Is there a Republican who can beat Obama in 2012 --

[saltpoint]

-- whether or not a significant health care bill is passed?

For the record and to pre-empt and quell hothead shrieking, I personally believe we will have health care reform, that there will be / should definitely be a public option, and further believe that health insurance companies should be vigorously opposed in all settings on grounds that they are greedy reptiles who deserve to die an anguished death in an unspeakable hell.

You are fair if you interpret that as a biased opinion in favor of significant health care reform, and the sooner the better.

But.

The poll question concerns whether you feel any potential Republican candidate can defeat Obama, provided Obama seeks re-election, which I believe and hope he will.

'Yes' indicates you believe one or more Republicans could defeat Obama in 2012;
'No' indicates you do not believe any Republican can defeat Obama in 2012; and
'Other' if you see a different outcome being realized.

[Davis_X_Machina]

1. This country voted for George Bush...

..twice.

Voting "No" flies in the face of the facts, and of recent experience.

[saltpoint]

2. The percentage of people who thought Nixon, Reagan, and both Bushes

were acceptable public servants is, I admit, alarmingly high.

Just the same, this time the voters removed their heads from their posteriors and we got Barack Obama, thank god.

For the 2012 landscape, while I understand that none of us has a crystal ball, I voted 'No' in the poll.

[Arkana]

34. Nixon was smart. Reagan was a decent orator and very charismatic.

Those things can win elections.

I maintain that Nixon could have been--COULD HAVE BEEN--one of the better Presidents of the 20th century without the crippling paranoia he lugged around with him.

[saltpoint]

35. Agree. And as you say, it was crippling.

There was a pervasive darkness to Richard Nixon.

He appeared to slouch over. His always-somber suits appeared to rise up his back and scrunch awkwardly around his shoulders. He looked like the political animal outside that he had become inside, very possibly owing to the intense paranoia and insecurity.

His biographers talk about his being a Quaker. That is a real reach for me. Businessfolk praise the China mission, but not insignificantly, while Nixon was in China clinging champagne glasses, a good number of people were washed away in the Buffalo Creek mining disaster. Nixon basked in the business praise but his administraiton did precious little to restore community to those Appalachian families.

If someone is a president it doesn't mean he or she can't be mentally ill, and I think your assessment of Nixon's paranoia as a crippling element to his personality drove him and ultimately destroyed him politically.

Very good point.

[Arkana]

46. I'll probably get banned for saying this, but I'm actually reading

Conrad Black's "Richard M. Nixon: A Life In Full".

He fascinates me, both as a man and a President, probably because I can't understand what would drive a man to do the things he did while in office.

[saltpoint]

47. We have to be willing to read books on Nixon, just as we read about

anyone who speaks to History.

Alexander fascinates me, despite the large number of his biographers who hate his guts.

Nixon is a tough customer, and you're brave to tackle him. More power to ya.

Throughout the end of his presidency -- maybe the last two years -- I started looking at the public photographs of his wife. Pat seemed to me to be one of the most beaten-down, withdrawn, weary-souled people who ever lived. I wondered what kind of marriage it was that made her face look like that.

I felt terrible for her, past my own political bias against her husband, I mean.

[tammywammy]

111. That book sounds interesting

I may need to pick it up.

[goclark]

76. Diebold voted for GW

[Common Sense Party]

113. Why didn't Diebold vote for McCain?

That's what I can't figure out.

[goclark]

119. There were such overwhelming numbers

from the Democrats and the MSM was pretty much trying to be fair and balanced.

Recall the MSM didn't say a peep about the Mike on the Back of Bush.

They proteccted them the entire time.

This time ~ we blew them out of the water and the machines wouldn't fly.
They are just resting up - they will be back at it.

[rvablue]

124. In 2000, A MAJORITY of Americans voted for Gore, that is an undisputed fact.

It's just that after the Supreme Court decided Florida's electoral votes would go to Bush that he has the numbers to put him over the top.

No one disputes the fact that Gore won the popular vote.

So, voting "no" doesn't fly in the face of facts, it's a quite reasonable opinion, actually, given the much larger margin in electoral votes in 2008, compared to 2000 and 2004.

[asdjrocky]

3. No. If, of course, we have a strong bill.

With a strong bill and an uptick in the economy, there is no way I think he'll lose.

Now that's two big 'ifs', but I plan to be positive. Now, ask me Thursday if I feel the same, lol.

But looking at the pugs now, even with the slanted corporate media, I don't see anyone who could beat him.

