Hawaii Hiker
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Tue Sep-15-09 08:21 PM
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When you see Obama's approval ratings polls, which one (pollster) do you think is best? |
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Anytime Rasmussen or the even worse Zogby releases a presidential approval poll, I don't take it seriously, as both organizations are run by Republican hacks....And I won't even glance at any FAUX Noise polls for very obvious fucking reasons.....
I still view the NBC/WSJ, CBS/NYT, & ABC/Washington Post, polls as the best...
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Hosnon
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Tue Sep-15-09 08:23 PM
Response to Original message |
1. Rasmussen seems at least consistent, even if they are not accurate. |
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Which leads me to believe that its methods are not entirely wrong; its simply missing something in its technique.
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scheming daemons
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Tue Sep-15-09 08:40 PM
Response to Reply #1 |
4. Rasmussen only polls "likely voters" |
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....
and he defines them as
older whiter more conservative
If you're under 45, he considered you less likely to vote.
That's why he was so wrong in 2008, until the final week when he adjusted his numbers to show an "Obama surge".
He did that so he could get the election right... which is the only poll that people pay attention to.
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MadBadger
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Tue Sep-15-09 08:35 PM
Response to Original message |
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The gallup tracking poll has had his disapproval from 37-44 and approval from 51-58 for the past few months. I agree that his approval numbers are in the middle of all that.
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scheming daemons
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Tue Sep-15-09 08:38 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
3. Yep. Gallup has been doing it for decades and has always been accurate and unbiased. |
Captain Hilts
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Tue Sep-15-09 09:19 PM
Response to Reply #3 |
6. They're a bit sloppy with how they balance their polling sample, so their |
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surveys often have wider amplitudes in swings.
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Captain Hilts
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Tue Sep-15-09 09:17 PM
Response to Original message |
5. John Zogby is a Democrat from Utica, NY. His brother is James Zogby who |
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Edited on Tue Sep-15-09 09:18 PM by Captain Hilts
fights for rights and respect for Arabs living in the US.
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Hawaii Hiker
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Tue Sep-15-09 09:24 PM
Response to Reply #5 |
7. Seriously?...The guy who said PA. was a toss up before the election |
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is a Democrat....Obama won PA by 11%...
Ok, bad assumption on my part then, :dunce:
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Captain Hilts
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Tue Sep-15-09 09:26 PM
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8. Turnout was all over the board in '08. It's hard to outguess that. nt |
Zynx
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Tue Sep-15-09 10:02 PM
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13. His accuracy sucked compared to other pollsters. |
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That's a statistical fact.
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Captain Hilts
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Tue Sep-15-09 10:03 PM
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14. And he's been accurate when others were not. It's a bit of a crapshoot. nt |
SemiCharmedQuark
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Tue Sep-15-09 10:04 PM
Response to Reply #14 |
16. There is no crapshoot involving his interactive polls-they're horrible. |
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He should not pretend that they are anything other than a vague idea of a poll but he pretends like they are valid.
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SemiCharmedQuark
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Tue Sep-15-09 10:00 PM
Response to Reply #5 |
12. Zogby's regular polls are OK, but his "interactive" polls violate a basic principle of statistics |
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Edited on Tue Sep-15-09 10:02 PM by SemiCharmedQuark
Those polls do not use a random sample. The fact that, as a pollster, he KNOWS this and STILL goes on TV with these interactive polls as though they are valid pisses me off.
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Captain Hilts
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Tue Sep-15-09 10:03 PM
Response to Reply #12 |
15. They are just doing them to see what populations answer those things and how it |
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changes over time and how it compares with other surveys.
They're meaningless beyond that.
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SemiCharmedQuark
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Tue Sep-15-09 10:05 PM
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17. They are meaningless, but that doesn't stop Zogby from running to Fox News with the results. |
Captain Hilts
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Tue Sep-15-09 10:17 PM
Response to Reply #17 |
19. So long as they identify them as what they are, it's okay. Folks here are always running |
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to do online surveys.
I think they're all pretty stupid,
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uponit7771
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Tue Sep-15-09 09:32 PM
Response to Original message |
9. Gallup, SUSA.....Rasmusen undersamples and even weights |
Drunken Irishman
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Tue Sep-15-09 09:39 PM
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10. I generally just average them all together and I think you get about the right number. |
Kaleva
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Tue Sep-15-09 09:56 PM
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11. The one that gives Obama the highest approval rating is the best. |
cherokeeprogressive
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Tue Sep-15-09 11:03 PM
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KittyWampus
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Tue Sep-15-09 10:12 PM
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Zynx
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Tue Sep-15-09 11:09 PM
Response to Reply #18 |
21. Agreed. They are pretty much always the most accurate and ask questions in the least skewed way. |
masuki bance
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Tue Sep-15-09 11:22 PM
Response to Original message |
22. I use these two resources- |
Nicholas D Wolfwood
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Wed Sep-16-09 08:10 AM
Response to Original message |
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Rasmussen is consistent, so if you just shift 2 or 3 points over to the Democratic side, you'll usually get something accurate. Daily Kos/R2000 actually seems pretty decent too, even with the obvious bias.
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Wed Apr 24th 2024, 07:13 PM
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