I smell the death of the modern Republican Party.

[Writer]

I'm not saying that the GOP will cease to exist, but that its general ideological and institutional structure will likely change in the coming years following a succession of destructive cultural decisions within the party.

A public institution cannot continue surviving by stoking the fires of hatred when the larger public detests that type of hatred. This isn't 1930 anymore; we are long past the idea of the African-American/Communist/Socialist/Nazi bogeyman. The general public is not only significantly more diverse, but the current dominant ideology resists the worn out lines of rejecting the Other. We have traveled through decades of postmodern development in our approach to culture and now most people in the general American public seek to empower others, not blindly accept their oppression.

The GOP is trying to roll out young energy by schooling college-aged students on the art of journalism and rhetoric to enliven the party's political discourse (ref: Acorn hit job kids and the kiddo on Bill Maher last night), and this will fail. These 20-somethings are out-matched intellectually by reality. They can engage in rhetorical exchanges but won't be able to overcome the simple refutation that their outlandish claims are not based in anything concrete.

The answer to this is not whether the fringes of either party will be successful in their propaganda, but whether the current mood of those in the middle will be more susceptible specific types of party narratives.

The narrative that the GOP is permitting within its ranks is so contrary to the general body politic at the moment that they will see further erosion of their party's support. I certainly cannot imagine how their scare tactics can be in any way palatable to the larger public. They are going to have to start moving back toward the center - toward the left, yes - in order to survive. They will learn this following the successful passage of health insurance reform in this country - even WITHOUT the public option. (Even the Baucus bill doesn't have Republican support... and that is as watered-down as one can get.)

So to say that the Republican Party will survive is a far-fetched idea, but to say that it will continue to survive in its current form will be a stretch at least. The forces of culture are weighing into our general political culture, and they do not bode well for the GOP's current strategies. If they do not adjust, they will fail.

[Indigent]

1. They're driving away moderates

And that's not good.

[DJ13]

3. No, its not good

They're driving the moderate conservatives over into our party, and were seeing the impact already with the so called blue dogs.

[proud2BlibKansan]

25. You are correct, it's not good. Here in my red state, those moderates switch parties

And while I appreciate growing the Democratic party in my state, the addition of these former Republicans just dilutes our progressive values that we have worked so hard to build in our party.

[vi5]

2. If this is the case....

then why am I hearing more and more moderate, non-wingnut friends and aquaintances, many of whom even voted for Obama, being swayed by their misinformation campaign? Yes, what they are preaching is a dangerous, divisive message of hate, selfishness, and obstructionism. But given the emotional and mental state of much of the country due to the poor economy it is one that will have appeal to and resonance with quite a few people. So unless our side (meaning the democratic party as a whole) starts standing up for these people and taking stands and actually actually making tangible changes that are better for their lives rather than continually trying to split the difference between some stuff that may be good for poor people but also stuff that may be good for the rotten corporations that put people in this situation to begin with then the republicans will be ascendant and we will continue to decline by trying to continually be middle of the road.

[lunatica]

4. They don't stand for anything right now

They're being contrarians in the most extreme way they can and offer absolutely nothing positive or constructive to the real problems we're having now. Nothing. They're aim right now is to destroy Obama at the expense of the country and the planet. Most of them don't care about anything else and they probably never did. There's a reason why they marched in lockstep behind Bush and approved of every destructive move he ever made.

Every one knows it's unconsitutional for the Supreme Court to select the President, but they chose to ignore it because it was their guy who was selected. They scream right now about their rights and free speech and yet they never said a word when Bush spied on them. Some even said they didn't have anything to hide so it was OK to be spied on. They're addicted to their anger and need to whip it into a frothing rage on a daily basis.

When was the last time a Republican talked about creating jobs? About cleaning up the environment? When was the last time a single one of them accepted Obama's invitation to talk? All they want to do is destroy Obama specifically and the Democrats in general.

