved that Dean attracts presidential candidate loser

[Albert Einstein]

25. His tax plan will sink him with the middle class

He's got to continue the middle class tax breaks. $200,000 should be the cut-off. He's flip-flopped on everything else. How about if he flip-flops in a good way?

[Demobrat]

27. He hasn't come out with his tax fairness plan yet.

And won't until after the SOTU, so how do you know that? Have you read it?

[blm]

45. You mean he disingenuously attacked the others who kept the middle class

taxcuts?

Gee...and that was such an inportant reason he called the others Bushlite. What a jerk. He'll say anything and do anything. He's an "angler" and many people recognize that and DON'T like it.

[jmaier]

29. Dean's position looks pretty good

to me. Leading in polls and recognition; leading in dollars. I agree the race is tightening but that's to be expected. Gov Dean grabbed an early lead among those paying attention earliest and now the rest of the democratic voters are weighing in with their opinions. And, of course, he has to run the front-runners gauntlet. But, I suspect that any of the other candidates would happily trade places with the Gov.




Wes Clark. He will make an extraordinary American President.

[Padraig18]

33. You are correct, as usual.

I think any candidate would trade a non-essential body part to switch positions with Howard right now. :P

[BeyondGeography]

30. Unseal the papers, Howard

Besides all the other well-chronicled slip-ups, Dean refuses to open up the public record. You've got the power, but don't ask too many questions. Right.

This issue is hurting him.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/07/opinion/07WED2.html

[Mass_Liberal]

57. where are you coming up with this stuff?

I don't want to sound biased because I am in the Dean camp. But where the hell are you guys coming up with "dean's gaffes are hurting him badly. He's going down. He's just about finished."


HE IS WINNING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


that by definition means HE IS DOING BETTER THAN EVERYONE ELSE. period. He's ahead in polls, money, volunteers, media coverage. If these things don't count, how is it possible to be winning?

[Larkspur]

31. Clark get even with Dean?

Clark came into the race as the one who was to save the Democratic party back in September. The general rode in on an overinflated media bubble. He was supposed to whip Dean on foreign policy, but the general screwed up his best chance at cracking Dean's core anti-war support when he said that he would have supported IWR if he was a senator.

Dean's core supporters remained firm with their first choice. The former VT governor held and after a few more Clark stumbles rose in the polls, while Clark fumbled, stumbled, got out of Iowa and lost the AFSCME endorsement and started sinking in the polls. Clark's debate performances have been mediocre at best and his campaigning makes a corpse look lively.

Right now, Dean is undergoing continual attacks, most unfair distortions of his record, and the media magnifies these distortions more than Dean's retorts to them. So it's not surprising that Dean's poll numbers, really great in NH, are changing a bit. When Dean returns to NH to campaign, his poll numbers will rise again. They always do when Dean goes back on the offensive. Clark can't compete with a seasoned campaigner, like Dean. Dean has passion and energy. Clark needs an energizer battery.

[FubarFly]

32. Clark is a credible challenger.

But his organization is not nearly as strong as Dean's

In the real world, Dean has the fundraising, union support, volunteers, and endorsements to win the nomination. These are far more important than what the polls show, although he is leading in those as well. The ferocity of the attacks are a by-product of Dean's success. This was nothing unexpected. The water may be getting rough, but Dean is firmly in command of this ship.

[lancdem]

Hey, Merlin (and fellow Lancastrian!)

If you look at that CNN poll and the tracking poll from N.H., Dean isn't losing support so much as Clark is gaining and on the verge of making this a two-man primary race. That was going to happen sooner or later (it may not have necessarily been Clark, but someone would've emerged from the pack.)

[Merlin]

60. Hi Dips! Good analysis.

Found out how to make Lancaster politically palatable. Spend weekends at the shore!

[KoKo]

34. Since Clark hasn't been in the last two debates, that's a hard one to

answer. Perhaps if he had been in the debates he might have made some gaffe that would have turned you back to Dean. Just getting snips of what he says from his campaigners/supporters here make it hard for me to compare him with Dean.

I'm sure if he does well, we will have an opportunity to see more of him. Until then I can't really see why someone who was for Dean would drop him right now. Unless you're voting in New Hampshire. Then it would be an important factor for you.

[Kahuna]

64. Oh. Excuse us if you didn't watch any of the several other..

debates Clark participated in. So sorry. Clark is not competing in IA so there was no necessity for him to debate there.