[saltpoint]

5. I'm with you, asjdrocky -- he looks strong without feeling "entrenched,"

and the outcome of health care reform seems potentially very good.

I noticed even the usually recalcitrant Ben Nelson this weekend appears to have been persuaded, at least a little, on the merits of a public option.

[GrantDem]

4. Never doubt the stupidity of the electorate.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bill-maher/new-rule-smart-president_b_253996.html

[saltpoint]

6. The electorate has a spotty record but occasionally also we get a

Russ Feingold, a Barbara Boxer, a Nadler, a Baldwin, a Waters.

A character in a Joan Didion novel advises us to play the hand we're dealt and stay in the action.

[freddie mertz]

7. We always have to assume the possibility of the Pubs beating any Democrat.

Be prepared, as they say.

[saltpoint]

8. Granted, it's always a contest, and there are upsets. I voted 'No' in this

poll despite the OP's obvious bias for Obama, because the case for his re-election appears strong.

Also the GOP appears rudderless these days and terribly freaked out about having a capable soul of the other party in the White House.

They yearn for those dead-or-alive terruh terruh terruh days of Geoge Bush wish a couple tube socks in his crotch prancing around on aircraft carriers under "Mission Accomplished" banners.

[d_b]

9. some people say

the president has already promised them the white house in '12. The deal is that 1) they have to be nice to us until then and 2) they have to give us health insurance "reform".

Some people are also saying that the President has already begun inviting potential '12 challengers over to the white house for the "bukkake* the democratic president" jamboree. "In the spirit of Lincoln, we're really going to work hard to milk every last drop" the President added (Some people say).

*if you don't know what that is then don't look it up.

[saltpoint]

11. Some people say that Barack Obama really has no realistic chance of

winning the Iowa caucus in January of 2008.

[Uzybone]

12. is that supposed to be funny?

[d_b]

14. I wish it were

[asdjrocky]

22. So not insightful.

Not funny and crude.

[d_b]

30. yea?

people dying because they can't afford health insurance offends me. Cum? Not so much.

But thanks.

[saltpoint]

49. The "some people" you reference appear amophous. Are you talking

about the media and press pundits, or Beltway insiders quoted in The POST, or someone you ran into in the barber shop, or what?

As for the Right being "nice to us," that appears either not to have been in the arrangement you cite or if it was supposed to have been originally, isn't now. Hate-hosts calling the president "racist" just isn't all that nice, in the opinion of this observer.

Yours may be the first overt reference to "bukkake" I've read on DU, and may I offer the notion that it appears to be off-topic. If you wish you could begin a thread on that topic over in one of the Arts forums, possibly using Burroughs' novels or some of the contemporary German -- yes, German -- painters as a launchpoint.

Shy of that option you are here unrehearsed in the point at hand or otherwise choose not to focus. Certainly the topic at hand is not as scintillating as the one you raise instead. But nevertheless, it's the topic at hand.

Your call, and do wear sneakers.

[d_b]

77. I voted 'other'. n/t

[saltpoint]

78. Hot dog for you.

[Uzybone]

10. No, I do not see one at this point

and thats part of the problem. The opposition is a bunch of clowns.

[saltpoint]

15. The Republicans appear to have felt that Michael Steele would be an

effective chair for them, but he seems a bit, well, wacko to me.

He doesn't seem to be all that helpful to the GOP's chances -- which is entirely fine by me. May he stay on as their chair indefinitely, in fact.

Their rightwing hate hosts aren't helping much either, screaming -- literally screaming -- that the President of the United States is a racist.

And the crop of GOP hopefuls is looking thin, macabre, idiotic, and unfocused, or combinations of those traits. Romney has some bucks, but little else. Huckabee has some Sunday sermon charm, but neither he nor Romney could defeat the hapless John McCain last cycle. Not sure how they'd improve on their performance next time.

[livetohike]

13. No. They are all running around, elbowing each other for the

spotlight. There is not one potential candidate right now who could beat Obama. Who may emerge? I don't think it matters. Once the economy improves, Pres. Obama will be unbeatable.

[saltpoint]

16. Agree. I think Huckabee might be the Pukes' sturdiest chance, although

it remains to be seen whether he can even win the nomination.

Sam Brownback almost knocked him out of contention last time.

Romney's name gets booted about but apart from being able to pay his own way in the primaries, I'm not sure he has enough to offer the electorate compared to Obama. Romney, rich though he be, is just not a very approachable guy. People like Barack Obama. I don't think they like Mitt Romney.