The Republican party exists in name only.

[XemaSab]

9. It's the party of no

n/t

[Orsino]

5. No, you don't.

You smell sweat, as Republicans are for the first time in a long while facing the prospect of actually having to work. You might also be detecting a little urine, too, as that fear sinks in.

Big Money will prop up the GOP's ludicrous pretensions to representation, with a new wave of soft money scheduled for Monday morning.

[Writer]

6. I'm going to challenge the abstractions you're presenting in your thesis...

How is "Big Money" (assuming corporate help?) going to make the general public overcome their moral convictions to adopt themes of racism and fear of the Other? Doesn't that involve some type of magical intercession to make sure that happens? Also, isn't that a rather ahistorical claim, ignoring the last several decades of cultural change?

I sympathize with your own fears about "Big Money," but I can't see how that would work empirically.

[Orsino]

7. The racism/xenophobia doesn't *have* to work on most Americans.

It's only a dog-whistle now, cynically employed to drive turnout to the occasional public circus. It is but one facet of the corporate agenda.

As far as how Big Money "works," one has only to look at the last few decades--or centuries--of American history. Big Money drives our discourse ever rightward. It makes the odd concession to taste, as in civil rights, but seeks ever-greater control over us. It works well.

[Writer]

8. Mostly agreed...

but how do you describe how Big Money "drives our discourse ever rightward." This is the abstraction that I'm referring to. How does that work empirically?

[Orsino]

14. In practice, this work takes the form of making the left side of the bell curve disappear.

Progressivism is ridiculed as fringe in televised, self-fulfilling prophecy. Most recently we saw (or more properly didn't see) the idea of single-payer universal health care made to vanish, and in its place a steadily-diluted concept of a nonspecific "public option" that threatens no insurance company executive's (or shareholder's) profits. In a time of real financial crisis, the simple fact that a single-payer public health plan can deliver much more care per dollar, despite the fact that such plans have already worked well for decades in medicare, VA and overseas, despite the fact that the constantly-derided "socialism" is how we already get an awful lot done in America, Big Money does not want us to entertain the notion as it is dragged, kicking and screaming, toward some sort of reform.

We see two major parties largely under corporate control, working to dismantle our liberties and rob our families, and no third party gaining traction that might serve our interests, a state of affairs never questioned by the MSM--and never allowed by the MSM to be questioned.

We know of looming ecological disaster, yet the MSM offer no solutions beyond the same ol' consumer capitalism, with occasional vague references to green technologies as mere flavoring.

Big Money drives our discourse as far to the right as it can, for the obvious reason: change threatens the status of the plutocrats. They try to keep our eyes glued to our televisions via a constant stream of pap that appeals to our worst impulses, offering token novelty without daring to promote real change.

[struggle4progress]

15. bingo

[mitchum]

23. +1 (spot on and beautifully said)

[GivePeaceAchance]

10. +1.

[Phx_Dem]

11. Smells like Spring in the air! Actually, it smells like shit in the air, but

if the Republican party collapses under the weight of it's own hate and prejudice, the stench will diminish.

[old mark]

12. We Dems must help nail shut the lid on the coffin - we must get together

in '10 ant VOTE for Democrats whenever possible to keep the GOP in the minority and even decrease their power as much as we can.

We have to stop fighting each other - only temporarily - to get stronger.

