THE CBO - CBO Analysis On Healthcare From The CBO - Without RW Spin!

[TomCADem]

It is funny how often the CBO analysis is discussed without actually looking at the CBO's analysis. Instead, everyone, including us folks on DU, rely on the spin given by politicians and the media. First, the CBO notes on its webpage that healthcare costs are placing the federal budget on an unsustainable path just like President Obama and Peter Orzag have repeatedly said:

<>

Indeed, this graph is prominently displayed on the CBO's website. Yet, during the Sunday news shows, was this mentioned at all by reporters or Republicans?

Second, here are some powerpoint presentations from the CBO discussing the need for healthcare reform, and the options that are being considered:

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/99xx/doc9924/SlidesHealthBriefing.pdf

Third, here is the CBO's latest analysis noting the cost containing measures for healthcare, which were not really mentioned today by the so-called liberal media:

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/104xx/doc10464/hr3200.pdf

###

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the staff of the Joint Committee on
Taxation (JCT) have completed a preliminary analysis of H.R. 3200, the America’s
Affordable Health Choices Act of 2009, as introduced on July 14, 2009. This
analysis does not reflect any modifications or amendments made after that date.
Among other things, the legislation would establish a mandate for legal residents to
obtain health insurance; set up insurance “exchanges” through which some
individuals and families could receive subsidies to substantially reduce the cost of
purchasing insurance; significantly expand eligibility for Medicaid; make
modifications to the Medicare and Medicaid programs; and impose an income-tax
surcharge on high-income individuals.

* * *

The legislation would establish a mandate to have health insurance, expand
eligibility for Medicaid, and establish new health insurance exchanges through
which some people could purchase subsidized coverage. The options available in
the insurance exchange would include private health insurance plans as well as a
public plan that would be administered by the Secretary of Health and Human
Services. The specifications would also require payments of penalties by uninsured
individuals, firms that did not provide qualified health insurance, and other firms
whose employees would receive subsidized coverage through the exchanges. The
plan would also provide tax credits to small employers that contribute toward the
cost of health insurance for their workers.

Collectively, those provisions would yield a significant increase in the number of
Americans with health insurance. By 2019, CBO and the staff of JCT estimate, the
number of nonelderly people without health insurance would be reduced by about
37 million, leaving about 17 million nonelderly residents uninsured (nearly half of
whom would be unauthorized immigrants). In total, CBO estimates that enacting
those provisions would raise deficits by $1,042 billion over the 2010-2019 period.

###

[FrenchieCat]

1. Yep, unlike the days of Cronkite, we now have news reporting by omission.....

If they leave it out, they figure it ain't really there.

That's what makes everything hard to get done; our media.

[TomCADem]

2. Interesting Note From The CBO Is That Half Of The Remaining Uninsured

...following the implementation of healthcare reforms will be undocumented residents, who may be reluctant to take advantage of a public plan option or any option for that matter due to the risk of being identified by immigration officials.

[FrenchieCat]

3. That is a tricky problem

which is why we need immigration reform to get passed at some point, as one issue certainly can and does permeate into another.

[bvar22]

4. Some of the OTHER items NOT discussed from the SAME CBO report:

*ONLY 10 Million Americans will be covered by the Public Plan by 2019.
Big Insurance should be very happy.
With the MANDATE and only 10 Million in the Public Plan after 10 years, they will be raking in the money.
Billions of it will be YOUR Tax Money buying Resorts and Yachts for the Big Insurance CEOs.

If the Public Plan only enrolls 3% of Americans, will they have any negotiating power to drive down Health Care Costs?

"Most importantly, the CBO coverage tables undermine the conservative claim that a public option would eliminate private insurance and erode employer-sponsored coverage. The House bill actually increases the number of people who receive coverage through their employer by 2 million (in 2019) and shifts most of the uninsured into private coverage. By 2019, 30 million individuals would also purchase coverage from the Exchange, but only 9-10 million Americans (or approximately 1/3) would enroll in the public option, the rest would enroll in private coverage."

http://wonkroom.thinkprogress.org/2009/07/14/house-bill-comes-in-at-1-trillion-undermines-gop-talking-points/

*Health Insurance will be mandated for all Americans, but Providers will be able to refuse Public Plan Participants.

Provider participation is voluntary – Medicare providers are presumed to be participating unless they opt out."

*The Public Option "should" be about 10% cheaper than Private Insurance.
I guess that is something, but a Publicly Owned Government Administered Plan that is open to ALL Americans could cut costs by at least 25%. (Difference between Medicare and Private Insurance administration).



*Many that are receiving Employer Based Insurance will be locked out of the "Exchange" and forced to keep their more expensive insurance.

"Under the main health bills being debated in Congress, many people with job-based insurance could find it difficult to impossible to switch to health plans on a new insurance exchange, even if the plans there were cheaper or offered better coverage. The restrictions extend to any government-run plan, which would be offered on the exchange.

<snip>

But critics argue that the rules run counter to suggestions from health care reform advocates that an overhaul could provide people with a broader choice of insurance options. The rules, they say, could be especially unfair to some lower-income workers who are enrolled in costly job-based insurance. Also, they argue, the restrictions would hurt the proposed public plan by limiting enrollment."

http://www.newjerseynewsroom.com/healthquest/for-many-workers-insurance-choices-may-be-limited-after-health-care-overhaul

There are many other details that need to be examined, but the one MOST glaring is the prediction that ONLY 10 Million will be enrolled in the Public Option by 2019. That is minuscule compared to what America is demanding.

Do you believe that the 72% of Americans who are calling for a "Public Option" will be satisfied with this?

[quantass]

5. IMHO, 10 million is a gross underestimate! Ultimately however America needs experimetns like this

cuz it FINALLY makes the nation see that Single Payer is the ONLY real choice...any other option is a gimmick.