[KittyWampus]

71. You Must Have Missed The Other 4 Debates Clark Was In Then

or the Town Hall meetings shown on Cspan.

Of course Clark has risen to the #2 spot without the benefit of the fawning, complicit media that Dean has had up til now.

In fact, Clark was ignored by Judy Woodruff and varouis other media outlets... except for when they were prefacing his name with Shelton's smear.

[depakid]

35. Only among a certain segment of people at DU

many of whom have proven that they aren't interested in objectivity or analysis and would drudge up anything, distort any position or engage in any personal attack to try to disparage Howard Dean. Not that you are one of those people, but you are question begging at best when you say things like "he's suffered a series of real gaffes," and being unrealistic if you're relying on media misperceptions to strengthen ANY Democratic candidate.

Believe me, whoever the front runner is- especially if he threatens the corporate media's deregulated dominance, will be the subject of relentless propaganda attacks and that includes General Clark (though I suspect that since he's more corporate friendly, he's getting something of a pass at the moment).

Outside of the little world of DU (and particularly in this forum, where the relentless negativity has turned a lot of longtime posters off) there hasn't been much more than the inevitable movement of undecideds. Dean's base is stronger than it's ever been. Moreover, from my observations it's getting stronger by the week as more people actually get the chance to hear and read his proposals- and as Dean listens to other people's and candidates' proposals. As much as people have harped on Dean for his supposed "middle class tax increase, you'd think that the fact that he may consider modifying his overall plan would draw some approval- the fact that it doesn't demonstrates to me that some people weren't terribly sincere with respect to that criticism in the first place.

[Padraig18]

40. A brutally-honest assessment!

I agree with it. I work with the public and am IN public most of the day, 6 days a week. There is none of the 'negativity' there that there is here about Howard Dean. If anything, his support is growing more and more each day among ordinary people who see a tough, credible challenger to GWB.

[Bread and Circus]

37. One of the most brilliant statements I've read on DU..

"It may be, in retrospect, that Howard Dean was the grain of sand that irritates the oyster and causes it to produce a pearl."

I don't exactly know what you mean and I hope the pearl is
Clark, nonetheless there is just something so poetic about
what you wrote, there has to be truth in it.

[ScreamingMeemie]

38. I don't see so much gaffes as the frontrunners now being separated

from the pack. They are beginning to come under the harsher glare of the spotlight. The harsher glare of the "liberal media". Clark and Dean are going to have more and more eyebrow raising articles written. Their speeches are going to become dissected down to the choice of verb they use. Has Howard Dean changed? Not much. Has Wesley Clark changed? Not much. Has the media coverage of them changed? A ton. Am I going to fall into the VWRC? Not on your life.

:hi: Laura

[John_H]

43. I wouldn't say he's in trouble...

but he can see it from here.

A ten point swing in NH in the last week. If I were a Dean supporter, I'd be especially wooried because it happened during the week when voters traditionally start paying attention. There's just no way to spin it--as folks begin to pay attention Dean is going down and Clark is going up.

Respected Democratic pundits are beginning to unabashedly articulate their opinion that Dean cannot beat Bush in 2004 America. There were five prominent articles in the last week alone.

Dean no longer is looking as rosy in Iowa as he was a couple of weeks ago--when of course everyone was pseculating if he would be unstopable WHEN he won IA and NH.

The GOP has picked up their Clark bashing with renewed vigor (I happened to be in cab while Hannity was on today--really savaging clark. Rush was also according to a thread here. This, as we all know, means instructions from the RNC were issued) The GOP fear that Clark will surge sends a powerful message to Savvy Democratic voters--the kind that turn out for primaries.

The really bad part--his dip and Clark's surge could congeal into a Perfect Storm in the South and on Super Tuesday if there is a big Clark endorsement.

[Rowdyboy]

44. Is Dean in trouble? No, not now...

He's riding high in the polls, has plenty of money and potential for more, and he has a pot full of major endorsements. But so did Ed Muskie in 1972 and Gary Hart in 1988. Being front runner has always been a very dangerous position. Expectations get very high, everyone else gangs up on you and the press watches your every word. After awhile, you have nowhere to go but down.

Will this happen to Dean? Ask me in a few weeks. My gut says its going to be a long, hard two man race that Clark will win, but that's just my opinion.

[absyntheNsugar]

46. I dunno

On one hand Dean seems to be the living embodiment of Nietchze's "That which does not kill me only serves to make me stronger." Any number of gaffes in the past I would have thought would kill him. No dice.

