Will Obama win a 2nd term?

[Liberal_in_LA]

7 months into Obama's 1st term, what is your feeling about his chances for a 2nd term...given the economy and such?

[billyoc]

1. By a landslide.

[Liberal_in_LA]

2. By some of the threads in DU, seems like he's gonna have to win w/o DU support.

[elocs]

7. Does he really need supporters that get remorseful & hyper-critical after 6 months?

I sure wouldn't trust them to have my back.

[Forkboy]

14. Yes.

I'd rather we didn't just give away votes if we can help it. I think Obama is going to win handily against anyone I can see on the horizon, but I don't take any votes for granted. I know you can't please everyone, but you give up votes only as a last resort. We're not nearly at that point yet.

[BlooInBloo]

29. Most of them never supported him in the first place, so it's no loss.

[Political Heretic]

8. non sequitur

Supporting Obama over a likely nutcase fanatic GOP nominee has nothing to with lamenting the fact that an actual liberal option is not possible in this national political system. Nor does it have anything to do with being frustrated between the huge disconnect between what the American people deeply need and what a privileged interests government is willing to give.

Those feelings and preferring someone like Obama over a fanatical right conservative nutcase are not at all in congruent with each other. It's just that a moderate centrist beating a nutcase still leaves us with a shitty system. Just not as shitty as it could be. :shrug:

[DrToast]

11. Oh please. That all changes when the choice is Obama or...

Mitt Romney

or

Mike Huckabee

or

Sarah Palin

etc.

As to the question of whether or not Obama wins a second term? I say easily and with somewhere between 55% and 60% of the vote.

[billyoc]

20. I doubt he's worried about a few hundred bloggers.

[RichGirl]

21. Yes,,,you are right.

In 2012 DUers will support Sarah Palin for president because Obama didn't undo the Bush damage in less than 6 months.

[No Passaran]

87. if you truly believe those are DUers

Freepers-a-plenty on DU

[Aramchek]

89. no, just without douchebag support, and who needs that, really?

[Orsino]

101. By all but a few threads on DU...

...Obama is still head and shoulders above anything the Republicans could possibly field.

[DailyGrind51]

51. Ted Kennedy will leave his sick-bed to save the public option along with the President's re-election

[BlooInBloo]

3. And I'll have almost as much fun with some DUers' tears over it as I have thus far.

[Political Heretic]

6. No one would cry over his defeat of a lunatic republican. Of course you know this.

That has nothing to with lamenting the fact that an actual liberal option is not possible in this national political system. Nor does it have anything to do with being frustrated between the huge disconnect between what the American people deeply need and what a privileged interests government is willing to give.

Those feelings and preferring someone like Obama over a fanatical right conservative nutcase are not at all in congruent with each other. It's just that a moderate centrist beating a nutcase still leaves us with a shitty system. Just not as shitty as it could be. :shrug:

[Liberal_in_LA]

12. You are a nasty poster

[BlooInBloo]

15. (shrug) We all have our faults.

[Deja Q]

92. Nobody's perfect... but if you don't like him, put him on ignore... and you'd still be at a loss.

For everything we all on DU might disagree with each other over, there are some similarities.

[Ohio Joe]

4. Yes

I find it doubtful anyone in the Democratic party will challenge him and the way the repugs are destroying themselves, I don't see anyone seriously being a challenge to him.

[Deja Q]

5. I'll let you know

in three years. :D

[tocqueville]

9. depends of the outcome of WWIII

after the Israeli strike on Iran.

[doc03]

10. I highly doubt it. If the economy doesn't make a miraculous

turnaround in the next year it will 1994 again. The American people want instant gratification I think it will take a miracle to win a second term. Who do think will get the blame for the massive deficits, inflation and tax increases.

[BlooInBloo]

17. How many states do you think Obama will win?

I've so greatly enjoyed those here who predicted Obama would win 0 states in the general. Nothing like getting that ball rolling again.

[doc03]

18. The only thing I can go on is

what people in my immediate area are saying, what little support he had here has rapidly disappeared.

[BlooInBloo]

19. hahahah! So an area that never supported him any way still doesn't...

And from that you conclude he'll lose.

GENIUS!

[doc03]

23. He did carry Ohio you know n/t

[BlooInBloo]

24. "what little support he had here" - My apologies for believing anything you say...