[livetohike]

17. I agree with everything you said here

I think that Huckabee, by taking the job at FOX has hurt his chances though. He will be looked at as a talk show host - not presidential material, imo.

[saltpoint]

18. I would love that outcome.

Huckabee is smart enough to elevate the definition of "Christian" if he wished to. But he evidently is rooting through the propaganda chest trying to find the juiciest things to play down to the rabble.

[Chipper Chat]

19. Tim Pawlenty (if he remains scandal-free).

Maybe Romney, but he would galvanized the left. Condoleeza Rice may be floated by the GOP women.
OFFICIAL TOAST: Palin, Huchabee, Sanford, Ensign, Cheney.

[saltpoint]

21. Your official toast list includes three who are not only toast but scorched

toast. Sanford and Ensign have a marital fidelity issue, Sanford's being an international marital fidelity issue. Wasn't it John Stewart who described Sanford as "a conservative governor with a liberal penis" ?

Cheney is essentially en-coffined. He's a goner.

Palin is so spectacularly stupid, not only because she is, actually, spectacularly stupid, but also because she thinks she is the frontrunner at this hour and destined to be the next president. Not a betting man myself, I agree with you that she belongs on the Toast list.

[saltpoint]

20. One gauge of President Obama's chances might be that there is no one

-- evidently -- in the entire Republican Party who has the wit, or the will, or even the raw interest, in distancing himself or herself from the nutbags.

We all can list the nutbags, but it generally is a list running from Ann Coulter and Michele Bachman to the hate-hosts like Hannity and Beck and Limbaugh.

The media generally and FOX especially also are dishing out the propaganda in generous heaps and are unchallenged, with a few very rare exceptions.

A political party intent on its own survival and advancement would find it self-evident that screeching lies and debasements is not a sustainable political strategy.

That no one has spoken out to distance the Republican Party from the screeching is very telling.

[Sebastian Doyle]

23. Yes, there is a Republican that can beat Obama in 2012: DIEBOLD

"Close" elections can and will be stolen. Obama's actual victory last year was much larger than what the "official" numbers tell you, but the massive turnout was enough to override the fraud.

He will not have that turnout in 2012, if he fails to deliver the change he promised, health care reform being the most obvious example at the moment. If the economy has not truly recovered by then, he may take the blame for that as well, whether or not its fair to blame him for it. So, just like in 2000 and 2004, a Repuke candidate, regardless of how lame, stupid, or psychotic, will end up "winning" by the smallest fraction of a margin, courtesy of electro-fraud "voting" machines.

Unless Obama acts to prevent it. Starting now. With REAL health care reform. And even then, we still need to remove every last one of those god damnable "voting" machines from the planet.

[saltpoint]

28. Close elections in history have been stolen, agreed, but there is now

a significant undercurrent of distrust in the company you reference.

It would please me to see those "voting machines" removed from the planet -- I will sign on to help you with that. I see something like a dozen or so weekends' work with plenty of volunteers from Florida and Ohio in particular, and several packs of explosives under controlled conditions.

Maybe beer and chips afterwards with numerous remarks disparaging Republicans living and dead.

[verges]

33. Didn't I hear that

Diebold sold it's election machine division a week or so ago?


Why, yes I did:

http://www.businessinsider.com/diebold-sells-business-9-2009

[Sebastian Doyle]

37. Yeah, it appears that they did.

Not surprisingly, they sold it to ES&S, the OTHER corrupt "voting" machine company (this being the one formerly run by Chuck Hagel, and responsible for his otherwise unlikely election to the Senate)

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090903-714997.html

[PSzymeczek]

72. Diebold has sold off

it's voting maching business.

[theoldman]

24. Petraeus

[asdjrocky]

26. You've been watching Moran Joe again haven't you?

[saltpoint]

31. What would be kind of fun would be for David Petraeus to

hold a press conference, not leading his intention to the media, in which he announces that he is running for a public office, in his home state and district, for a seat in the U.S. Congress --

-- as a Democrat.

I don't know the man's politics at all.

But that would be another long nail in the Republicans' coffin.

[harkadog]

86. That would be quite a demotion.

[saltpoint]

99. Presidents have returned to the Congress and also to the Supreme Court.

[harkadog]

102. I think Taft was the last one to go to the Supreme Court

And there may have been a president or two go back to Congress in the early 1800s. But history has moved on.

[saltpoint]

103. History usually takes its time, and we haven't even had 50 presidents yet.

One sad feature on the Taft appointment. He was asked by an interviewer to comment on becoming a Supreme Court Justice following his service as President and there was an odd, awkward duration between the question and Taft's response.

