Tomorrow's Speech By Obama

[MannyGoldstein]

What will be the one-sentence synopsis of tomorrow's speech to Congress?

[Robb]

1. Allow me to go on record as having voted for the first option. nt

[hlthe2b]

2. Aything less than "robust" public option (sans triggers, etc.)

is meaningless, IMHO (unless of course they were to pull out single payer)

[DJ13]

3. Sadly, other

King Crimson "Epitaph"

The wall on which the prophets wrote
Is cracking at the seams.
Upon the instruments of death
The sunlight brightly gleams.
When every man is torn apart
With nightmares and with dreams,
Will no one lay the laurel wreath
As silence drowns the screams.

Between the iron gates of fate,
The seeds of time were sown,
And watered by the deeds of those
Who know and who are known;
Knowledge is a deadly friend
When no one sets the rules.
The fate of all mankind I see
Is in the hands of fools.

Confusion will be my epitaph.
As I crawl a cracked and broken path
If we make it we can all sit back
And laugh.
But I fear tomorrow Ill be crying,
Yes I fear tomorrow Ill be crying.

[MannyGoldstein]

4. So We'll Be Starless and Bible Black? nt

[DJ13]

5. Beats a plague of locusts I guess!

[MannyGoldstein]

6. Is that a King Crimson reference?

If so, you lost me.

[DJ13]

8. No, never was a Crimson fan

I was joking about your seemingly religious post (didnt know its significance), nothing more.

I found the King Crimson quote on a different board, thought it expressed my current sentiments.

Sorry!

[ruggerson]

7. Manny, surely you realize

if a deal has already been cut with the Blue Dogs, part of it is to give Obama cover to make a strong stand for the public option in the speech to give himself political cover.

Any smart politician would do that.

[MannyGoldstein]

10. So Your Guess Is That This Will Be "Something Else is OK"

with a side order of Sturm und Drang?

That's my guess too. Obama's trying to cover the left cheek of his butt, but we'll be sold out.

[IndianaGreen]

9. It could be 'public option or bust' or it could be BOHICA

I hope for the former, but fear the latter.

[bigwillq]

11. Public Option or bust

Single-Payer, actually, but hopefully the PO can lead to that. Anything less isn't reform.

[Joe Bacon]

12. I don't want to sing "Happy Trails"

But if he goes for this, I give up...

[quantass]

13. Didnt we already find out that he's going to say its Essential BUT he's open for other ideas

It was already mentioned by several sources and hinted by axelrod and gibbs that the PO will be mentioned as essential but he will not demand it.

So i am not afraid of not getting a public option...The fear is having it killed via including a Trigger. That essentially is like not having a PO at all.

Watching how this game is being played and seeing what he did for the bank bailouts my guess is the WH wants to appease the left AND the right (in other words, win the political war in WH but not so much for the American people) so they will allow the Public Option but they will also include the trigger to make the right (and people like Leberman and Blue Dogs) happy since it will kill the PO. The administration would then have their victory by saying they have the PO but really in the end it is nothing.

I really am crossing my fingers that this is not how it turns out because that would really suck. However, if he comes out today and says he will veto a bill that does not include a strong public opton (no trigger attached) then he is AMAZING! But signs dont point that way.

We will see.

[debbierlus]

14. Lip service to public option with no demand for it

He doesn't want to piss off the majority of the country (the base is the majority of the country who voted for real health reform), so he will outline why he supports the policy and basically reiterate what he has said in the past about it. However, there will be no line in the sand with this - no absolute must....Obama is threading the needle here. He has to come across as if he wants the public option, but he can't stand up for it to the point where it is an absolute demand, so when he throws it and under the bus, he can say, I wanted it, I tried, just couldn't do it. Sorry.

He will leave room for compromise and new ideas. Stressing the areas of agreement (mandating the broken system that is the private insurance nightmare in which we live)....

I predict capitualation to the insurance companies with some nauseating statement about how it will be fair to them and the American people and that the insurance companies have to give a little.

Then, he will stress that we have never been this close to passing health care reform (insurance reform, I don't know which phrase he will use). So, he will stress that it has to be done now. He will continue to state he wants to work with both sides, and maybe state that more important is to get 'something' done.

It will be eloquently worded and smoothly delivered. But, ultimately hollow.

In sum, no demand for a robust public option. Lots of kneeling at the feet of the insurance company (got to fair with the profiteering leeches who provide no health care service).

