On A Path To Economic Recovery (chart)

[ProSense]

On A Path To Economic Recovery

[MercutioATC]

1. Job losses accelerated in 11/08. Count forward 26 weeks...and you get to 5/09

Coincidentally, 26 weeks is the time it takes to drop off unemployment rolls.


May wasn't a good month, it was the month that a lot of people stopped being counted.

[ProSense]

2. What was

March and April?

[paulk]

27. April's numbers were affected by temporary jobs with the

US Census.

http://blog.marketplace.nwsource.com/careercenter/census_jobs_offer_a_timely_boost_for_the_sagging_us_economy.html

[Scarsdale Vibe]

5. Unemployment rolls aren't used to calculate unemployment rate

The Census Bureau does a 60,000 household survey every month.

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#where

[MercutioATC]

8. I stand corrected. However...

...if this is indicative of "economic recovery", what happened in June?

[Name removed]

15. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[mkultra]

31. June is on the average line

April may have been an anomaly.

[DrToast]

7. You don't understand that chart

To begin with unemployment benefits have no bearing on whether or not you're considered unemployed.

Second, that chart shows the net monthly jobs lost. This figure is derived from a survey of 400,000 businesses across the country. Again, nothing to do with unemployment benefits.

[Zynx]

22. That has quite literally nothing to do with the count of job losses.

[mkultra]

30. unemployment benifits where extended

[Double T]

3. Looking like a 'dead economist' reverse bounce.

Economic sage JB gives US his latest assessment of our economic situation: http://countusout.wordpress.com/2009/07/06/joe-biden-economy-worse-than-we-thought/

[ProSense]

4. Yeah,

saw that

Six months of "dead economist bounce?

It must be depressing to continually try to spin everything as negative.

[Double T]

9. Spin hardly.

The 'stimulus' is largely focused on BIG infrastructure programs that have proved to be unsuccessful in Japan. Further there is serious talk of cap and trade which equals huge increases in equivalent back door consumption taxes. Yes, the facts are damn depressing, but it sure beats the delusion of happy talk green shoots and blossoms that are conjured up by wall street, corporate america and many of our political leaders.


http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/06/world/asia/06japan.html

[HughMoran]

14. We need more talk of death, destruction and destitute people

That's always good for people's attitudes during down times.

[MercutioATC]

21. I'd rather have a realistic view than a "good attitude".

Finding anything good about the employment situation is truly grasping at straws.

[mkultra]

32. thats not realistic

the economy is showing mixed numbers. That is what is real.

[Double T]

29. Not until the REAL Economic problems are faced can we even hope for this economy to turn around.

Can't send tens of millions of American jobs to other countries and expect any kind of an economic turnaround. Happy talk and positive attitudes won't change a thing; facing the actual real problems then acting decisively to correct them will be our only hope.

[Abq_Sarah]

6. Stimulus performing close to expectations?

Unfortunately, they're not the same "expectations" we were sold.

[Oregone]

11. "Everyone guessed wrong" -- Biden

[HughMoran]

13. I'm sure you had a better solution

Perhaps doing nothing - I'm sure.

[Abq_Sarah]

17. My solution would have directed

Money into the hands of consumers, where it's needed.

[HughMoran]

18. How? Tax cuts as the Republicans proposed? Rebate checks?

Something that produces output like what? I thought public works projects was a good idea - what's your idea?

[Abq_Sarah]

26. I would have eliminated payroll taxes for 6 months to a year

For both employer and employee. More money in the hands of workers and less expenses for business.

Of course, I'm prejudiced as a business owner. I know first hand how much this economy sucks and how ineffective the stimulus has been. Without people purchasing goods and services across the nation, not just in the construction sector, we will not have an economic recovery.

[Oregone]

19. That solution would of sucked an ass

They would of spent it on debt and online porn, like the last time. In fact, thats what much of the tax cuts in the bill probably went to. Its not enough to give a consumer $5 bucks and tell them to buy some food. You give them a food stamp.

Goods and service vouchers are the most effective forms of stimulus, with infrastructure following behind. In times of deficient demand, production levels off and declines due to the lack of private investment. The central authority must disperse the money in ways that stimulate direct production, and thereby, in a chain reaction, production in tangential fields.

Money gets in to consumers hands because they will have jobs and get paid during the stimulated production

[Scarsdale Vibe]

24. It's hard to tell yet whether it's meeting expectations

There is no control group, but if you want to use Obama's economic advisors' forecasts as expectations, then unemployment peaking in Q4 of this year would be meeting expectations. Unemployment peaking in Q3 of 2010 would show the stimulus was ineffective (according to Romer and Bernstein's forecasts) and the midterm elections will be a disaster.

[mkultra]

33. what were you sold?

[Oregone]

10. What if the first wave of people are just done with being laid off?

I mean, isn't it better to look at new jobs, rather than the absence of old jobs?

I know this doesn't look good:



Its a month behind though. That said, the inflation (or shall we say deflation) rate can correlate to production levels

[HughMoran]

12. This oughta be a kick

From post one the negative pants grim people are trying to drag your post in to the depths of hell - god I love DU - it's filled with bitter old grumps! :P

[Oregone]

16. Call the calvary!

Time for you to do the opposite and attempt to denigrate your kindred, but opposed, brethren at the same time.

[Clio the Leo]

20. I remember posting about how the rate of job losses was slowing....

.... a few months back and folks saying I was crazy. :)

I AM crazy ...... but I'm not stupid. ;)

[Oregone]

23. A few months back? Could you attribute that to anything but a seasonal shift?

Just curious really. I mean, look at the change from January to February...do you think that has anything to do with the bill? When the winter approaches, this could all look like optimistic wishful thinking. Who knows really.

Ill say, Id be really surprised if the country only felt the effects of the worst financial catastrophe for but a mere year and a half. That seems...naive. Now, I realize that its in the best interests for the general public to believe next year will be better, even if it wont for 5 years. But to consider what brought us here, its hard for me, as an individual, to gleefully smile and let out a breath. We don't know what the next 6 months holds, nor the next 6 years.

[taught_me_patience]

25. correlation does not equal causation

There are much more factors at play here than the stimulus.

[depakid]

28. Such as California and other states' meltdowns