Why Obama likes his odds...

[kjackson227]

By E.J. Dionne Jr.
Monday, July 20, 2009

It was not the soaring rhetoric that is Barack Obama's signature, but he recently offered the sound bite that may define his presidency: "Don't bet against us."

There are reasons to believe that his confident words -- they were about health-care reform but have broader application -- were not the bombast of a bluffer exaggerating the strength of his hand. They reflect the high cards that Obama holds and has only now started to play.

Of course, no one ever thought passing a health-care bill would be easy, and the effort hit some bumps last week over costs and how to cover them.

But Obama doesn't quite see things the way his more nervous Democratic allies do because he missed the years in Washington during which his party was beaten down. Many Democrats had their perceptions of political reality shaped by the failure of Bill Clinton's health proposal, the 1994 Republican revolution and the GOP's triumphalism during President Bush's first term.

That world, however, turned upside down in 2005 -- the year Obama arrived in Washington. Bush's power dissolved in the failure of his Social Security privatization proposal, the Hurricane Katrina backlash and rising disillusionment with the Iraq war. By the end of 2006, less than two years after Obama's arrival, Democrats had seized control of both houses of Congress.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/19/AR2009071901758.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

[ProSense]

1. Good piece. n/t

[localroger]

2. Obama's first pot hand

I have been expecting this since pretty much before inauguration. Obama has tiptoed around a lot of his promises, pissing off some people who worked hard to elect him in the process, but I don't think he plans to stiff anybody. He is not going to spend any of his capital on something he knows he can't win, no matter how worthy it might be. He's been saving it up for something big that he can win, and I always suspected that would be health care, because that is something that will take a lot of capital to accomplish, but which he can probably put over the top and will be wildly popular.

This is the critical hand; this is where he's going all in. If he wins this thing -- and he's only playing it because he thinks he can -- he will come away stronger than ever and able to take aim at more difficult and less universally popular things.

[Phx_Dem]

3. Exactly. And probably why he hasn't taken on DADT yet.

He's saving his political capital for the most urgent issue . . . health care! Not to mention that pesky economy that he's had to deal with. He's got his priorities in order and health care is numero uno.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

4. Prepare to get flamed.

I agree with your synopsis though. Health care reform is too important to risk to any other issue.

[Phx_Dem]

5. I don't give a shit. I ignore flames, so let 'em bring it on.

[FrenchieCat]

6. Nervous Democratic Allies is Right!

They need to chill out....with their scary selves.