Dean dropped 13 points in new Iowa poll!

[MIMStigator]

Survey USA POLLS

Jan 8th

Dean 29%
Gephardt 22%
Kerry 21%

December 8

Dean 42
Gephardt 23
Kerry 15

http://www.surveyusa.com/2003_Elections/IA031211demcaucuses.pdf

[RetroLounge]

1. But Gephardt barely moved and is still 2nd

Nice inroads by Kerry.

Where did the rest go? To Edwards?

No link including other candidates?

Gonna get interesting, that's for sure.

[Sagan]

2. I did not see those 1/8 numbers in the link you cited.

They have the original numbers of 12/8. Please cite the relevant information.

[MIMStigator]

4. they're on page 2

eom

[Jack_Dawson]

3. Ouch

[BootinUp]

Thats more than a just a drop.

That is nearly a collapse. They better stop the hemorrahaging.

[chimpymustgo]

5. Cripes! That IS the headline. Though also the rise of Edwards.

Do you have Edwards' Dec. numbers?

My oh my. This is gettin' good.

[chimpymustgo]

7. Got it. Edwards up 7%. Wow.

Big drop for Dean.

[slinkerwink]

6. look.......

Poking around the .pdf details of the poll, here are some interesting findings:

The Saddam capture brought Dean down from his high lead in early December, but then the other endorsements stablized his lead over Gephardt. He's right where he is in November, and he can still pull Iowa out of the bag. I wouldn't do too much crowing if I were you.

This poll is remarkably similar to the November 21st poll- Dean's down 2 points since 11/21, but Kerry is down 3 and Gephardt down 4. Edwards is up 3.

Dean has a borderline significant gender gap favoring him among men (33% among men, 26% among women). Strange, given that the ARG New Hampshire poll, for instance, shows him doing much better among women. Edwards has the reverse gender split (13/20), while Gephardt and Kerry do equally well with both sexes.

Dean's support really does skew young- big lead under 35, smaller lead 35-49 (with Edwards in 2nd), Gephardt leads among those over 50.

Again, Dean does just as well among conservatives (34%) as liberals (37%)- but much worse among moderates (24%). Edwards does best among moderates (21%) and worst among conservatives (9%). Gephardt skews conservative- 28/23/15 C/M/L, and Kerry runs equally well among all three.

Maybe Dean really will win by expanding the electorate- he leads Gephardt and Kerry by only three points among those who voted in 2000, but has double-digit leads among those who didn't or couldn't.

[cthrumatrix]

Headline -- Dean is ahead in Iowa by 30% in new poll

seems like a pretty good position to me

[MIMStigator]

9. ahead by 7 when he was ahead by 20 before

nt

[iowapeacechief]

8. Undecided only 3 percent?

This far out? I don't believe it.

[Moderator]

10. Dupe

Please continue here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=84309&mesg_id=84309

Thanks,
DU Moderator