I want to see them as small as we can get them, even though it makes them uglier.

markO8)

[unblock]

13. there's just NO WAY the republican party is ending

and it's WAY too premature to think of a single election victory (and hardly a massive one at that -- both parties have survived worse) after a disastrous presidency as a harbigner of the complete death of the republican party.

both parties have evolved, with coalitions shifting over time. as more and more moderates quit the republican party and more and more young people chosethe democratic party, republicans will find a way to peel off some part of our party that isn't happy enough, the way they peeled off the southern racists in the sixties.

the bottom line is that big business has invested far too much money in the republican party to let it fail. they will find a way.

and on the off chance you're right, it will be a meaningless distinction. some opposition party will still form, the big business money and the racists will still go somewhere. they would get fresh branding and a slightly different agenda and we'd be pretty much in the same spot.

the worse possible outcome would be if they could take over the democratic party, and the level of corporate infiltration is already too high for my tastes. if that happens, eventually, even the racists might join the democratic party and then disaffected liberals might just defect to what's left of the republican party.

things might well end up looking like the republican party from the 1800s.


but all this is really idle speculation. the practical reality is that the republican party is far from over.

[proud patriot]

16. It's a Poetic Exticntion

[struggle4progress]

17. Y'know, today's wackos sound a lot like rightwing Republicans I heard when growing up.

They aren't going to go away. They're gonna continue to be loud and ugly as ever. To think otherwise is delusional

It's our task not to let them control the debate. Arguing with the wackos is often counter-productive. It's more important to expose them, and the motives of the power structure that supports them

Most of all, we have to know what we want and why we want it and who opposes it, and then we have to be organized enough to push for it effectively

[MurrayDelph]

18. It will take a little time

but I believe there will eventually be a split into three parties:

Democrats
Republicans
Blue Dogs

The conservative Dems, and the Republicans who aren't batshit crazy will go into the BlueDogs, and the current Republican Party will fade away.

[LatteLibertine]

19. I'm hoping

most poor and middle class people don't let the games the most wealthy and their corporations are playing divide us along racial lines. If people buy into this nonsense and let themselves be duped it could set race relations back years. In addition it will make it all the easier for the Republicans to slide back into office.

If poor and middle class white folks voted for their economic interests the Republican party would have vanished some time ago. I mean there are almost 34 million poor white people in the United States. That's a large block of people. The middle class is yet larger and I am not sure what their numbers are.

[democrat2thecore]

20. We may see the downfall of both parties in our lifetimes

A truly historic few years could be a head of us as the liberal/progressive wing could split from the Democrats. A few smackdowns by the corporate wing of the party (health care, labor rights, foreign policy) and the party could truly split in two. As for the Republicans, the social fundies could flee to their own party without Schwarzenegger, Lindsay Graham, Rudy Giuliani, VT Governor Douglas and, (traditionally anyway), John McCain. This could happen - especially - if the old-line establishment Republicans prevent one of their far-right candidates from being nominated in 2012. We've seen this kind of thing before, but the intensity is far greater today (in both parties) and things are lining up more ideological with less and less party loyalty. Interesting possibilities at any rate.

edit for spelling error.

[quaker bill]

21. Persistent minority

For a very long time the folks with these views were a persistent minority on the back bench of politics. They were perfectly self sustaining in that place. They are now headed back there to stay for a while. Those who were only recently in power and expecting to stay there for life are having huge problems with adjustment, but they will eventually adjust or retire from the field.

When enough of the voters forget why it is a stunningly bad idea to give republicans any power, they will begin to return.

Yes, they will return in a different form. Demographics indicates that their base would not have been sufficient to sustain them in office within the next 10 years. So, change was upon them regardless, this is why Bush/Rove made such an effort toward capturing some larger portion of the hispanic vote and why the Dobbs/Tancredo/zenophobic fringe has now doomed them to minority status.

The Obama campaign brought on this change a bit early, but it was going to happen.

[livetohike]

22. The GOP has become a Saturday morning cartoon with their

supposed "brightest stars". Or maybe it's a soap opera. Sarah Palin, Bobby Jindal, Mark Sanford, et al are all players in this comic tragedy. For Romney to go suck up at the Value Voters summit is a sad comment on the GOP. There are no moderates and their right wing extremism is all they have left.

[Gman2]

24. As always, after the Dems rescue capitalism, the right will

claim that all is well, and time to start up the tax cuts. Then, they will get power, spend everything that could possibly help the weak, and complain that no progressive options can be afforded at this time. Ad Infinitum.