I'll try not to let it happen again.

[doc03]

25. Locally he had little support but he did carry the state

I voted for him although he wasn't my first choice in the primaries, so far I don't think I would again. My biggest complaint is the deficits he is running up. When it comes to economic issues I am a conservative.

[BlooInBloo]

28. mmmmm.... Equivocation: It's not just for dinner anymore.

[CakeGrrl]

31. But according to the other thread in which you would pick Hillary in 2012

You think she'd do better though they are pretty close in ideology.

Hmmm...methinks other motivations are afoot.

:rofl:

[doc03]

38. I would have picked Hillary over Obama

in 2008 but Obama was the who was left over. No I don't think Hillary would have run up so much deficit spending, Bill left with a surplus. I was never much of a Obama fan to start with and haven't seen anything much to change my opinion so far. I didn't know I had to support Obama no matter what. Isn't this Democratic Underground not the Obama no matter what site.. It was the same in the Primaries if you didn't like Obama you were called a racist.

[Arugula Latte]

84. And if you didn't like Hillary you were called anti-women, even if you were a woman. nt

[StevieM]

108. I heard a lot more Hillary people getting called racists just for supporting her then I did

Obama people being called anti-woman.

Steve

[Hansel]

58. Gov Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota

couldn't even come close to beating Obama in his home state according to a poll taken last week.

[blue_onyx]

36. Obama will win all the states he won 2008

plus Missouri, Montana, Arizona, and Georgia. Depending on who the GOP picks, he could win more. If they go with an somewhat acceptable alternative (Romney, Pawlenty), the GOP won't lose too many states. If they are dumb and nominate Palin, I bet Obama will win even more states.

[doc03]

39. I wouldn't underestimate Palin, she is just the kind

of person that could appeal to the average American.

[blue_onyx]

43. Are you serious?

George Bush may have been able to get a lot of support for being an average guy who "I can have a beer with" but Palin isn't Bush. Bush was far more likable in 2000 than Palin. Plus, Gore was stiff and wasn't someone people felt they could relate to which isn't an issue with Obama. Palin would be the worst possible nominee for the GOP.

[BlooInBloo]

48. BWAHAHAHAAHAHA AHAHAHAAAA!!!!!elevens!!!!!!

[Lord Helmet]

50. facepalm

meow

[Engineer4Obama]

52. ...

:banghead:
:banghead:
:banghead:
:banghead:
:banghead:
:banghead:
:banghead:
:banghead:
:banghead:
:banghead:

I do believe you owe average Americans an apology.

[Hansel]

57. WTF. nt

[Arkana]

63. You're just trolling now, because this statement is such crap I don't even

know where to start with it.

[firedupdem]

67. the average idiot american!

ms. "real america" wouldn't get a vote from anybody I know, from any major city. She doesn't appeal to the "average" at all.

[Hutzpa]

68. Just the same way you can say people do have wet dreams

could be you're having one right now, ain't nothing wrong with that.

:evilgrin:

[cemaphonic]

110. I doubt that

My grandpa voted for Obama largely thanks to Palin, and he's an 85 year old white male from Colorado that has never voted Democratic in his life, and liked McCain overall. Early on in the election season, he was passing around those stupid "Obama is a crypto-Muslim" emails.

Of course, that's just an anecdote, but I do remember seeing a bunch of polls around the election suggesting that Palin was a drag on the mainstream conservative wing of the Republicans.

[Arkana]

62. I disagree.

I don't think we'll get Ohio again.

We didn't win Ohio because of our efforts, we won it because McCain voters stayed home. I think Obama received only about 17K more votes than John Kerry did in 2004.

Of course, we'll balance that with winning Arizona and probably Missouri. Maybe Georgia (although it would take a lot of work).

[blue_onyx]

82. If you're right about Ohio

then Indiana and North Carlina will probably be lost too. They were very close in 2008. Florida was a closer race than Ohio so that state would probably go to the Republicans as well.

[Arkana]

83. Florida I disagree about.

GOTV worked wonders there. I think with the GOP pissing all over the Hispanic vote, we could carry Florida again for a couple election cycles.

Indiana was a GOTV miracle too--we may not be able to replicate it, but it's no longer a safe red state for next election cycle.

North Carolina I think will lean more in our direction next time.