On the other hand, the numbers are slipping a little. Clark's are up and honestly, I think they only candidate (sorry Kerry, Gephardt and Edwards supporters) that can beat Dean is Clark.

But Dean took notes from another famous gaffer - LBJ. LBJ had gaffe after gaffe and kept running. Of course, it helped that he was an insider who happened be owed ALOT of favors after his work on the hill.

So I can't say one way or the other. This entire primary has been so non-traditional I wouldn't be surprised if Kucinich and Braun ended up being the ticket.

[deminflorida]

48. He's done it to himself...that's why his advisers have put a

muzzle on him now. Bush II......in the making.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

49. Trippi's last client, Gerry Brown, enjoyed his day too

but.... all good things must come to an end.

[ryharrin]

51. I don't buy the idea that

these things that have been made a huge deal of are "gaffes." They're statements that when taken out of context and put in another context can be used as (as Dean himselfs said) "gotchas." Things that can look bad to some people, but don't really matter to most.

[Mass_Liberal]

52. no!

just examine the evidence. It's almost impossible to concieve of him doing better. There is no way he could be doing better than he is. Polls? He's #1 in many important place. Money? Making more than anyone except Bush. Volunteers? He has over 500,000 of them. Press? He's got plenty.

[poskonig]

53. Dean is in deep shit!

After he wins IA and NH, and subsequently cleans up Feb 3rd, his campaign will be dead in the water!

[Clark4VotingRights]

58. I can't pretend to be impartial Merlin. Er, note my login name.

But I wasn't born (hatched :)) as a Clark supporter.
I was gradually persuaded by his attributes.

I don't want to beat up on Dean, but there's a reason I don't
support him in the primaries. Lots of reasons. I think
he has too many liabilities, both in terms of holes in his resume,
and his personality. He has a tendency to pop off and say...the
worst possible thing.

I don't think Dean has a winning southern strategy; Clark does.
He can get the African American vote, the white guy southern vote,
the military vote, lots of crossover Republicans.
Clark can raise a ton of money; he's shown that.

Have you seen Dean's flippant responses to questions he dislikes?
Our candidate will get a lot of questions they dislike during the GE.

-On foreign policy experience:

"I need to plug that hole on the resume, and I'm going to do that with my running mate."

-On his sealed records:

"I'll unseal mine if he (Bush) unseals his."

-On getting a medical deferment for a back injury then skiing for a
year:

"I took a physical, I failed a physical. If that makes this an issue, then so be it."

Have you seen Clark's interviews with the standard media whores a few
weeks back: Russert, Mathews,...everyone on Faux News?
He ate them for lunch. They never knew what him 'em.
But he did it with poise and dignity, with a professional presidential demeanor.

Now when they interview him they're downright differential.

Based on what we've seen of Dean's demeanor and Clark's demeanor, picture the GE debates.

Picture a debate between Bush (the rich boy who got out of Vietnam by having his daddy get him a slot in the national guard, then went AWOL...from the friggen national guard!) and Dr. Dean.

Now picture a debate between Bush and General Clark.

[Merlin]

61. Sadly, there's much truth in what you are saying.

The most persuasive thing I've seen about Clark yet was the day he ate the FAUX anchor for lunch. He simply would not permit the tired old warping and dissing those clods do to anybody on the left. It gave me a lot of hope that we'll be in good shape if he's the nominee.

Still, you've gotta love Howard's moxie. Whatever happens, he's a great human being, warts and all.

[Clark4VotingRights]

77. Yeah, I think that Faux episode got a lot of people's attention Merlin.

People are not used to seeing a media whore get what they deserve.
I, for one, was delighted.

And props to Howard's moxie.

[FrenchieCat]

59. Dean's

holes in his resume cannot be plugged in time for the general election. That coupled with the fact that there are 5 Southern Senate democratic seats at play.....are the 2 things that are out of Dean's hands.....and that he cannot fix.

In reference to internet support, please know that Clark's organization and support is getting stronger as we speak. Today again, Clark surpassed Dean's blog for traffic.

Also know that Clark supporters are just as enthused as Dean's...and in fact I would argue want Bush out more than Dean's supporters....Supporters who have switched to Clark from another...or better yet, those who waited to see a winner run....these are the supporters that don't want to take a chance...hence, they are actually higher pitch in their support.

