Rasmussen has Obama's approval 1 point higher than Gallup

[jenmito]

:wtf: The RW Rasmussen has his approval at 51% while Gallup has it at 50%:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx

[tridim]

1. It's going to go up at least 5 points by Monday. nt

[jenmito]

2. Who KNOWS. You'd think they would've gone up 5 points after Obama's appearances

on the 5 Sunday shows and then Letterman.

[mvd]

4. I think after health care gets passed, there will be a jump..

that will last. I think now, the apprehensiveness leads some to say "disapprove."

[jenmito]

7. You're probably right...

I saw a poster here who said he was polled in the latest NBC/WSJ poll and he said HE disapproved...

[Gman2]

26. We just stopped TWO HUGE terrorist attacks. Domestic, Freeper type.

[jenmito]

32. Strangely, though, we don't hear ANYTHING about it in regards to giving credit

to Obama/the govt.

[NYC Democrat]

3. Ras has been been much more eratic then gallup recently with variations from 45% to 52%

in the last few weeks while Gallup has been consistent with 50 to 54%.

[jenmito]

5. I don't agree that it's been "much more erratic" when you look day by day...

but I don't understand why Obama's poll numbers would be at his lowest today after all the interviews he's done and appearances he's made.

[Jennicut]

6. Not sure...I look at Gallup every day and it seems to fluctuate for no reason

and then go back up. I wonder if they ever put what % of Dems and Rethugs they poll.

[jenmito]

10. So do I...

every day at 1pm I check out the Gallup poll. And I, too, wonder what % of Dems. and Repubs. they poll day by day, especially since it was discovered they polled the same % of Repubs. as Dems. in their poll of "pro-life" vs. pro-choice.

[johnaries]

20. Ras polls daily, but the published results are a 3-day "rolling"

average. So, if an event cause a bug jump one day, averaging in the previous 2 days will dilute the results.

[jenmito]

23. Good point...

but their polls are still almost always about 5-10% lower than most others.

[johnaries]

27. I have found the same, going back to when Bush was in office.

They always favored Repubs or disfavored Dems by about 5% compared to other pollsters.

Remember, they gained their rep because they were the closest to the "final results" of the 2004 Election. Which we all know was fraudulent. That should say something right there.

[jenmito]

31. Yup...

exactly.

[tritsofme]

35. Yep, since he blew it so bad in 2000, the Bush guys must have leaked him the magic

"vote fraud" numbers in 2004 so he could gain credibility. That is essentially your theory right?

To what do you contribute his continued accuracy?

Republicans will naturally be favored in sample that includes "likely voters" as opposed to the much broader and more diverse sample of "national adults" This has more to do than anything with any perceived bias of Rasmussen's numbers compared to other polling organizations. Most polling outfits don't start touting their likely voter models until the months before the election, while Rasmussen runs it full time and doesn't generally release its numbers on all adults.

Not everything is a conspiracy.

[johnaries]

36. What "continued accuracy"? That's my point. They are NOT

accurate.

[tritsofme]

39. Only in fantasyland.

I suppose 2006 and 2008 were also rigged elections.

[johnaries]

45. Actually, yes. But they couldn't rig them enough. But in all seriousness

we are not talking about election polls. We are talking about favorability polls. Rasmussen uses a different methodology for favorability polls.

[Teaser]

40. it's supposed to do that.

that's what random sampling does.

[mvd]

9. I don't understand, either.

Unless the extra exposure on the talk shows led to more Freepers answering.

I'm a Kucinich fan, and I still approve. While some things have not gone as fast as I would like, I think Obama is trying.

[jenmito]

11. Yeah...

it's possible they're POLLING more Repubs. Gallup is known to do that.

I'm happy to hear you still approve of Obama-especially since you're a Kucinich fan. :hi:

[mvd]

15. Thanks, jenmito!

Have a good day. :hi:

[jenmito]

16. You, too,

mvd! :hi:

[bigwillq]

8. Polls go up and down.

I never figured out why people care so much.