[mikekohr]

26. Leading indicators are pointing to a recovery either starting now

or in the next two months. Lagging indicators, most important being employment, will come around by the end of the year. Remember the Reagan Recession of 1982? 10.5% unemployment, 21% interest rates. This downturn which has far deeper structural weakness' will not meet the misery standard of the Reagan induced economic collapse. The difference being this recession which was fomented in the economic ineptitude of the GWB administration is being cut short by Democratic "Bubble Up" economic practices.

Republican's "f" up. We clean up.

mike kohr

[Hansel]

70. My work is hiring temps like crazy

when we weren't hiring at all for about 1/2 year. If the temp agencies are starting to see business pick up, that would be the best sign that jobs numbers are about to recover. 1st they hire them, then they begin to make their positions permanent.

[CitizenLeft]

86. you are right on the money with that assessment

(pardon the pun :) ) Temp agencies are picking up even in this depressed area (Cleveland). I know - I'm one of them. I'm on track to be hired permanently hopefully by Sept, but almost certainly before the year is out. *fingers crossed*

[DrToast]

33. 1994?

Two problems with that. Bill Clinton wasn't even remotely as popular as Obama. And the Republicans weren't even close to being as hated as they are now.

Remember that Clinton won in 1992 with 43% of the vote.

[doc03]

41. In 1992 there were three candidates for President

of course he only got 43% of the vote. Bill Clinton only got 43% of the vote and wasn't the legitimate President was the Rush Limbaugh talking point. None of us have any idea what Obama's poll numbers will be in the 2010 election cycle. Those poll numbers can turn on a dime especially if the economy is still in the tank.

[DrToast]

44. What do you mean "of course" he only got 43% of the vote?

In 2008 there something like 8 candidates running.

There reason it matters is because Clinton was starting from a lower point in the polls. It wasn't that hard to imagine the Democrats getting crushed in 1994 because they were never that popular in 1992 in the first place.

[Odin2005]

60. The US was still in depression when we re-elected FDR.

The public mood has shifted fundamentally.

[baldguy]

13. In countries where they instituted universal health care, the party responsable tends to remain in p

for the next generation at least.

[Spider Jerusalem]

106. Except when it doesn't.

A Labour government was responsible for the NHS in Britain. The Tories won a majority at the next general election, in 1951; Labour didn't return to power until 1964.

[Forkboy]

16. I suspect he will do so easily.

[Hawaii Hiker]

22. I do & here's why..

First, he's very likeable, his family is very likeable, he's extremely intelligent, charasmatic, & classy....He looks & acts presidential...And people have confidence in him...Also, people know the absolute fucking mess he inherited & I think they will give him 2 terms to fix it...Hey, if Bush got 2 terms, President Obama should be able to COAST to a second term...

Also, Obama opened up ALOT of new areas, electorally speaking, last time...In 2004, it was a matter of who would win 2/3 states between FL, PA, & OH...Obama won places like NC, IN, VA, CO, etc last Nov...He will force the 2012 Republican nominee to spend alot of money in places they normally didn't have to spend those precious dollars in....Plus, I think Arizona, Missouri, & Montana are winnable for Obama in 2012 - he lost the latter 2 by slim margins & only lost AZ. because it was McCain's home state...

[DutchLiberal]

27. Yes, because he is a 'Feel Good President'...

And because he doesn't go against any corporate interests, like a good center-right politician, there won't be a JFK pulled on him.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

30. Yes

IMHO he'd have to do something that is pretty crazy or utterly suicidal to lose. The Repukes toare always going to be a perennial threat but I haven't seen any signs that they are in any better shape right now than they were in 2006 or 2008 to mount a serious challenge in 2010 let alone to field a winning Presidential candidate in 2012.

However, a day in politics is nearly as long as a lifetime so we'll just have to see what happens but I'm sticking with him wining a second term in 2012. Whatever flaws he has, I don't think that most people are going to desert him and go with the Repukes again. He wouldn't be enjoying +/-60% approval rating nearly 6 months in if people were really that dissatisfied with him and/or his policies (like the Repukes frequently claim).