The trigger will be the ultimate compromise and demise of a real public option. He, of course, won't say that tonight, but that is where this is going. It will be touted as a means of oversight down the road, in the future...if they don't shape up. And, like the trigger with Medicare Part D, it is empty and won't be pulled.

This could be a LBJ or FDR moment, if he wanted it.

It won't be.

[Meshuga]

16. I hope you are wrong

I am not saying you are wrong but I hope Obama surprises you. If he doesn't surprise you tonight with a demand for a public option then I can officially say that I am disappointed with him.

[debbierlus]

18. People here will make the case that since he said he wanted it, it means he will fight for it

He has been saying he wants it all along...

But, that is not the question. The question is whether he will fight for it, demand it, rally the country around advocating for it. I predict a lot of threads praising Obama's speech because he will state the option is a good idea to bring down costs, not understanding that is just empty political rheoteric without a cry for citizen activism to ensure a public option and a passionate argument for why it is a MUST.

I believe Obama is trying hold off the left (that would be majority of us) fury to slime this bill through before we can effectively organize for real health reform. In fact, the public option has been a fantastic diversion for real health care reform because it has basically stymied all discussion of the true solution - single payer.

The devil will be in the details.

They keep saying things like 'on the table' and 'still believes it is a good idea'...Those phrases are meaningless.

If Obama truly intends on fighting for the public option, he will use this to rally the country around it, he will rally his base to fight for it, and he will be very clear that this is the heart of the bill.

Look for a call to a fight, if he indeed stands behind the public option.

If the emphasis is placed on getting a bill above everything else becasue we are 'so close'. Watch out. If he uses the phrase 'perfect being the enemy of the good', dig the grave for the public option.

[Meshuga]

20. Exactly,

It is not news if he comes out in support a public option since he has been in support of it all along. It will be different, however, if he comes out demanding that a robust public option be part of health care reform. We had time for debate but the other side didn't want to have a sane debate on health care what is changing now?

We need leadership from Obama but if he cannot provide leadership now then when should we expect it? You are right, this could be his LBJ or FDR moment but there is a huge risk of him being in a class of his own as an ineffective president who only signed half-assed bills into law that preserves the status quo and wastes an opportunity for real reform. And all this because he was trying to appease to those who want to keep the status quo as opposed to actually doing what those in the majority who voted for reform expect him to do.

[flaminbats]

21. but the President doesn't have a line item veto..

if he used it against a public option, passed by Congress..then I would blame Obama for not passing a public option.

if Congress passed a public option, and Obama signed it..I would give both Obama and Congress credit for turning the public option into reality.

but since Obama doesn't have a line item veto..I will only blame Obama if he vetoes legislation with a public option, if he signs a budget into law that cuts a public option, or if he stops other positive reforms by vetoing them because there was no public option included.

[flaminbats]

15. he shouldn't pull another veto threat..

Clinton threatened to veto any legislation that didn't include an 80% employer mandate and 20% individual mandate. If Clinton had been willing to compromise on those percentages, he probably could of won the votes of some Republicans like John Chaffee and Arlen Spector. If that had happened, Congress would probably be talking about single-payer now!!

all or nothing isn't the solution, I support the public option..but don't let it kill other reforms that could pass and result in some net improvements.

[debbierlus]

17. Mandated private insurance with no competition to bring down prices is not a net improvement

This is the private insurance industry we are talking about -

They stand on the brink of having millions of new mandated customers and no competition.

They have been key in bankrupting the country and now, the solution is going to be to mandate we all buy their defective and corrupt product.

That is not a net improvement.

It is a disaster.

[flaminbats]

19. I pay more than $7,000 a year just for COBRA!!

the only thing that will HURT me more is inaction from Congress.

the health care alliances in Clinton's plan would have lowered premiums, outlawed discriminatory actions against those with preexisting conditions, and would have helped small businesses and low income workers pay their share of the premiums with revenue raised from a higher cigarette tax.

IMO a plan passed with a mandate is needed, otherwise only those with medical problems would buy insurance..the young and healthy would only pay premiums when they get sick! But we need a mandate, we need the same health care benefits now available to all federal employees, and we must end all discrimination against the sick and uninsured.

If LBJ had not passed Medicare and Medicaid..or had made it voluntary, we wouldn't even be discussing a universal public option today..but if LBJ had demanded that Medicare was open to everyone, it probably wouldn't of passed even in a Democratic Congress.

We need to go after Republicans like Chambliss and Alexander, not Democrats and moderates who are willing to work with Obama for some necessary improvements. I think this bill will put limits on how much insurance companies can cut benefits and raise premiums, IMO that would mean net improvement!

[Name removed]

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