Nate Silver: Why Democrats Have No Time to Waste

[jefferson_dem]

Why Democrats Have No Time to Waste
by Nate Silver @ 5:33 PM

The Wall Street Journal's has had its monthly economic forecasting panel attempt to predict what the unemployment rate will look like through the end of 2010. And the results are something that should make the Administration -- and Democrats in Congress -- a little nervous. The average forecast for the unemployment rate next December -- a year-and-a-half from now -- is 9.5 percent. That's no better than where unemployment is today. And only one economist out of 51 ventured a forecast below 7.6, which is what the unemployment rate was when Obama took office in January.

It's not that the Journal's forecasters are all that bearish overall. In fact the panel, which has a notoriously bullish track record, expects to see GDP turn positive quite soon: 70 percent expect the recession to end by the fall, and 90 percent by the end of the year.

The unemployment rate, however, has long been a lagging indicator, especially following recent recessions. Suppose that the recession ends in August. Perhaps six months from then -- in February or March -- the economy will actually have started to create jobs. But the employment picture will have gotten worse in the meantime; it will be creating jobs from a peak of, say, 9.9 percent if the administration is lucky, or say, 11.2 percent if it isn't. It will take some time to get the number back down to the 9.5 percent that it's at presently, much less to fall below the 7.6 percent number that would represent an overall gain of jobs during Obama's tenure.

The question is: how playable a hand would the Administration have at that point? They'll probably get some boost when (if?) the recession is declared over. But maybe not much of one. The Persian Gulf Recession officially ended in March 1991; George H.W. Bush was still suffering from the consequences of it 18 months later.

A more favorable precedent, perhaps, is that set by Ronald Reagan. His approval rating hit its trough in February, 1983, a mere three months after the 1981-1982 recession ended. Reagan, more than G.H.W. Bush, could claim to have inherited his recession from the previous administration. Although that recession started in July 1981, half a year into Reagan's term, it was in some ways a continuation of the January-July 1980 recession that began under Jimmy Carter. In this way, his situation is more analogous to Obama's, whom nobody can blame Obama for the start of the current recession -- although increasing numbers will become frustrated with him that it hasn't ended yet.

<SNIP>

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/07/why-democrats-have-no-time-to-waste.html

[rockymountaindem]

1. This is an important post

People should, you know, read it.

[WCGreen]

7. I agree.... Rec # 5

[blue_onyx]

2. Since Obama was elected...

I've been saying that the GOP will turn the recession into Obama's mess for the 2010 election. I'm sure "The Obama Recession" will be a standard talking point soon. It's what happened here in Michigan with our governor and it will happen to Obama. The Democrats, like the article says, have no time to waste. They need to stop this "60 votes are needed" nonsense and push their agenda.

[bluestateguy]

3. and yet Granholm was reelected by a bigger margin in 2006

against a well known opponent who had twice as much money as she did.

[blue_onyx]

6. Yes

because she's a great campaigner and great at shooting down the Republican talking points (and a damn good governor, despite how many feel right now). Not all Democrats are as great of a campaigner as Granholm. I think Obama will be fine in 2012 but I worry about some Democrats who may not be as good at refuting the GOP talking points.

BTW, I think DeVos actually had 3 times the money (14 vs. 41). MI is very lucky Granholm was the Democrat running in 2006 because money usually determines the winner.

[depakid]

4. "They need to stop this "60 votes are needed" nonsense and push their agenda. "

They surely do- but in order to do that, there needs to be ACCOUNTABILITY for the DINO's who damaging the party and its candidates.

Otherwise, the corruption- and the lame excuses, will continue unabated.

[bertman]

5. It's not going to matter whether we're technically out of recession or not. It's all about how

many people are going back to work and whether job opportunities are PERCEIVED to be improving.

If we're still hovering around 10% unemployment, as we are now (official unemployment, of course), there are going to be a lot of very disappointed folks who voted for the Democrats and President Obama. I'll be amazed if they will be willing to give either the benefit of the doubt and that could prove disastrous.

[babylonsister]

9. Do you think those unemployed think McCain would have made this

situation better? We all knew in Oct. 08 how messed up this economy was. My s-i-l got laid off in December and wasn't too surprised. She's also a woman who is struggling to find a job in GA, and it's not happening. Educated, 55, single, mortgage. I don't know what she'll do when her unemployment runs out.

[bertman]

11. I don't think it will be a matter of whether McCain would have done better, but whether

President Obama has done what he said he was going to do. The public has a very short memory and attention span.

The Republicans are masters at framing this type of situation as a Democratic failure. The Democrats are masters at failing to counter the Republican charges. I wish that weren't the case, but historically it's true. Maybe this time it will be different.

I'm sorry to hear about your sister-in-law. That is a very unfortunate situation that many people are finding themselves in. My wife is currently looking for work in a very weak job market, having recently been laid off from her job of 12 years.

I don't think ALL of the unemployed will hold the Dems and President Obama accountable, but it won't take a lot of them to do the damage. My home state, North Carolina, barely went blue in '08, but could very quickly and easily go back to red. (Our freshman Democratic Senator is a Blue Dog).

[Better Believe It]

8. K & R

[scheming daemons]

10. In '82 and '84, the Republicans framed the 81-82 recession as the "Carter recession"

We need to make sure the frame next year is that we're coming out of the "Bush Recession".


We have to beat that term like a drum.