Dean Leads in New Iowa Poll.....

[slinkerwink]

New Iowa Poll
by tk421
Thu Jan 8th, 2004 at 22:35:09 GMT

From Survey USA:

Dean 29%
Gephardt 22%
Kerry 21%
Edwards 17%
Other 8%
Undecided 3%

1/5/04 - 1/7/04 MOE 4%

http://www.dailykos.com

Yay! Go Dean! :bounce:

[slinkerwink]

1. fine, kicking my own thread....

;-)

[chimpymustgo]

25. Is there a link to the actual poll? This is great for Edwards!

I'd like to see all the numbers.

[MIMStigator]

31. Dean DROPPED 13 points in the poll

Survey USA POLLS

Jan 8th

Dean 29%
Gephardt 22%
Kerry 21%

December 8

Dean 42
Gephardt 23
Kerry 15

http://www.surveyusa.com/2003_Elections/IA031211demcaucuses.pdf

[slinkerwink]

44. *cough* I noticed a certain poll was locked because it was a dupe

:yourock:

[bearfartinthewoods]

32. everyone's second choice is THE ONE to unite us

[goobergunch]

40. In sleep? (n/t)

[HFishbine]

35. Chimpy, here's your link to the poll results

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

[BrewCrew]

36. I dont trust it

I don't like their methodology. I think the new KCCI poll might be a better indicator since with that one who know voters talked to actual voters. Plus, the WHO-TV touch-tone poll doesn't even give folks the option to Touch 5 for Kucinich...it just lumps several candidates together as "other".

Check out the KCCI thread! Its going to be interesting!

[HFishbine]

39. Brew

When I first heard of how Survey USA conducts their polls, I too was suspicious simply because of their unorthodox methods. They claim, for what it's worth, that they are actually more accurate than telephone polls, and offer stats to back that up:

http://www.surveyusa.com/electiontrackrecord.html

[Democrats unite]

2. Was leaving Clark out a slip?

eom

[Hawkeye-X]

3. No. That should give you a clue

Clark conceded Iowa which is a fatal mistake.

Hawkeye-X

[Dookus]

5. A little too soon to call it fatal....

his focus on NH seems to be paying off very well.

[slinkerwink]

Dean will win the DC primary, and it'll get him media attention

which carries over into Iowa which he's leading right now, and then onto New Hampshire which he'll win, and then South Carolina where he'll take second or first place, and win most of the Feb.3 primaries. Yep, it was fatal for Clark to skip Iowa.

[SahaleArm]

45. The DC primary? Tell me you're not serious n/t

[adamrsilva]

54. Dean has consistenly lead the DC primary

all the other major candidates dropped out. Who they gonna pick? Al Sharpton??

[NewYorkerfromMass]

10. Kerry's focus on Iowa too!

Kerry's getting really solid support now.

[Democrats unite]

13. What was posted is misleading then!

Clark happens to be in the poll, in the article.

[worldgonekrazy]

24. How is it misleading?

He isn't amongst the leaders in the polls in Iowa because he chose not to even campaign there. He has spent no money in Iowa and he has spent no time in Iowa. Why does it surprise you that he isn't in the poll results listed?

[slinkerwink]

4. well, because he's not even competing in Iowa

why bother to include Clark?

[KaraokeKarlton]

17. Other and Undecided stands at a combined total of 11%

And that total is shared between Clark, Braun, Sharpton and Kucinich. Was Lieberman listed on the poll results? If these figures are a good representation of the rest of the state, Clark can't get 15%. I hope his supporters aren't thinking he's going to make any kind of showing in Iowa. It's coming right up and he quit Iowa. It's true he's picking up a little bit of steam, but it's too little too late. NH is coming right up too and since Clark won't get any kind of respectable placing in Iowa, he'll have no momentum going into NH.

[Cheswick2.0]

6. You might want to study up on what your candidate is doing

No Iowa for him.

[Cheswick2.0]

7. Good news!

Go Howard

[cthrumatrix]

52. a kick for the good news....numbers higher than what MSNBC shared...

[FubarFly]

8. Nice showing by Kerry.

I wonder if that will negate Clark's MO in NH? Things are getting interesting.

[chimpymustgo]

15. John Edwards is the news here, folks.

17%.

Amazing.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

19. agreed

super showing there.

[slinkerwink]

38. I second that also...no wonder why Edward's helping Dean out

by attacking Geppy and Kerry.

[slinkerwink]

21. that's what I think too--if Kerry comes in 2nd in Iowa, he could push

Clark out in NH.