The response left the impression that Taft had no recollection of being the president. Perhaps he just disliked that reporter. Perhaps it was an undiagnosed dementia in the days when there were fewer clinical instruments to measure such things. Or maybe it was just an off day.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

88. I've heard rumors about his party affiliation

and I'm not at all sure that he's a Republican.

[saltpoint]

100. It would be splendid if he were a Democrat, or at least one of the

old-style Republicans like John Chafee who was sickened by the Reagan/Bush/Bush takeover of their party.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

107. He at least doesn't seem like a Willaim G. Boykin

FWIW

[Bobbieo]

25. What makes anyone think Obama will choose to run in 2012?

[saltpoint]

29. Covered in the OP. Should he seek re-election, the poll question

kicks in.

[Tippy]

27. Obama can not be beat by anone at this point other than HIMSELF

He is listening to his advisors...and my question is are they listening to "WE THE PEOPLE"

[Phx_Dem]

32. And the 8 people who said yes, will probably vote for the Republican.

[Davis_X_Machina]

36. Not so much 'going to vote Republican' as probably...

...'don't have their heads in the sand'. The Republcans can always win the White House.

Reagan was an unelectable joke, and Bush II was an even more transparent fraud. Together they served 16 years.

The Republicans can always win the White House, in the sense of 'have the capability'.

Their task is greatly aided when the Democrats split, say if a good-sized chunk of the left half of the electorate either stays home in a snit and doesn't vote, or goes chasing after the unicorn of a non-politician politician.

[Douglas Carpenter]

38. certainly unlikely by anyone they would be likely to nominate

The current Republican Party is so dominated by rightwing crazies who genuinely believe that they lost in 2008 because McCain was too liberal.

Rightwing fundamentalist are now by far the most important group within the GOP to satisfy.

I doubt that Mitt Romney will be the nominee. He is a Mormon which is anathema to most fundamentalist Protestants. His personality comes off as phony. Many of the party faithful are highly suspicious of the relative social liberalism he accepted when he was Governor or Massachusetts.

Sarah Palin is washed up, from what I surmise. She has simply upset too many people within the world of GOP operatives. Even most Republicans have recognized that she is self-serving, embarrassingly ignorant and just plain nuts.

I could be wrong, but I personally think Mike Huckabee will probably be the 2012 Republican nominee. He comes off as amiable and appears at least ostensibly as being fairly quick witted. He would satisfy the fundamentalist and social conservative base.

My only fear is that there is always the possibility of a historic accident, such as major problems with the economy or - God Forbid - a terrorist attack that could turn a nonviable rightwing nut into a viable candidate who could win. It is unlikely, but not impossible.

[saltpoint]

39. Agree with your take on Romney. There is a part of him that people

just can't connect with. The creep factor, for lack of a better phrase. And he did sing quite a different tune in Massachusetts against Ted Kennedy than he sang out on the campaign trail in 08.

Agree also with Palin and Huckabee. Palin is a brainless fool. A well-dressed one perhaps, but no less brainless for that. I think she's done for even before she gets going.

If Huckabee takes a look at the landscape and figures he has a shot, he'll go for it and stand the best chance. What will be interesting is if Romney and Palin remain un-nominatable and Huckabee sits it out. I wonder what the GOP will do then?

Run Michael Steele?!

[Laelth]

40. No ... with high confidence.

The Republicans are generally insane, reflecting their rabid base. The Southern Strategy is coming back to bite them, hard. I hope we can capitalize on their weakness. It's the Democratic Party that's worrying me at the moment.

:dem:

-Laelth

[saltpoint]

41. I'd like to continue any strategies that would further isolate the GOP

to an increasingly smaller regional base.

If there has to be a GOP at all, I'd like it in the best case for us to be one that has no national currency. I want to see it continue to oppose stem cell science and gay marriage, even as entire states encourage the first and sanction the second.

At this moment we may not know what's in store 3 or 4 years from now. But it does not seem that the Republicans have any cards to lay down on the table. Michael Steele. Mitch McConnell. Newt Gingrich. All the radio and tv hate-hosts.

They got plenty of nothin' and nothin's got plenty of them.

[Laelth]

42. This essay is very insightful.

"What to do when your party sucks."
http://www.commondreams.org/view/2008/11/24

Green makes a strong case that the Republican Party is stuck. They have been immobilized by their base which wants them to become even more conservative. Mainstream America is shifting to the left, and the Republican Party can't follow the middle for fear of alienating their base.