When he starts getting below, say, 50% and/or the prospect of maintaining Democratic control of Congress starts looking bad, then I'll start worrying. So far, things haven't gotten significantly better but I kind of feel like things might be stabilizing or, at least, not really getting worse. The key IMHO is the voters' perceptions of who's responsible for the state of affairs in 2010 and 2012. If it's Obama and the Democrats, then there might be a problem- at least as long as the Repukes field a more "moderate" candidate (yeah, right :rofl:). If they remember who REALLY got us into the mess, then I wouldn't worry too much, particularly if we get a health care reform bill passed that ends up actually helping people- that alone would also help people's pocketbooks as well!

[stray cat]

32. Only if you vote for him

[cherokeeprogressive]

34. With all the conviction I have in my body I say

maybe.

[Arkana]

64. If I don't make it through this, tell my wife I said "Hello."

[Spider Jerusalem]

35. Seven months in, it's too soon to tell, and foolish to even ask at this point.

[AlinPA]

37. It looks like Palin is a strong favorite now, but it is a long time; but with the R's

moving further to the right, she will win her primary easily. A lot of lackluster VP possiblities and but she will be beaten easily. Americans are stupid, but not so stupid enough to select her in a presidential election.

[Arkana]

65. Why do you think Palin will win the primaries?

Romney's got enough money to bloody her up good--and a substantial portion of the party dislikes her enough to vote for someone else. Plus, if Huck runs he'll siphon votes from her in Southern states. Mitt will win the North and a lot of the West, and Huck and Sarah will split the South. That gives Mitt the nomination.

[AlinPA]

90. My opinion: I said it is a long time, but republicans (71%) favor her now.

She will go on the road with PR that Romney and Huckabee won't get (the media loves covering her). Her celebrity status will give her a big advantage with those voters over Huckabee and Romney who will appear boring to them.

The Christian evangelical/fundamentalists will prefer her over Romney; she beats him on guns, and in her "real America" as she calls it of rural voters she beats him. I see her doing better than Huckabee outside the south and actually will do better than him in the south and western states because she will raise more money.

"When it comes to a potential presidential run, the USA TODAY Poll displays Palin's strength in the Republican base and weakness among swing voters, who traditionally decide national elections. Republicans by 71%-27% say they'd be likely to vote for her if she ran for president in 2012, while independents by 51%-44% would not."

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=8026703&page=1

[Blasphemer]

40. I think he will win a 2nd term

Even if I imagine the very worst, I really don't think the country will turn to the GOP. Worst case scenario, I think people would sit the election out rather than looking to the Republicans to fix what they broke. Perhaps, low voter turnout and a less decisive victory but no matter what happens (barring the unlikely personal and/or political scandal), I think Obama will be re-elected.

[scheming daemons]

42. yes. Easily.

[jclincali]

45. Yes, but it will be very close and not enthusiastic like 2008.

[CakeGrrl]

54. That won't be a shock around here. Lord knows there are enough self-identified

"nose-holders" and discontented. It'll be a surprise that some of them admit to voting for him again.

[saltpoint]

46. Yes.

[FrenchieCat]

47. Palin is coming in for the landslide in '12!

:sarcasm:

[lilytea]

55. LOLOL!!

[Liberal_in_LA]

73. lol

[Sebastian Doyle]

49. If the election were held today, there's no Repuke that could beat him in a fair election

Probably won't be in 2012 either. But if turnout isn't enough to beat the fraud, who knows what could happen?

And if Obama doesn't deliver some change by then, he will not have the turnout that gave him an electoral landslide last November.

[polmaven]

53. His "chances" are high.

Given what was in place when he got here, he is doing 90% of what I was hoping for. There have been one or two things that have disappointed me, but I'm not even sure that things like warrant less wiretapping won't be taken care of before lon....Just not at the top of the list.

Um, but...pssst... January 20 to July 20 is 6 months, not 7. :hi:

[Name removed]

56. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Odin2005]

59. Yes, and if history is a guide he will win by a bigger margin than in 2008.

It will be a cross between 1936 and 1964. 1936 in that Obama will overwhelmingly (by around 70% or more) win the youth vote, just like FDR did (he won 86% of the votes of the Greatest Generation in that election). It will be like 1964 in that the GOP challenger will be perceived as scary nutjob.

[Arkana]

61. I'd say he will, barring any cataclysmic events.

We've got to show some progress on the job front, though--otherwise it's going to be uphill at best.