[jenmito]

12. I care because supposedly dropping approval numbers

embolden Repubs. to oppose Obama.

[bigwillq]

25. They're going to do that

no matter what those polls say.

[MadBadger]

13. Rasmussen has been in the neighborhood with his approval numbers

Its his disapproval numbers that are suspect, because both numbers hang around 50 percent when in reality they are in the late 30s and early 40s

[jenmito]

14. True about the disapproval numbers...

those are REALLY outliers.

[tritsofme]

17. Rasmussen has proven his accuracy through numerous election cycles.

I have always found their vilification here incredibly silly.

Rasmussen's sample of likely voters as opposed to Gallup's national adults would seem to indicate that the Gallup number is even lower when looked at comparatively with Rasmussen.

[jenmito]

18. That's bull...

he's almost ALWAYS an outlier on the low side.

[tritsofme]

19. That's because he uses likely voters.

It will always reflect worse on Obama than a poll of all adults.

You're not comparing the same metric head to head.

[johnaries]

37. They also weight their samples. It's the weighting that is the most

questionable. But the rolling averages and other methods are suspect as well. But they do seem to be consistent, favoring Republicans by around 5% consistently.

[Teaser]

42. and using likely voters this far out is laughed at by most

electoral statisticians.

[tritsofme]

44. When we get right down to it, any polling at this time is laughable.

Today's numbers are in no way predictive of the 2010 elections, let alone 2012.

We are arguing semantics over essentially worthless data that these polling outfits need to release in off years to maintain their relevance and stay in business.

[quiller4]

43. Rasmussen's screen for likely voters tends to be too old, too white

and too Republican compared to the other pollsters that also screen for likely voters.

[Nancy_Thompson]

21. Rasmussen can't be relied on

at least not by me. Fron June of 08 until the election I checked every poll several times a day. One stark difference about Rasmussen was that they featured ads on their front page. The ads were consistently always McCain Campaign, RNC and republican candidates.

Scott Rasmussen is also a regular contributer/pundit on Fox news. Those two things combined show a bias and for that reason I give Rasmussen polls no weight.

[jenmito]

22. I agree...

you sound just like me! I noticed the same things. :hi:

[tritsofme]

24. You can make it personal and ignore good info if you like, but I'm interested in results.

I don't care what his politics are if he is accurate.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/final_rasmussen_poll_results_presidential_election

[babylonsister]

28. Baloney, pure and simple.

And this is just two articles of many I've read.

http://mediamatters.org/blog/200907070015

Why it's increasingly difficult to take Rasmussen polls seriously

http://mediamatters.org/research/200908050011

Matthews misrepresents flawed poll to suggests Dems are similar to birthers

[tritsofme]

30. I wouldn't want to have dinner and drinks with the guy.

But his numbers are consistently validated by elections.

[johnaries]

38. Only the fraudulent ones!

:rofl:

[jenmito]

33. I was surprised that Matthews used that poll...

since once before, when a Repub. quoted the numbers of a Rasmussen poll, he answered that they don't USE Rasmussen polls at MSNBC.

[Teaser]

41. Rasmussen works before elections because of their likely boter screen.

but using a likely voter screen this far from an election is stupid, yet Ras does it. No one has any clue about likely voters right now.

[Robbins]

29. Polls

I am begining to think Gallup IS RAS Lite.Consider that Fox own polling has Obama at 54 Percent.CBS/NY
Times has him at 56 ,and CNN has him at 58 percent.Now none of them are actully Liberal Organziations.
The New York Times buried the Illegal wiretapping till a year after the 2004 election.CBS fired
Dan Rather for the Bush national guard story yet CNN keeps Lou Dodds on.And always remember Obama
Is much stronger than Bill Clontin was at this time In 1993.

[jenmito]

34. I agree...

especially since it was discovered Gallup polled the same % of Repubs. as Dems. in their poll of "pro-life" vs. pro-choice earlier this year.