What Time Do Close Races Get Called?

[liberalpragmatist]

I'm asking you guys to remember back to previous close election years. I know about 2000 - but 1976, 1968, 1960 - of course, polling technology was different then, but even so, generally how late did it take for the race to be called?

And if Kerry wins by about 5 points -- my current prediction is Kerry 52 Bush 47 -- how long do you think that'll take?

[DaveinMD]

1. generally

the races have been called when the polls in California close. There was controversy in 80 because the networks closed it before then.

[tedoll78]

2. I'm not sure.

There are two options as I see it:

1) The networks call a state only after its own polls have closed. To hell with how this would affect states in other time zones!

2) The networks wait and call nothing until ALL state polls are closed.

I suspect that it's #1, but I'm not sure. For this post, I'll assume #1.

The evening will come with some clues early-on:

1) New Hampshire - if Kerry wins this, it's a nice early sign that Bush won't be running-away with the race. If Kerry wins handily, it would give me confidence that he's going to win nearly all of the Gore states.

2) North Carolina & Virginia - if Kerry wins one, it's all over. You can break-open the bubbly right then and there. If it's close-but-no-cigar, it's still a good sign that we're doing better than in 2000.

3) West Virginia - if Kerry wins this, we can conclude that Florida and Ohio are not must-wins. All Kerry would need in this case is the Gore States + New Hampshire + West Virginia + any one other state. Nice!

And so on..

It should be an interesting night. I'm considering getting Fox News for that month.. just to see the looks on their faces when Kerry is declared the winner. (and to see if the graphics they use are any different..)

[blondeatlast]

4. Traditionally, they have used option #1.

After the 2000 debacle, CNNSAID it would no longer call prior to close of polling in West Coast states.

They SAID it, but that was a long time ago for them.

They had a modicum of respectability then, too.

[AndyTiedye]

5. If We Don't Get Robbed Again

If this election is a repeat of the 2000 electoral coup-de-tat,
watching that on Fauxnews might cause me to lose it.

[Ready4Change]

3. According to FOX...

September 23rd.