Connecticut's Dodd Trails Potential GOP Foe by 10

[ccharles000]

Longtime Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd, tarnished by last year's financial blow-up, continues to struggle as he prepares for a reelection bid in 2010.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone poll finds that Republican challenger Rob Simmons leads Dodd 49% to 39% in an early look at next year’s potential match-up. Five percent (5%) say they’d prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are not sure.

While Simmons, a former congressman, is the strongest early challenger to the Democratic incumbent, there are several other Republicans in the running. Dodd finds himself essentially even with state Senator Sam Caligiuri, former U.S. Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley and Peter Schiff, the high-profile president of Euro Pacific Capital. In each of those match-ups, Dodd earns between 40% and 43% of the vote while the Republicans all fall in the same range.

Typically, when an incumbent polls below 50%, they are considered potentially vulnerable. Dodd certainly falls into that category.

Dodd is viewed favorably by 40% of voters statewide and unfavorable by 59%. Those figures, weak for a long-term incumbent, include just 10% with a Very Favorable opinion and 39% with a Very Unfavorable view.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/connecticut/election_2010_connecticut_senate_race

[rockymountaindem]

1. I think he should retire, unfortunately

It doesn't look to me like he can win, and we definitely need to keep up our momentum and not give the Republicans any opportunity to say that people are turning against the Democrats.

[still_one]

2. I have lost a lot of respect for Connecticut after what they did to Lamont /nt

[wroberts189]

4. We tried .. we made him the Dem canidate...

But then Lie-berman ran as independent with republican support (they ran a nobody they knew would never get any votes)

[still_one]

5. It is the Democrats in Connecticut who have a problem, A lot of those

people voted for lieberman instead of lamont

[wroberts189]

6. Yes ..he tricked a lot of Dems and got the pub vote as well.

This is a very weird state. I moved here from Mass 4 years ago and its like moving back in time.

[still_one]

20. I would like to think that they have learned their lesson, but I am not so sure /nt

[Jennicut]

19. For Connecticut...hey we have tools that live here too. But a lot of us worked our butts off for

Lamont.

[still_one]

22. Of course, and I would never minimize that. However, I was very disappointed when enough

Democrats in the state didn't vote for Lamont

Hey, I am disappointed in a lot of things that happen in California where I am from also

Things aren't as progressive as they used to be, that is for sure

[bluestateguy]

3. It's a Rasmussen Poll

which is about as valuable as toilet paper that grinds on your ass.

This should not have even been posted.

[tritsofme]

13. Exactly, Rasmussen polls are garbage.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/final_rasmussen_poll_results_presidential_election

[bluestateguy]

14. Indeed they are

I see right past their tactics of juicing their numbers for the whole campaign season to favor Republicans and create phony momentum, and then "adjusting" their polling models to get a more accurate number in the closing 48 hours of the campaign. Why? Because it's the final poll that is recorded against the actual results to measure the pollsters' accuracy.

I see right through it.

[tritsofme]

16. Well I suppose that is one way to conveniently dismiss poll number you don't like.

They've been the best around since 2004, so they must be doing something other than fixing everything up for the last week.

This looks just like the Quinnipiac one from July.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1353

[karynnj]

7. Those numbers are awful

I hope that he can regain some trust. He opted to keep the chair of Banking, rather than take HELP - which really surprised me. He spoke of wanting to write some laws dealing with regulation. If seem as a sincere effort, that could counteract the very stories hurting him. (I had thought when he let Kerry have SFRC, it was because he anticipated getting HELP)

[ShadowLiberal]

8. Considering it's Rasmussen this is probably an improvement for Dodd if he's only down by 10

Seriously, wasn't he down by like 15% months ago, with most polls putting his opponent over the 50% mark?

And Rasmussen has had some very wacky poll numbers lately that tend to favor the GOP quite a bit more then any other polls on the same thing do. One of their polls Nate Silver looked at had them polling a group that trusted republicans more then democrats on every issue, even stuff like social security that have historically favored us, and that we've always held a lead in even in the worst of times in the last 8 years.

