PA-Gov, PA-06: Gerlach to Run for Governor

[ccharles000]

The Allentown Morning Call has the scoop:

U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach has alerted top officials at the National Republican Congressional Committee that he'll run for governor next year in lieu of a reelection effort in Congress.

The decision is expected in an announcement Tuesday. It sets up a GOP primary battle for governor of Pennsylvania between the four-term suburban Philadelphia lawmaker and Pennsylvania Attorney General Tom Corbett and leaves the Republican Party facing a battle to retain a congressional seat that Gerlach has held since the district was drawn at the turn of the decade.

A "GOP source" is confirming the news with Roll Call. This will be a pretty hot open-seat battle; while the GOP does have some bench strength in this district, the ground has rapidly shifted from underneath them on the Presidential level. In 2000, Al Gore barely nosed Bush with 49% of the vote in this CD, while John Kerry bumped that margin up to 52-48 four years later. According to an SSP analysis of the results from last November, Barack Obama blew the door wide open, scoring a ridiculous 58-41 win over McCain while Gerlach won another term with a much narrower margin than anyone expected against an opponent with severe name recognition issues. It's no wonder that Gerlach is pulling on the ripcord after so many election nights filled with heartburn.

The Democrats' early recruit, former Philadelphia Inquirer editorial board member Doug Pike, has an early fundraising advantage over the field, having raked in a reported $500K in the second quarter and possessing a substantial amount of personal wealth to supplement that haul in the future... but whether or not that will scare off other potential Democratic candidates in this CD remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the GOP's leading recruit, state Rep. Curt Schroder, only raised $20K during this exploratory phase of his campaign. Presumably he'll kick things into gear now that he's no longer fundraising for an officially-hypothetical race, but that's still not an impressive way to christen one's campaign.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5269/pagov-pa06-gerlach-to-run-for-governor

[mvd]

1. Good, maybe we'll get a Democrat in my district now (I live in PA-6)

And if he's the Repuke nominee, I can work against Gerlach yet again.

[enough]

2. Me too. Any thoughts about what Dem might run and win?

Andy Dinniman?

[mvd]

3. This says Doug Pike is the frontrunner

http://campaigndiaries.com/

Another idea is Trappe mayor Connie Peck, but I don't know if she'd be interested.

[enough]

4. I don't know Pike, but what I read about him makes me nervous.

He would be another in a long line of Dem candidates for this seat who do not have any working experience with local politics in the area. A fund-raising advantage is nice, but at least in my part of Chester County, politics runs on personal connections. Then there's the weird shape of the district, so somebody with good connections in one part of the district might not know anybody in the rest of the area.

Anyway, it should be interesting.

[enough]

5. A couple of stories on the races in today's Daily Local News (Chester County):

Schroder running for GOP nod in 6th District

http://www.dailylocal.com/articles/2009/07/15/news/srv0000005845830.txt



Gerlach formally enters contest for Pa. governor

http://www.dailylocal.com/articles/2009/07/15/news/srv0000005845350.txt