I am not worried about them at the moment, and I don't think we need to do anything to marginalize them. Their own base is killing them.

:dem:

-Laelth

[saltpoint]

43. I appreciate that link and will read the piece by Green.

Also I endorse your observation that the far-Right kooks in the Republican ranks are driving their whole party into the wilderness.

[Laelth]

66. I thoroughly enjoyed that essay ... a bit of good news in a rather bleak political environment. n/t

:dem:

-Laelth

[saltpoint]

106. Laelth, I did get to that essay and agree with you that it is a real

good ride. Green is a great performer in addition to getting so many key details.

Have to agree with his assessments of the GOP and its general condition. One thing that tipped me off to Green's savvy was his glance at Snowe, Collins, Lugar -- that bunch. They are Republicans but they are not stupid or "suicidal," politically, and they must wince and turn beet red every time some yahoo like John Cornyn opens his mouth.

Not to mention the hate-hosts on tv and radio.

Great read, and I hope people in the thread will give your link a click and enjoy themselves.

It would even make a good thread of its own.

[Laelth]

115. Glad you enjoyed the essay. Green is very savvy.

The essay's a little old. I am sure it had its own thread here at one point. That's probably how I found it.

:dem:

-Laelth

[SemiCharmedQuark]

44. Other: Maybe.

It's very early to make predictions.

[saltpoint]

45. Nonsense. It's never too early to prognosticate.

I've been a prognosticator since I was 11 or 12 years old.

It's fun!

[SemiCharmedQuark]

50. Ok, then I vote for Stephen Colbert's financial advisor

Gorlock

[saltpoint]

51. Colbert is a good man. Very likely his advisors are as well.

Rasslin' the nom from Obama will be an uphill climb though.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

52. He'll run as a Republican

And finally build us the moat of fire stocked with fire proof alligators to protect us from Mexico. America Deserves This!

[saltpoint]

56. I would like to see "the fence" come down right now and as a 10-year

project, have the U.S. and Mexico and Central and South America build instead an elevated international sculpture museum, running lengthwise from a point in Canada to near the bottom of South America.

A bullet train and a museum.

Specific sculpture from all the nations of this western hemisphere atop and an extensive Museum of the Americas inside on either side of the construction with a bullet train running from Canada to Chile.

China has its Great Wall. Let's build a connecting museum of culture for our hemisphere that flat-and-away exceeds it and which would instantly rate as a wonder of the modern world.

Museum with standing exhibits and new exhibits on either side. Big-gesture sculptures atop. A bike trail and hemispheric bullet train inside.

[saltpoint]

81. For those who like fast choo-choos, this post is now its own thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x6480605

Thanks.

[varelse]

48. Is there a Republican who won't beat himself (or herself) in 2012?

Seriously, will Obama even be the challenge for these folks? Rush Limbaugh is their unofficial leader, Micheal Steele is the figurehead, Sarah Palin is a favorite, and for the "serious" candidates they have a choice between Mitt Romney and Bobby Jindal.

The Republicans will have to work pretty hard just to find a candidate who doesn't do most of Obama's work for him :shrug:

[saltpoint]

54. Love it. Palin's just not in the ballgame, IMO. She is clueless and appears

clueless. She didn't even have the attention span to finish one term as Alaska's governor. Which isn't to say that GOP primary voters might not be of a mind to nominate a flirtatous dolt.

Pawlenty, as another poster here has mentioned, might have a chance. He seems to me at first glance to be veep material for them, although then again, they've nominated some of the worst people in history in just our lifetimes, nevermind people like Harding. So given that the competition is even worse, Pawlenty's star could rise.

Romney has loads of cash, but as I've mentioned before, it wasn't enough to buy him the nomination against a hapless fool like John McCain. It was all Romney could do to fend of Huckabee. Who knows how Romney would do versus only Huckabee and no frontrunner? But if he couldn't rise over a fool like McCain, rich as Romney is, I don't see how he could rise against Huckabee alone.

They may have to drag someone out of the rookie ranks and put them at the top of the ticket as a prep for 2016. Maybe Ryan of Wisconsin or some other Ken-doll kook of the Far Right.

[varelse]

59. They'll need to do a much MUCH better job of vetting the rookie

Wasn't Sanford on their "short list" until the jaunt to Argentina?

Oh, and Pawlenty would get my vote if I were a Republican, but sadly (for them!) he has NO CHANCE. The excellent op ed linked upthread explains why.