[AllentownJake]

26. Before we get too cocky

In 2004 they said we were dead.

[applegrove]

27. All GOP policy starts with the conclusion = Rich people want money...and then they

work back logically from there be it guns, gays, god or whatnot.

[Jade Fox]

28. The question is how much damage will they do.....

going down.

And I worry about complacency on the part of those who were appalled by the Bush Administration, but now think it is okay to relax.

[LWolf]

29. And the Democratic Party is already dead.

When all is said and done, we'll end up with one purple party.

[Gman2]

31. That is not true, the riht will implode, leaving the progressive libertarian party.

This will draw most from the lost repubs. In fact, that faction comprises the repub base. So, WE will pick up all the moderate repubs, and the PL's will have rabid libertarians, republican base. The numbers of that say dems for decades. Add to that, minorities are being quiet. But, they dont forget the deep insults. While we will not like the transition to all those friggin bluedogs, if we act now, and hard, most of the heavy lifting will be done, by the time we are inert. By comparison. Then, we can rest on our laurels, somewhat. And survive.

[LWolf]

36. All that may be true,

but the Democratic Party will not be the same Democratic Party I have supported during my lifetime. It already isn't.

The "Democratic Party" has evolved away from the party that I want to see.

Adding more republicans will simply make it more purple.

The blue party IS comatose, and fading into the past.

[Bluenorthwest]

30. Self serving, ego blinded and worthless OP

Oh, yeah, all the bigotry is on the GOP side! What a fucking laugh! How we treat the Other? I was literally called 'other' on DU yesterday. I think this one is 'other' he said. He meant 'gay'. The minority the DNC preaches against, and the majority of you straight Democrats vote against, while lavishing praise on yourselves for being 'better than the other bigots' or whatever.
Your entire premise is false, and based on a short sighted, narrow, elitist point of view. If the GOP were the only atavistic anti equality forces out there, we'd have equality. But we deal with bigoted Democrats, and with Democrats who like to pretend Democrats have no such problems.
Self indulgent wanking.
No wide open actually optional public option, there should be no bill, understand? You want to promote this bigoted bill, designed to discriminate against minorities Tim Kaine and Obama do not like, and you demand profits for Private Industry at the cost of my household's survival. And you are praising yourself and criticizing others while you do it.
A Party of Bigots is a Party of Bigots. The US has two of those, not one.
Signed,
"other"

[AlinPA]

32. Data (link) shows that the GOP is getting stronger in most of the south, especially the Appalachians

http://countenance.wordpress.com/2008/11/09/the-red-delta-map/
I don't have any maps for the recent "Teabagging" junk, but it would not surprise me to see more of the same in pockets elsewhere.

[Skidmore]

33. It will not die if our side doesn't start learning how to work together

rather than forming the proverbial circular firing squad it always does or trying to subvert the efforts of the President we put in office. I'm personally getting as sick of us as I am of them. Today I spent watching the Ace of Cakes because I just can't stand witnessing the garbage from the right on teevee in the media and the lack of a coherent voice from the left. I just want to hurl because it makes me feel so stressed anymore.

[polmaven]

34. Can you really put those together?

"modern" & "Republican Party"? They seem to be absolute opposites, don't they?

[chieftain]

35. I think as things stand now you are right, but

what scares me is the possibility of the economy tanking further. Radical movements thrive in times of economic unrest. If things are not improving significantly, the appeal of conspiracy theories and racial and ethnic scapegoating could spike upward. This is especially true when you consider the power of corporate money coupled with the willingness of a substantial part of the country to be entertained and enlightened by ex disc jockeys.
We need for President Obama to succeed. It is not hypebolic to think that the future of democratic government in the US depends on it.

[anonymous171]

37. It won't die unless we kill it. We are going to have to get our hands dirty.

Because they are not going down without a fight.