[Robeson]

66. I certainly hope so.

[Tarheel_Dem]

69. No. Because turns out he's not the socialist he was accused of being.

:sarcasm:

[leftofthedial]

71. jobs and health care will tell the tale

[quakerboy]

99. seconded

3 years left till the election. That's a lot of time for people to turn on someone. It will all depend on how bad things get, what is accomplished to help them, who accomplishes it, and who most successfully blames whom for the suffering.

[Drunken Irishman]

72. Obama will not only win, but he'll win in a landslide.

Of course, it won't be near the landslides of 80, 84 and 88, but he'll win every state he carried in 2008 and Georgia, Arizona, Missouri and possibly Montana.

Hell, maybe he'll shock in Texas, too!

[Liberal_in_LA]

74. I hope so! :-)

[Cali_Democrat]

76. I like your optimism!!!

:toast:

[Odin2005]

104. Like I said above, a better comparison will be with 1936.

FDR got a whopping 86% of the youth vote even though older voters, like today's younger Boomers and older Gen-Xers, tended toward the Right, calling FDR "THAT MAN in the White House".

[IndianaGreen]

75. Afghanistan is Obama's war of choice

an unwinnable war unless the Afghans themselves reject the Taleban, which there is little evidence that they are doing so.

[Jennicut]

77. I am really moody tonight so I say why are we worried about this now?

2012 is so far off. We need to worry about 2010 first anyway.

[BlooInBloo]

78. It's just folks trying to sow seeds of fear with a bit of i-told-you-so to boot...

Pretty laughable.

[Jennicut]

80. True.

I just don't ever get the posts about 2012...like we can predict where America will be at that point and how well Obama is doing by then...although I most definitely will be voting for Obama again (like there is any alternative anyway and the man seems pretty popular right now).

[Fearless]

79. Depends...

If he follows through with all the things that we want, then yes. If not, then we'll find someone else.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

81. Ask me again in December 2012.

[Arugula Latte]

85. Looks like your poll isn't getting the results you hoped for. nt

[old mark]

88. He might win a third term

but for that damn "ammendment" thing....let's get rid of that one.

markO8)

[ShadowLiberal]

91. Too early to say, wait until 2010

Unless things are worse then anyone's expecting chances are the economy will recover by the 2012 elections, but there's other issues that matter to voters as well. And other big events can change things to.

[Pushed To The Left]

93. I'm generally a pessimist about a lot of things, and even I feel confident that Obama will get a 2nd

term. I'm concerned about Congress, though.

[avaistheone1]

94. Just vote for Goldman Sachs.

Remember a vote for Obama is a vote for Goldman Sachs.

[BlooInBloo]

95. That's just about the right number of 'no''s that I would have expected here.

[thelordofhell]

96. Once people get to experience good health care for the 1st time in their lives....

Obama in a landslide.

[burning rain]

97. I'd be surprised if he lost his re-election; here's the biggest reason why.

The economy sucks and Democrats in general, and Obama in particular, are rightly seen as caring more about the interests of most Americans. The only strong counter-offer Republicans have is cutting taxes, and that approach has been discredited by the failure of post-1980 supply side economics to do much for most Americans. So I suspect that Democrats have a very clear advantage in regard of the economy.

[depakid]

102. There could well be a thrird party candidate in that case

One with economic gravitas- and the willingness to listen to those who got it right. In that case, all bets are off.

[CJCRANE]

98. Nice talking point!

:silly:

[jesus_of_suburbia]

100. If the economy is good, then ABSOLUTELY!

If it is just a little better or worse, then it'll be harder.

[Autumn]

103. Depends on how he handles

the shit that needs to be fixed. We should get a better feel for it in a year or so.

[vanboggie]

105. Depends on whether Pugs decide to steal again n/t

[tomreedtoon]

107. You have to be alive to be re-elected.

Well, technically, you could vote for an assassinated leader, as happened in Missouri, but it won't do you much good. I am certain that Limbaugh's army will get encouraged enough to pull off what Pigboy has been promoting ever since Obama was nominated.

[StevieM]

109. I think the most important determinent will be the battle for health care reform

I think that if he gets something passed then he is extremely likely to win re-election, especially if it includes a public option.

Obviously, 3 years is an eternity in politics and it is impossible to know for certain until the time comes.

Steve

[WI_DEM]

111. It's way too early to predict one way or another.