Whenever I even try to put myself into Republican or Conservative shoes, I feel like someone has swapped them out for Spanish boots. I wouldn't want to be a Republican for anything right now. Thinking about it actually makes me (a little) sorry for them.

[saltpoint]

61. You're right -- Sanford was on McCain's short list. But Sanford has

the self-generated difficulty of keeping his horse in the barn, as it were.

And it is a long-distance horse, at that, roaming all the way to Argentina!

Bye-bye, horsey!

Sanford will be lucky to keep his job in South Carolina. I think you're right -- his chances now for the White House are looking meager.

Pawlenty might be more convincing if he didn't look and sounds like a high school sophomore running for class Treasurer. He seems awfully ... something. "Not leader-like." As if he still has to ask permision to use the family car.

They may just dig Bob Dole up and run him. Is Dole dead? He must be. He LOOKED dead on ABC this morning.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

87. Pawlenty is currently out in front shrieking about Obama's speech to schoolchildren

While that, of course, may play well with the fundies/bigots, it's probably not going to appear very "moderate" let alone sane to most people. It just makes him look like a nut and most people have absolutely no problem with Obama giving a speech to schoolchildren just like former Presidents from Pawlenty's party have done, AFAIK without any controversy.

[saltpoint]

91. I heard a clip of Pawlenty with John King. King pointed out that Pawlenty's

own wife addresses school children, so why not President Obama.

Pawlenty tried to shuffle his way through the shrimp cocktail but he slipped and fell. He didn't sound terribly presidential.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

96. Not very good

at trying to explain or spin their hypocrisy and double standards when it comes to Democrats, are they? I wish more people would confront them on it and explain the phenomenon of "IOKYAR"

[saltpoint]

98. Yes. I was a bit surprised that it was John King. He's not ordinarily

"our" interviewer, but he seemed to do pretty well with Pawlenty.

[iceman66]

53. Too early to tell.

Remember that no one would have considered Obama a serious contender in 2005.

[saltpoint]

57. True about Obama in 2005 but a sitting president in some part must

assess his chances at keeping his job.

I believe Obama's chances for keeping his job are very, very good.

Not claiming to know the future. Just some harmless hunching.

I'm a huncher from way back times.

[iceman66]

83. I don't see any of the 'known' contenders beating Obama in 2012

unless he screws up really bad (worse than what people are complaining about now).

[polichick]

55. The question I'm thinking about: Is there a progressive Dem who can beat him in 2012? nt

[saltpoint]

58. That's part of the job of holding the fort. Carter, when asked by a

reporter if he thought Ted Kennedy might mount a primary challenge in 1980, quipped, "If Ted Kennedy runs, I'll whip his ass."

Told this, Ted Kennedy said, "I'm sure the president meant, 'I'll whip inflation now.'"

Carter prevailed in that nomination challenge but was defeated by Reagan by landslide proportions. Sometimes the electorate does its own share of ass-kicking.

And a rotten can of worms it is that houses the idea that Ronald W. Reagan was a fitting man for the presidency over EITHER Carter or Kennedy.

Technically, Obama had challenges from the left in the open primary in 1968. Any of the final 8 candidates we had would have been newly nominated for the presidency, and some (Gravel, Kucinich, and Edwards) took more-left positions than others, although of those three, only Edwards made any headway at all (second in Iowa) but after that, none of those three gained any traction. HClinton was the only surviving competitor and she was nowhere near as left-leaning as Gravel, Kucinich, or Edwards. Gravel was the most left, certainly, with Kucinich a very respectable second, with Edwards' health care and labor platforms being his chief left issues.

A more-left Democrat challenging Obama this time would have to undertake the labor of defeating an incumbent same-Party president. That's not a common thing. It will take a pile of cash and a very effective groundswell of sentiment against the incumbent.

It has happened before where the groundswell, if not exactly the cash, was there. Gene McCarthy and Robert Kennedy rose in the groundswell of anti-war fervor to drive LBJ out of office. Obama, at least now, remains quite a bit more popular than Lyndon Johnson.

So it could happen. But the landscape right now anyway doesn't seem to favor it.

[polichick]

63. Good to review the history - thanks. I can see the same people who worked...

...to elect Obama deciding to work for a truly progressive candidate ~ many I worked with are pretty disillusioned. We'll see what happens. I still hold out hope that Obama will get it in time.

[LWolf]

114. In 1968? I was only 8 years old then, and Obama was younger. nt

[Davis_X_Machina]

60. Kucinich.

This is DU -- the answer is always Kucinich.

