Since Primary Challenge, Specter Voting with Dems 97% of the Time

[ccharles000]

In the first month or so after becoming a Democrat, Specter was voting with his new party about two-thirds of the time on these Contentious Votes. While there are some less loyal Democrats -- say, Ben Nelson of Nebraska -- who only vote with their party about half the time, this was certainly less than what most Democratic observers were hoping for.

But since then, indeed, something has changed. Well, a couple of things have changed. On May 27th, Congressman Joe Sestak announced that he intended to challenge Specter for the Democratic nomination. And since that time, Specter has voted with his party on 28 out of 29 Contentious Votes, or 97 percent of the time.

Specter's overall party loyalty score since becoming a Democrat -- counting votes both before and after the primary challenge -- is 87 percent. This contrasts with the 44 percent of the time that he broke ranks to side with the Democratic on Contentious Votes while still a member of the Republican Party. He's basically been behaving like a mainline, liberal Democrat.

Notice, however, that I did not say Specter has become a mainline, liberal Democrat. On the one hand, it makes sense that Specter might have been hedging his bets early on after becoming a Democrat, siding with the Republican on a few issues to avoid looking like too much of a craven flip-flopper. He wasn't going to come out with guns blazing the next day with bills to enact single-payer health care and to prosecute George W. Bush for war crimes. He was going to wait until the spotlight was shining a little less brightly, and then begin to vote somewhat routinely with his new party.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/07/since-primary-challenge-specter-voting.html

[tekisui]

1. While that is good, I still hope Sestak kicks his ass.

[Botany]

2. me too

the man is slime ...... Why any women would vote for him after what he did to Anita Hill is beyond me.

BTW He will be 80 in 2010.

[LynneSin]

10. I love Sestak but he has no appeal outside of the Philly market

And Philadelphians love Specter since he is a hometown guy.

[AllentownJake]

3. Specter is a total political animal

I don't think the man has any principles. I hope Joe beats him like a fucking drum.

[berniebern]

4. Yeah. No way a principled man would go from 60% against to 97% in favor?

I've read stats that say he supported GOP line about 60-65% of the time when he was a republican.

Don't get me wrong. It's good that he sold himself, but I have no respect for people without principles. HE might switch again if the Democratic party is in trouble in the future.

[AllentownJake]

5. He will change the moment he gets re-elected

lets not kid ourselves. The past 30 years is the real Arlen Specter.

[bigwillq]

6. Isn't Lieberman around that % too?

:shrug: Both are still scum bags, in my book. :mad:

[saltpoint]

7. While Specter will never be left enough to delight progressives he is

nevertheless shrewd enough to know that Sestak presents a genuine challenge to his Senate seat.

I'm not lightly dismissing Specter's political acumen, but I think Sestak has a real good chance of upending him in that primary.

[saltpoint]

8. So. All you Pennsylvania folks. How do you see this thing playing out?

[ShadowLiberal]

12. As a PAer I think unless his numbers really deteriorate Specter will still win the primary

That analysis did sure open my eyes though to how reactionary Specter votes, I didn't think it was quite that significant.

Still, I think Sestak is going to have an uphill battle, precisely because his base of voters who already knew who he was before this are in the Philadelphia area and it's surrounding suburbs. And Specter's biggest base of support is in the exact same area of the state, he's from Philadelphia.

That's going to make it tougher for Sestak to unseat Specter, they share the same base of voters, and in the rest of the state where Sestak is largely unknown Specter is very well known, which in a way gives him a home field advantage. There's also a hand full of democrats who have been loyal Specter supporters for decades, even when he was still a republican, and there's a number of people who have become democrats recently who helped save him in the GOP primary last time around, a lot of those people are from the Philadelphia area and it's surrounding suburbs. Specter actually sort of dropped a hint a day or two before his party switch to some of those very supporters when he was holding a democrats for Specter fundraiser, someone at the fundraiser said to him that he should become a democrat, to which he replied "well, we'll see about that", which stunned everyone.

Still, it is true that Specter's numbers have been eroding lately (well his general election numbers, his primary numbers haven't been moving that much), if they keep up at the rate they currently are then Sestak has a decent shot probably.

[saltpoint]

13. Thank you for that look into the coming dust-up, Shadow Liberal.

It has the feel of a classic confrontation in some ways.

If you can keep us kind of updated if there's a major shift one way or another, it would be great to hear from you about it. Sestak may face the uphill climb you indicate he does, and that sounds accurate. Specter's been in there since what, the Civil War or something, and I realize it's hard to unseat a sitting Senator.

I hope we keep that seat blue, since the Republican nominee is likely to be a throwback. But it just feels like Sestak is the bluer of the two.

[Honeycombe8]

9. Good. Now let's see a vote for the new healthcare bill. nt

[Arkana]

11. Specter's a whipped dog.

The reason he's doing it is because he was threatened--and have we gotten Specter to vote with us on any MAJOR legislation yet?