[poskonig]

23. I agree -- Surprising #s for Kerry!

The implications for NH are indeed fascinating to ponder.

[David Zephyr]

9. Which is Why Harkin's Endorsing Dean.

Gephardt's campaign is now finished. He should have stayed in Congress, but then again, I'm happy to have our new minority leader from California in his place.

[Demobrat]

12. Is that official

yet?

[slinkerwink]

16. Harkin might still not endorse Dean but I hope he does!

[Cheswick2.0]

22. David, really?

I just sent him an e-mail and called! What have you heard?

[slinkerwink]

46. you can't say that until you know for sure

;-)

[zulchzulu]

56. Harkin will not endorse Dean

I'm a betting man...

[Hoppin_Mad]

11. Great news - hope all those letters helped ! ;-) -eom-

[jmaier]

14. Pretty interesting.

Thanks, Slinkerwink. I'm actually surprised that there are 4 candidates polling above the magic 15% level though it looks like a very good shot for Gov Dean.



Wes Clark. He will make an extraordinary American President.

[slinkerwink]

18. no problem, jmaier! I like you and wish you were on Dean's side

you're one of the few good polite posters out there. I'll just have to wine and dine you one night, heh. ;-)

[YellowDawgDemocrat]

20. My guess, Harkin will endorse Dean only if he needs it...he doesn't

[worldgonekrazy]

26. A Harkin endorsement would be BIG in my book though

Not that it matters, because I've already got my mind made up on supporting Dean, but Harkin is a man I admire and respect a great deal. He has managed to be quite progressive for a Senator from a moderate state (taken as a whole). His speech at the Wellstone Memorial was truly inspiring. "ORGANIZE, ORGANIZE, ORGANIZE!"

[Demobrat]

27. Considering that this a poll of likely caucus goers

and so many of Dean's supporters are newbies, I predict that Dean is going to KICK ASS in Iowa.

[slinkerwink]

28. same here too, and Gephardt's support comes from old people

who might not be likely to go out into the cold...

[HFishbine]

37. That is the test, isn't it?

That's what we're expecting, that the newbies will come out for Dean. Iowa will be an early test of that hope. If Dean does substantially better than expected, it will give some credence to the notion that Dean is bringing new people to the process. Waiting. Watching.

[sandnsea]

41. I'll bet on Kerry's vets & firefighters

We've got 'em coming in from all over the country. They will KICK ASS, no doubt about it!

[cthrumatrix]

29. looks good to me....

[CMT]

30. Edwards is coming on strong!!

but Dean is leading. All he needs is a win--it doesn't have to be huge, but a win will generate great publicity. Interestingly while Kerry is fading in NH he is right on Gep's tracks in Iowa as is Edwards.

[BootinUp]

42. This race is up in the air

WHen there are 4 candidates that close, anything can happen. It will be very interesting to see what Iowans decide.

If Edwards had a little more national exposure he would be very formidable.

[spooky3]

48. it looks as if Edwards' strategy is

"I can't win NH because Dean & Kerry & Lieberman are better known there, so better to focus my time on Iowa until their caucus and see if I can make a big surge to come in 2nd or 3rd. If I can get a foothold in Iowa and do reasonably well in South Carolina, I will then get a lot more free press and maybe a few more contributions. Then, I'll map out what to do in the next set of primaries."

[jfiling]

51. Totally correct

"If Edwards had a little more national exposure he would be very formidable."

I couldn't have said it better myself, and it's great to here coming from a Clark fan.

[slinkerwink]

43. and if Kerry takes 2nd, the MO will help him take 2nd away from Clark

in NH. Clark has every reason to attack Kerry from now on.

[BootinUp]

57. Outside of Iowa

Clark is the only candidate with momentum. I doubt Kerry can damage him. Clark is the fresh new face, he's going nowhere but up for the time being.

[WillyT]

33. Yeah Baby !!!

:bounce::kick::bounce:

[slinkerwink]

34. thanks for the kick!

[burning bush]

47. Kick to the TOP!

Cause Dean rocks!

[quaker bill]

49. Excellent news

Glad the letters are helping!

Another busload of volunteers is on the way.

[cthrumatrix]

50. but...but...tweety says that Gep is closing

[slinkerwink]

55. this is where Dean's GOTV effort comes into play...

[zulchzulu]

53. I find it hard to believe there are so few undecided

I bet those numbers are still up.

[Zinnola]

58. Thanks Slinker!

:kick: