VA-Gov: Two Polls Show Deeds Closing In, One Doesn't

[ccharles000]

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5610/vagov-two-polls-show-deeds-closing-in-one-doesnt

Three new polls have come out over the past few days of the Virginia gubernatorial race. Let's run through all three, starting with the newest.

Taylor Nelson Sofres for the Washington Post (9/14-17, likely voters, 8/11-14 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 47 (39)
Bob McDonnell (R): 51 (54)
Undecided: 7 (2)
(MoE: ±3.1%)

WaPo has more on where these new Deeds voters are coming from:

Following news coverage of the thesis, the poll offers fresh evidence the tactic might be working: The percentage of likely voters who see McDonnell as "too conservative" has jumped 10 points since the August poll and corresponds with a double-digit increase in the number seeing Deeds as "just about right" ideologically. The percentage of independent female voters seeing McDonnell as too conservative is now significantly higher than it had been.

In August, independent women favored McDonnell 59 to 31 percent; now they split 50 percent for Deeds to 47 percent for McDonnell. <...>

In Northern Virginia, where statewide Democrats have been successful but Deeds was slow to win support, he now leads McDonnell, 57 to 40 percent, among likely voters. In the innermost Washington suburbs, Deeds leads 63 to 34 percent. A month ago, the two men were running about even in Northern Virginia.

Nearly half of likely voters, 46 percent, say they have heard a "great deal" or a "good amount" about the thesis, and among those who say it will affect their vote, the influence is broadly negative. Most, though, see the thesis as not having an impact, and very few -- less than 1 percent -- call the thesis the most important issue in the campaign.

However, GOP voters are still more pumped up about voting -- 36% of McDonnell supporters are "very enthusiastic" about voting for their candidate, while only 22% of Deeds supporters feel the same way. That's a higher score for both candidates than they received in last month's poll, but McDonnell had the bigger gain.

Less optimistic is the latest Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos (9/14-16, likely voters, 8/3-5 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 43 (43)
Bob McDonnell (R): 50 (51)
Undecided: 7 (6)
(MoE: ±4%)

The needle barely budged here despite McDonnell's thesis blow-up. (Indeed, women prefer Deeds by only a three-point margin, which is barely changed from Deeds' one-point lead in August.) Others are reading the needle a little differently.

[BzaDem]

1. The first poll's numbers add up to 105.

Good info though. Maybe R2K's weightings underestimate groups that any recent change of opinion was in.

[dsc]

2. they flipped the undecideds

It should be that 2% are undecided now and 7% were in August.