GA-Gov, NJ-Gov: Big Leads for Barnes, Oxendine, Christie

[ccharles000]

Strategic Vision (R) (7/17-19, likely voters, 6-12/14 in parentheses):

Roy Barnes (D): 46 (49)
Thurbert Baker (D): 31 (30)
David Poythress (D): 4 (5)
Dubose Porter (D): 3 (2)
Undecided: 16 (14)

John Oxendine (R): 38 (35)
Nathan Deal (R): 16 (12)
Karen Handel (R): 9 (13)
Eric Johnson (R): 5 (4)
Ray McBerry (R): 3 (2)
Austin Scott (R): 2 (2)
Undecided: 27 (32)
(MoE: ±3%)

Republican pollster Strategic Vision takes another look at both the primary fields in the Georgia governor's race (sorry, no general election matchups). As their previous polls have shown, Insurance Comm. John Oxendine has a head start on the GOP field, while former Gov. Roy Barnes leads the Dems. Strategic Vision has repeatedly shown AG Thurbert Baker polling much stronger than Rasmussen.

Strategic Vision (R) (7/17-19, likely voters, 6-19/21 in parentheses):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 38 (39)
Chris Christie (R): 53 (51)
Christopher Daggett (I): 5 (N/A)
Undecided: 4 (8)
(MoE: ±3%)

Strategic Vision also takes a look at the New Jersey's governor's race. This is very consistent with the most recent Quinnipiac and Rasmussen polls. Suffice it to say that if Jon Corzine is going to start making a move, now would be the time to do it.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5321/gagov-njgov-big-leads-for-barnes-oxendine-christie

[ccharles000]

1. kick

[Kdillard]

2. Jon Corzine really needs help.

[karynnj]

4. sadly, this poll was immediately after Obama campaigned for him

I also fear the big. mostly Democratic corruption scandal today will be a problem, even though he had nothing to do with it. I have phonebanked and canvassed in several past Democratic races here in NJ. In all of them the issue of corruption as always come up spontaneously. Christie and his lt gov are both prosecutors. Though Christie has some likely corruption issues, from those numbers they aren't sticking. (The good news is that we have a HUGE majority in the legislature. Assuming we keep that, it may be possible to keep Christie from doing much.)

-- I loved phonebanking in MA last year. Not one person spoke of corruption and I was surprised how many people responded saying they were voting for "John", rather than saying either his full name or Senator Kerry. I never heard anyone say "Jon", "Frank" or "Bob" - in fact, I had to google to get Menendez's first name as the only think that came to mind was "Senator". I will phonebank for Corzine, but I am not enthusiastic about it knowing the responses I will likely get.

[Thrill]

3. Corzine next stop? Treasury Department

Doesn't even look like Obama can save him. I'm not in NJ, maybe he's just done a bad job. He's probably pissed he left the Senate now. Maybe Lautenburg will step down before the election and let Corzine appoint himself :)

[karynnj]

5. NJ was really hurt by the meltdown of the finacial markets

Corzine did the best he could with the budget, making some deep cuts - but preserving education funding. He did cut out a "property tax rebate" that people have received for over a decade for families with over $75,000 income. (NJ is one always one of the top three wealthiest states, so there are a LOT of people losing it.) In addition, there was a long running story relating to a top union executive in a union that included government employees, who he dated and gave a lot of money (and her brother) to when they broke up. Some groups tried to get their emails - the reason is that there was concern that there could be conflicts of interest.