Don't let the propaganda about Dean's support fool you.....it ain't that much more than Clark's. That's why Clark has gone up in the polls...it's been via his supporters. It surely has not been because of media coverage (as he was getting virtually none until this week).....it's been because of word of mouth (not pundit mouth either).........sooooooooo I do believe that the Clark side will win out at the end. Cause people who hate Bush will end up voting with their heads...not with their hearts!

Remember that Dean has the Gore and the Bradley endorsement......any winners in that batch for real?

[Printer70]

70. Clark is a DLC-stooge and it's a matter of time

...before that becomes readily apparent to the Democratic base. Most people I know don't want a Republican in rehab, they want a genuine progressive who has a clear vision for the country.

[BootinUp]

75. recycling is good

guess you missed it when this was aired out 3 months ago.

[Printer70]

80. And it's still relevant today

Repub-in-rehab. Slogans, no vision.

[BootinUp]

85. Judging by recent polls

the voters appear to disagree.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

72. I think he's in trouble. The thing to look at is the momemtum.

Momemtum is what loses or wins a candidate the election. This is the first time that I'm TRUELY beginning to think that Clark is really going to pull this thing off..... He's got huge momemtum - (Clark +10 for Dean -7 in three weeks). That's a LOT of ground. IMO- Dean has topped out and his numbers have gone as high as they can go.

Why? Because Dean has gotten so much media coverage and has a lot of name recognition. Voters have been hearing his name constantly. Clark, on the hand is an unknown quantity. His name recognition is very low. He has nowhere to move but up. In addition, Clark has finally "caught on" to campaigning. He has "grown" a great deal in the last month. People are going "bananas" for him. He is very intelligent, likeable and has charisma. Watch what haw happened in New Hampshire in the past few weeks. Clark has spent the past few weeks there and his numbers have gone up 4 points in just a few days. Deans have gone down 3.

People forget that WE (DUers) are NOT representative of the average voter. The average voter is not as distrustful of the military (or of anyone who has voted Republican either).

When you see the number of people (workers AND voters) "switching over from one candidate to the other" leaving both the Dean camp and the Kerry camp to BOTH go to Clark's it is also telling you something. I predicted several months ago that Dean's supporters would begin leaving his camp once he began to move to the middle and once he began to have to become a "politician" - and this is beginning to happen. To their credit, his workers are going to other Dems instead of the Green Party (or just simply dropping out of the system all-together).

In addition, Dean has now alienated MANY of the players in the Dem Party. He really blew it when he criticized Clinton and criticizing Kennedy was also a BIG mistake. He will NOT get any more important endorsements because of this and because people are beginning to "question" his electability. Clark will start getting more endorsements.

A big problem for Dean is that the gulf between Bush and Dean has gotten so wide. I know there was one poll that showed them closer together BUT that was only one poll. The trend has not been good. This has shaken people up and made them concerned.

In addition, Clark will get most of Kerry's people if Kerry does drop out. Lieberman will have to drop out soon IMO and Clark will get about at least half of his votes (the rest will go to Edwards and Gephardt). I don't see Kerry getting too many.

The biggest nail in the coffin - the media. Dean is no longer the media darling. He is now getting a lot of scrutiny. The media initially loved him because he exceeded their expectations. Now his expectations are sky high and he is not meeting them. Whenever a politician doesn't meet expectations... look out! THAT is what happened to Clark when he first got into the race. Expectations were so high that Clark couldn't have met them. He disappointed the media and they turned on him with a vengeance. Gore didn't do as well as they thought he should do in the debates - they turned on him.

In addition, the other media darlings - Dean's movement and campaign workers are now not looking so darling. In two days - the headlines were about the dirty tricks of the Dean campaign.

When the media turns on you - that is deadly. We saw what they did to Gore in 2000.

[Sensitivity]

73. Got to hold on 2 more weeks.

[BootinUp]

74. Yes -eom-

[Printer70]

81. Listen to your "President"

...and vote Dean.

[xultar]

76. Nah, HD isn't in trouble, votes haven't been counted, It is still early

[zulchzulu]

78. Trippi is trying to shut Dean up or else Howard will self-destruct

Dean is hs own worst enemy. Frankly, he's not ready for primetime in what will be a very intense Presidential campaign. He's a gaffe machine.

If you think about how Quayle was forever branded an idiot because of the potato(e) incident, you can imagine a gaffe that would be much harder to recover from if Dean is in the hot, unfriendly limelight.

[arewethereyet]

82. I don't think you are not supposed to use first names, a respect thing

and, yes, Dr Dean is cooked.

As I've been predicting for months now.

[Maddy McCall]

83. ??