Now what was the question again?

[polichick]

62. I like Kucinich, but I'm thinking Howard Dean. nt

[saltpoint]

64. That would make quite a story.

Dean is qualified to be president and is at least as impressive now as he was in 2004 in the primaries.

A good number of our friends were "empowered by Howard" in that primary race.

Dean would maybe go for it if Obama were to signal he was not seeking re-election. Then I think the field opens up. Dean, in that scenario, has a better chance, IMO, than others.

I just don't think he would challenge a popular sitting president whom he helped elect with that 50-state full-court press.

[polichick]

65. I don't know - Obama took a lot from Dean's campaign...

...even borrowing the "You have the power message" (changed to "Yes we can"), and yet he has dissed him at every turn. It makes me sick to watch Rahm take credit for our wins instead of Dean's 50-state strategy. Why should Dean hesitate? I worked for him the first time and I'd be thrilled to do it again if Obama doesn't soon remember who elected him.

[saltpoint]

67. Well, I'd be intersted to see what Dean himself has to say in a year or so.

I don't believe Dean or any other Democrat -- Warner, Bayh, Kucinich, Schweitzer, etc. -- has the national appeal that Obama has.

As a matter of pure logistics, seeking the White House is a huge undertaking. An open primary for the nomination is one thing. But taking on an incumbent is another.

I don't perceive that enough Democrats are dissatisfied with President Obama that they would really entertain a primary challenge. If a series of down-spiralling events occur, or if the economy gets significantly worse, or some unforeseen international disaster falls, then maybe the climate would shift.

At the moment, I think it's Obama's to lose.

A concurrent post on DU is interesting:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x6480273

[polichick]

68. I agree that we have a ways to go before it would make sense...

Thanks for the link - that looks interesting.

[saltpoint]

69. polichick, thanks for this exchange. It was instructive and interesting

what you contributed to the thread, and I think what I liked best was how civil you were with me in presenting your thoughts.

I'm the beneficiary here. Thanks.

[polichick]

71. My pleasure! :)

[IndianaGreen]

70. This poll is in bad taste

We are fighting for Obama's soul right now.

[saltpoint]

74. If you read through the thread, I think you'll find that the tilt is

strongly in favor of the President by poster generally and the OP especially.

[GivePeaceAchance]

73. It's a very good question and just thinking about it makes me a lot calmer.

[donheld]

75. Don't take things for granted.

[saltpoint]

80. I won't. But part of the fun of politics is speculation.

[kenny blankenship]

79. That's a long ways off but I would worry abt Dems pissing people off so much

through their inaction and venality, that Romney could sneak in with his "I'm a Reasonable Guy (who happens to wear Magic Underwear) Act"

After all, the way they've bungled so far and abandoned any pretense of healthcare reform, Romneycare is the very best that Dems will be able to do on insurance reform, and that's assuming everything here on out goes well. So the Mittster will have been validated by the combined forces of Obama and Congressional Democrats. They can no longer say "oh ROMNEY??? He's off the map - you can't risk him getting in and doing all kinds of Crazy Mormon shit!" Romney will say Thanks for implementing my plan, now step back because I know how to do it even better.

Watch out: suburban upper middle class folk do respond to Romney, and they were a group that split their vote this last time, helping Obama win with urban districts, whereas in 2004 they went strongly for the Republican helping Bush to carry the day with rural districts. Usually the suburbs vote with the rural areas which means the Republican wins. They could easily revert to form next time.

[notesdev]

82. At this rate

you might be better off asking if there's a Republican who can beat Biden in 2012.

[saltpoint]

93. Obama seems to be in a sturdy position and he remains very popular.

[AncientAtBirth666]

84. For the record.....

.....Mitt Romney scares the absolute, absolute hell out of me.

[saltpoint]

97. Agree. The creepazoid factor kicks in with that guy.

for all his money and movie matinee looks, he was unable to defeat McCain in the 08 primary season and had fits fending off Huckabee.

I don't think Mitt's money is a magic wand for him, and I think he's going to have trouble trying to put together a string of first-place finishes.

[AncientAtBirth666]

117. Re:

Well here's why I'm scared of Mitt Romney:

He almost won the nomination in '08, and a lot of people see him in retrospect as the candidate they should have nominated. He's extremely charismatic and full of passion. He doesn't make a whole lot of fuck ups. Physically he resembles Reagan A LOT. He plays the "don't apologize for America" card a lot, and Americans respond really well to politicians telling them that it's a virtue to be indulgent (Reagan built his legacy on this).