[Suich]

9. I'd listen to Nate Silver, way before I'd consider Rasmussen.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[Seen the light]

26. 538 has Dodd as the most vulnerable member of the Senate

Check the rankings for 2010. The most vulnerable seats are two seats held by retiring Republicans, but right at #3 most vulnerable is Chris Dodd's seat.

[Yavin4]

10. It's All About the 2010 Economy

All Dems for 2010 are dependent on an improving economy next year. If the UE rate is falling and the economy is seen as improving, then all incumbent Dems will be safe.

If the economy continues decline, then Dem incumbents will be in major trouble.

[TheCowsCameHome]

11. Considering CT went for Joe the Weasel, nothing surprises me.

Dodd should step aside and let Lamont have-at Rob Sumone or whatever his name is.

[Davis_X_Machina]

12. CT and CO are gone. AR is in trouble. Castle could win DE...

...if he runs. On 1/4/11 the Senate could easily be 53 D - 2I - 45 R.

[romantico]

15. As a CT Resident

I was disgusted Lieberman was re-elected. I wish Lamont would go for Dodd's seat.

[KingFlorez]

17. I highly doubt any of those will be gone

It's far to early and the Republicans haven't done anything that would even help them pick up seats.

[Davis_X_Machina]

18. There will be a Democratic primary in CO...

...and if it turns ugly, and the losers stay home, Bennett's in trouble. The track record for appointed senators is not good. Cf. Harris Wofford, D-PA

Dodd hasn't been above %50 this year, perceived ethics problems, and left the state for 10 months to run for President, which was resented at the time. And one of his challengers has more money than God.

Lincoln's getting primaried from the right in AR -- those votes go Republican instead of coming home in the general. Arkansas is one of only a handful of states that got more red in the last cycle.

Castle has a better than even-money chance of winning DE, provided he decides to run. He's known, he's a non-loony, and his likely opponent is Beau Biden, and while the state may love the old man, they may not love nepotism.

Worth watching also is WV. Byrd is fabulously old, and while I don't wish the man ill, that seat could open at any time, and WV is no longer a reliably blue, union-voter state -- it's more 'East Kentucky' than 'West Virigina'.

A similar opening in HI, with two very elderly senators, is a real possibility, and while Inouye outpolls sitting GOP governor Linda Lingle, in an open seat race she's a real threat.

If a throw-the-bums-out wave develops, 53-2-45 may be one or two seats too optimistic.

For no other reason, stuff like HCR and ACES has to happen now. Waiting for the perfect bill will mean no bill at all.

[rockymountaindem]

23. I highly doubt we will lose in Colorado

You forgot to mention that the Republicans are in the same position as the Democrats but with more problems. They also have a primary that is more likely to turn ugly than ours (because I just don't see Romanoff getting in the mud). What's more is that both of their candidates are really flawed. Penry is the type of far-right ideologue which has not done well in CO over the past decade. He wanted to reject stimulus money and he was photographed with Michelle Malkin at a "tea party" on stage with that dude holding an Obama sign with a swastika on it. McInnis was a lobbyist right after he got out of office, is tied to the least-populated part of the state and has that lurking issue about the cancer charity he promised to open but mysteriously did not and kept the money to himself (I think that was him).

I think the CO race will tilt back in our favor.

[Aramchek]

21. he will win. again.

so will Obama.

[Robbins]

24. Dodd

Like Nate Silver says he Is our most Dem seat however the election Is over a year away.Get the
economy recovering more and It will help Dodd.Don't forget the Obama factor.He according to RAS has
a 59 percent approval In CT,and It needs to pointed out Simmons will vote aginst the enitre Obama Agenda.

Health Care passing and Improving Economy helps dems In non Southern parts of the country.If Obama
In the fall of 2010 has approval In the 50's Republicans will have trouble.

[rox63]

25. Dodd has dared to piss off the insurance industry, which is big in CT

Hartford, CT is one of the centers of the insurance industry. By supporting Kennedy's call for the public option, he has probably angered the insurance industry execs and lobbyists. That may be part of the reason he's in trouble.