Basically, in these days when Americans are scared of the evil socialist negro in the White House, Romney seems like exactly the kind of all-American 1950s white dude that a lot of the country want to rally behind. In the '08 election, it's true that Obama ran an awesome campaign, but it was accented by the fact that the other ticket consisted of a bumbling old coot and an airheaded lightweight, neither of whom could open their mouths without saying something completely ridiculous, and nobody on the other side could take it seriously (and even still, the victory wasn't within what I consider to be a safe enough margin). McCain didn't unite the Retardlicans, whereas I see Romney as being able to do that, and in a climate where significant chunks of the population think that Obama is a Marxist Nazi, that's a really scary prospect for 2012.

[saltpoint]

120. Agree that some percentage or other of the population is frightened

by having n Afro-American in the White House, but in truth the joint seems to be holding steady.

This Obama guy seems to have it together.

I'm not dismissing the intensity of the hatred, but only saying that I don't think it pervades the voting public, that it's a relatively small percentage of folks out there tea-bagging and squawking about "socialism" and so forth.

Romney could step into a void in his own party, especially if Huckabee's private polling indicates that Obama's re-election is close to a lock. Huckabee says, Well, then, let's not dump treasure overboard, and let's keep the lucrative FOX tv deal going instead, make a little money.

Pawlenty and Romney and Palin then kind of emerge as "frontrunners," with Pawlenty boring the crap out of everybody, Romney creeping out the fundies over his being Mormon, and Palin crashing and burning in a blaze of stupidity the likes of which the nation has rarely, rarely seen.

[mayya]

85. Also the option of a Third Party from the right or left.

It is a long way to 2012. A third-party candidate could have a chance if either side feels betrayed.

[KinMd]

89. Bachmann-Beck 2012

Theme song - Crazy on You by Heart

[saltpoint]

92. I think we could save some money if the GOP nominates those two.

The sad part is, the GOP just might.

[akbacchus_BC]

90. Well that asshole Geoge Bush got elected or selected twice, what's the

point of your poll! After 8 years you assholes posting polls!

[saltpoint]

94. Whoa. We usedta be pals, akbacchus_BC.

The posts here tilt toward Obama generally or strongly, and my comments are very strong for Obama.

[Jennicut]

95. With the current crop of losers they got? No.

Only one that stands out is Romney and his waffling and flip flopping will be easy to counter. Should we show up at the DNC in 2012 with flip flops like the morans if old Slickie is nominated? LOL.

[saltpoint]

101. If Romney is nominated, it might be lots of fun to mail several

hundred thousand rubber flip-flops to GOP headquarters.

[Jennicut]

104. Would serve the idiots right to get a taste of their childish treatment

but I don't know if I can bring myself to stoop to their level.

[saltpoint]

105. LOL! You're not to be blamed. A CONTORTIONIST probably couldn't get

as twisted or as low as the hate-hosts and some of the wackier Congresscritters.

[Becky72]

108. It's too soon to tell

1-) We don't know how the economy is going to be in 2012.

2-) Sometimes politicians come out of nowhere. Obama came out of nowhere and nobody expected him to even participate in the Presidential Elections 3 years before he announced his intention. A Republican nobody can come out of nowhere and win it. Who knows. It's just too soon to tell.

[saltpoint]

123. No one's calling for "your final answer."

Part of the zing to politics is prognostication.

Nobody ever went blind from prognostication.

[treestar]

109. I refuse to consider 2012 right now

In 2004, I could not have predicted a single damn thing about 2008.

[saltpoint]

121. I don't think it's your fault, though, treestar. The landscape changed

very swiftly and dramatically from 2006's late months to 2008's first month.

Giuliani and HClinton led handily and convincingly for all of 2007.

My own predictions were way off-target.

The subtext of the poll is to establish that a sitting president, even one presiding over a strained economy, will be hard to beat.

[RidinMyDonkey]

110. Bobby Jindal is probably their best bet

He's pretty much a mumbling idiot. We're safe for 2012

[saltpoint]

122. Yep. Jindal's not appreciably worse than most of the others who

are possible contenders for the GOP nom.

On the other hand when someone like Jindal is even relatively competitive, I'd say the party in which he's competitive is in trouble.

[Common Sense Party]

112. Of course. They control the voting machines.

I'm still trying to figure out why they let Obama get elected.

[Freddie Stubbs]

116. The election will be won or lost on the economy

[niceypoo]

118. A Bachmann - Palin ticket would be unstoppable

http://palin-bachmann-2012.com/